The governorship contest for Ogun State in 2027 has officially begun.

INEC has blown the whistle, full campaigns have started, and anyone who lives, does business, or has family in Ogun State knows the political space is fully activated. The billboards are up, the consultations are nightly, and the debates in beer parlours, market stalls, and WhatsApp groups are getting intense.

I write from Lagos, but with business and family interests across Abeokuta, Ijebu-Ode, and Ota, Ogun politics is not abstract to me. It affects my daily reality.

At the centre of this unfolding drama are two leading contenders whose names dominate every conversation.

The Two Leading Contenders

First is Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, popularly known as Yayi. A three-term federal lawmaker from Lagos West to Ogun West, and currently Chairman of the Senate Appropriation Committee. Yayi is known for a very unusual brand of senatorial representation – heavily focused on facilitation of projects and mass empowerment programmes across all wards of Ogun West. He has built a reputation as a highly networked politician with a formidable structure across the state.

Second is Hon. Oladipupo Adebutu, widely known as Lado. A thoroughbred Ogun politician. Member of the House of Representatives in the early 90s, governorship candidate of the PDP in 2019 and 2023, and a grassroots mobilizer with deep roots in Remo. He is from Iperu-Remo, the same town as the incumbent Governor, Prince Dapo Abiodun. As the son of Sir Kessington Adebukunola Adebutu, a man whose philanthropic footprint is legendary across Nigeria, Lado brings both political experience and enormous goodwill.

Both men are experienced, both are prepared, and by all indications, both have the financial capacity to run a full-scale governorship campaign across 236 wards. This is not going to be a contest for the faint-hearted.

The Noise Around Nativity

One narrative that has unfortunately dominated the last few weeks is the question of nativity.

Whispers about where a candidate’s father was buried, where he originally hails from, and whether he is truly from Ogun State.

I think this is a disservice to Ogun people. Ogun State, the cradle of the educated elite in Nigeria, has always voted based on capacity and promise, not narrow identity politics.

During a visit to Abeokuta recently, I overheard a conversation among some young graduates that summarized the mood of many. Their point was simple: they have seen tangible empowerment programmes executed by Senator Yayi as a serving Senator in Ogun West, and they are more interested in who can scale that to the entire state than in debates about origin.

Whether one supports Yayi or Lado, we must agree that Ogun people deserve an issues-based campaign. The two leading candidates have a responsibility to tell their supporters to focus on manifestos, not personal attacks. That is the Ogun way.

The Deeper Conversation: Equity and Zoning

If we move past the noise, Ogun faces a deeper, more structural conversation – equity.

Let us look at history:

– 1979-1983: Chief Olabisi Onabanjo – Ogun East (Ijebu)
– 1992-1993: Chief Olusegun Osoba – Ogun Central (Egba)
– 1999-2003: Chief Olusegun Osoba again – Ogun Central
– 2003-2011: Otunba Gbenga Daniel – Ogun East (Ijebu)
– 2011-2019: Senator Ibikunle Amosun – Ogun Central (Egba)
– 2019-Date: Prince Dapo Abiodun – Ogun East (Remo/Iperu)

Ogun State was created in February 1976. About 50 years after its creation, Ogun West – the Yewa-Awori zone comprising 5 local governments with huge industrial potential in Ota/Agbara and massive agricultural land in Imeko, Ipokia and Yewa North – has never produced a Governor.

This is not a small statistic. It is a historical imbalance.

This is where the Iperu question becomes unavoidable. If Governor Abiodun, who is from Iperu-Remo in Ogun East, completes his term in 2027, how do we justify another Governor from the same town, Iperu, immediately succeeding him? Even within Ogun East, there are Ijebu, Remo North, Shagamu, and other areas that would also feel shortchanged.

Can one town produce two Governors back-to-back in a diverse state of four divisions? That question bothers many neutral stakeholders I have spoken to.

Philanthropy, Structure and Performance

Hon. Adebutu has undeniable strengths. He is a grassroots politician who understands Ogun East politics deeply. He has been consistent since 1992, and he has shown resilience. He also carries the enormous goodwill of the Adebutu family name – a family that has given so much to education, sports, and employment in Ogun State. For many, supporting Lado is a way of appreciating Sir Kessington Adebutu’s decades of philanthropy.

Senator Adeola, on the other hand, brings a different strength – a record of what he did with the legislative power he had. His model in Ogun West has been to turn a senatorial district office into a quasi-development agency – facilitating schools, ICT centres, market support schemes, bursaries, and training programmes. For many outside Ogun West, the question is: can this model be scaled to the whole state?

Interestingly, both offer different answers to the same question Ogun people are asking: Who can create jobs for our graduates, fix our rural roads in Ogun East, address insecurity on our farmlands in Yewa, bring order to our industrial hubs in Ogun Central, and truly empower our market women?

My Final Take

I have friends in both campaigns, and I respect both candidates. Both have paid their dues, and both are eminently qualified to aspire to lead Ogun State.

But Ogun State at this junction must make a choice that goes beyond individual ambition. It must make a choice about inclusion, about fairness, and about performