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Nigeria May Slide Into Another Recession Soon — Finance Minister

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Zainab Ahmed, minister of finance, says unless Nigeria achieves a very strong third quarter 2020 economic performance, the country may slide into recession.

Ahmed disclosed this at the opening of a five-day interactive session on the 2021-2023 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP), held on Thursday in Abuja.

The interactive session was organized by the house of representatives committee on finance, chaired by James Faleke, the lawmaker representing Ikeja federal constituency.

Ahmed, who was represented by Clement Agba, the minister of state for finance, said the COVID-19 pandemic had put further pressure on Nigeria’s foreign exchange.

He said the COVID-19 pandemic resulting in the crash of global oil prices among other economic factors had adversely affected the nation’s economy, with the Gross Domestic Product growth for Q2 most likely to be negative.

The World Bank had in July warned that the collapse in oil prices resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic was expected to plunge the Nigerian economy into a severe economic recession, the worst since the 1980s.

The global bank had stated this in its latest Nigeria Development Update.

Agba had read out a written presentation by the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs. Zainab Ahmed, titled ‘Draft 2021-2023 MTEF/FSP: Presentation to the House Finance Committee.’

The minister said the Nigerian economy faced serious challenges in the first half of 2020 with the microeconomic environment significantly disrupted by the pandemic.

The document partly read, “The impact of these developments is about 65 percent decline in projected net 2020 government revenues from the oil and gas sector, with adverse consequences for foreign exchange inflows into the economy.

“Nigeria is exposed to spikes in risk aversion in the global capital markets, which will put further pressure on the foreign exchange market as foreign portfolio investors exit the Nigerian market.

“Nigeria’s Q2 GDP growth is in all likelihood negative, and unless we achieve a very strong Q3 2020 economic performance, the Nigerian economy is likely to lapse into the second recession in four years, with significant adverse consequences.

“In response to the developments affecting the supply of foreign exchange to the economy, the Central Bank of Nigeria adjusted the official exchange rate to N360/USD1, and more recently to N379/USD.

“The disruptions in global trade and logistics would negatively affect Customs duty collections in 2020.

“The COVID-19 containment measures, though necessary, have inhibited domestic economic activities, with a consequential negative impact on taxation and other government revenues.

“Consequently, the projections for Customs duty, stamp duty, Value Added Tax, and Company Income Tax revenues were recently reviewed downwards in the revised 2020 budget.

“Customs revenue has generally performed close to target over the last few years, exceeding the target in 2019.”

While noting that there had been some improvement in Company Income Tax and VAT remittances, the minister said the Federal Government expected significant improvements in VAT collections with the new VAT rate of 7.5 percent.

The minister said, “Over the past five years, actual revenue performance averaged 61.4 percent.

“Some of our reforms are yielding positive results, with significant improvements between 2018 and 2019. We believe we can do more to improve revenues, especially remittances from GOEs, possibly up to N1tn per annum.”

Speaking on the key assumptions of the MTEF/FSP, the minister, among others, said, “Inflation, however, is expected to remain above single-digit over the medium term, given the structural issues impacting on the cost of doing business, including the high cost of distribution.”

On the management of the fiscal crisis, the minister noted that fiscal measures were being instituted to improve government revenue and entrench a regime of prudence, with emphasis on achieving value for money.

“The goal of fiscal interventions will be to keep the economy active through carefully calibrated regulatory/policy measures designed to boost domestic value addition, de-risk the enterprise environment, attract external investment and sources of funding, etc.,” the minister stated.

The minister noted that the draft 2021-2023 MTEF/FSP was prepared against the backdrop of a global recession and heightened global economic uncertainty.

The document further read, “The medium-term outlook for Nigeria suggests that fiscal risks are somewhat elevated, largely due to COVID-19 related disruptions, which have exacerbated structural weaknesses in the economy.

“Nigeria faces significant medium-term fiscal challenges, especially with respect to its revenues, which, if not addressed, could snowball into a debt sustainability crisis.”

Already, Nigerians are becoming agitated by the rising debt profile of the country, with the National Assembly raising concerns over external loan agreements between Nigeria and global bodies, especially the China Export-Import Bank.

BIG STORY

JUST IN: Dangote Refinery Increases Petrol Price By N100, MRS To Sell At N839

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The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has increased the ex-gantry price of its premium motor spirit, also known as petrol, to N799 per litre.

The price of the product was increased by N100, from N699 per litre to N799 per litre, effective on December 12, 2025.

In a statement on Tuesday, the refinery said MRS retail outlets will now sell the product at N839 per litre — up from N739 per litre.

“With the festive period concluded, PMS prices have been modestly realigned to sustainable levels to support long-term market stability and affordability,” the refinery said.

“Under the current alignment, the PMS gantry price is N799 per litre, while MRS retail outlets are selling at N839 per litre.”

The refinery reaffirmed its commitment to market stability and an uninterrupted nationwide supply of petrol.

“During the recent festive period, the Refinery implemented a deliberate and temporary price support intervention to cushion Nigerians at a time of heightened household spending,” the plant said.

Despite the price reduction, the refinery accused “many filling stations” of failing to “reflect the new price at the pump,” thereby denying Nigerians the benefits of the slash.

“As a domestic producer, Dangote Petroleum Refinery continues to shield the Nigerian market from import-related volatility and external supply disruptions, while remaining a stabilising force in the downstream petroleum sector,” the plant said.

Dangote refinery reaffirmed its commitment to providing energy security, price stability, and long-term value for Nigerians.

Speaking on the development, David Bird, chief executive officer (CEO), said the refinery is currently supplying about 50 million litres of petrol to the domestic market daily, with nationwide distribution running smoothly.

He explained that the refinery’s flexible design allows it to process different types of crude and intermediate feed stocks, making it possible to maintain petrol supply even during scheduled maintenance.

Bird added that this ensures that domestic fuel availability remains stable and uninterrupted.

“This marked the second consecutive festive season in which the Refinery absorbed significant costs in the national interest, including logistics support in 2024 and a price reduction in 2025 to promote affordability and market calm.”

 

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BIG STORY

Alaafin, Soun Absent As Makinde Kicks Off Oyo 50th Anniversary

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Two prominent traditional rulers in Oyo State—the Soun of Ogbomoso, Oba Olaoye Ghandi, and the Alaafin of Oyo, Oba Akeem Owoade—were conspicuously absent as Governor Seyi Makinde inaugurated the 50th anniversary of the state on Monday.

Family members of former governors, traditional and religious leaders, top government functionaries, and political stakeholders gathered at the International Conference Centre, Ibadan, to celebrate the state, which was created on February 3, 1976, from the former Western Region of Nigeria, with Ibadan as its administrative capital.

The state government had unveiled a week-long programme for the anniversary on January 21, 2026. The events include religious services, cultural exhibitions, an awards and dinner night, and a public lecture titled, “Consolidating The Legacy, Navigating The Present And Reimagining The Future.”

Governor Makinde had appointed Saheed Fijabi, a former member of the House of Representatives, as chairman of the 11-member planning committee for the anniversary.

While the Olubadan of Ibadan and Chairman of Oyo Council of Obas, Oba Rashidi Ladoja, attended the ceremony along with other traditional rulers, the absence of the Alaafin and the Soun drew attention, especially following Makinde’s recent decision to make the chairmanship of the Oyo Council of Obas rotational among the Alaafin, Soun, and Olubadan. Previously, the position had been permanently reserved for the Alaafin.

At Oba Ladoja’s recent inauguration, Makinde stated that the new arrangement had the buy-in of all three monarchs.

However, the Alaafin quickly issued a rebuttal, claiming he was never part of any meeting where such an agreement was reached.

Monday’s event was the first state function since the governor’s decision and the Alaafin’s rebuttal.

Efforts by our correspondent to get the reactions of spokesmen for the Alaafin and Soun, Bode Durojaye and Peter Olaleye, respectively, were not successful as their telephone numbers could not be reached.

Meanwhile, during the event, Governor Makinde cut the anniversary cake and highlighted his administration’s commitment to building a stronger, competitive economy that creates jobs, attracts investments, and expands opportunities for residents.

‘He emphasised that the next 50 years should deliver greater prosperity, fairness, dignity, and hope for all citizens.

Makinde also reflected on the legacy of former Governor Bola Ige, particularly his provision of free textbooks, furniture, and learning materials, which he said helped shape Oyo State’s governance ethos and belief in equal opportunity.

The governor further highlighted the digital tribute platform established for the anniversary, which has collected hundreds of citizen stories illustrating resilience, enterprise, and a sense of belonging.

“Today, one resident runs a business employing eight young people. Another tribute reflects the quiet pride of citizens whose lives have been nurtured and educated in Oyo State. These stories are not just tributes; they are evidence of opportunity, enterprise, hope, and belonging,” he said.

He commended service commanders and security agencies in the state for maintaining peace and security, assuring them of continued government support. Makinde urged residents to actively participate in anniversary activities, with the grand finale scheduled for Tuesday, January 27, 2026.

Earlier, Fijabi, chairman of the planning committee, outlined the historical significance, leadership, and development milestones of the state, emphasizing that the celebration represents both a reflection on the past and a declaration of intent for sustained progress.

Olubadan Oba Rashidi Ladoja, in his remarks, called for recognition of past political leaders and unsung heroes whose contributions laid the foundation for Oyo State’s growth. He reflected on political leadership in the Third Republic, including Chief Kolapo Adewuyi Ishola and his deputy, Ahmed Gbadamosi, as well as subsequent administrations of former Governors Rashidi Ladoja and Otunba Christopher Adebayo Alao-Akala, highlighting their impact on the state’s development trajectory.

Among the citizen stories highlighted was that of Toluwaloju Foluso, a National Youth Service Corps member in 2021, who invested his allowance in learning fashion design during his service year. The story exemplifies the opportunities and enterprise nurtured by the state, reflecting Makinde’s message of resilience, progress, and citizen empowerment.

The absence of the Alaafin and Soun, coupled with their earlier objections to the rotational chairmanship of the Oyo Council of Obas, suggests underlying tensions within the state’s traditional institutions, even as the government pushes forward with anniversary celebrations and governance initiatives.

Governor Makinde, however, stressed that the administration remains committed to inclusive governance, economic growth, and public engagement, asserting that Oyo State’s next 50 years must be defined by prosperity, innovation, and opportunity for all residents.

 

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BIG STORY

JUST IN: Defence Headquarters Finally Confirms Coup Attempt Against Tinubu, Indicted Officers To Face Military Trial

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The Defence Headquarters on Monday said investigations into alleged misconduct by some officers revealed claims of a plot to overthrow the government.

In October 2025, the DHQ announced the arrest of 16 officers over acts of indiscipline and breaches of service regulations.

It was reported on October 18 that the officers — ranging in rank from Captain to Brigadier General — were arrested by the Defence Intelligence Agency for allegedly holding secret meetings to topple the government.

The platform also linked the cancellation of the October 1 Independence Day parade to the alleged plot.

Reacting at the time, the former Director of Defence Information, Brigadier General Tukur Gusau, said the publication was intended to create tension and distrust among Nigerians, adding that the matter was strictly a disciplinary issue handled internally.

“The ongoing investigation involving the sixteen officers is a routine internal process aimed at ensuring discipline and professionalism are maintained within the ranks. An investigative panel has been duly constituted, and its findings will be made public,” the statement said.

Providing an update on Monday, the new Director of Defence Information, Major General Samaila Uba, said a comprehensive investigation had been conducted in line with established military procedures.

He said the findings showed that some of the officers had cases to answer over allegations of plotting to overthrow the government and that the investigation report has now been forwarded to the appropriate superior authority.

The statement partly read, “The Defence Headquarters issued a press statement in October 2025 regarding the arrest of sixteen officers over acts of indiscipline and breaches of service regulations.

“The Armed Forces of Nigeria wishes to inform the general public that investigations into the matter have been concluded and the report forwarded to the appropriate superior authority in line with extant regulations.

“The comprehensive investigation process, conducted in accordance with established military procedures, has carefully examined all circumstances surrounding the conduct of the affected personnel.

“The findings have identified several officers with allegations of plotting to overthrow the government, which is inconsistent with the ethics, values and professional standards required of members of the AFN.”

Uba said those indicted would be formally arraigned before relevant military judicial panels to face trial in line with the Armed Forces Act and other applicable service regulations.

He stressed that the process would ensure accountability while upholding fairness and due process.

He emphasized that the measures being taken were purely disciplinary and formed part of institutional mechanisms aimed at preserving order, discipline, and operational effectiveness within the ranks.

Uba added, “Accordingly, those with cases to answer will be formally arraigned before appropriate military judicial panels to face trial in accordance with the Armed Forces Act and other applicable service regulations. This ensures accountability while upholding the principles of fairness and due process.

“The AFN reiterates that measures being taken are purely disciplinary and part of ongoing institutional mechanisms to preserve order, discipline, and operational effectiveness within the ranks.

“The Armed Forces remain resolute in maintaining the highest standards of professionalism, loyalty, and respect for constitutional authority.”

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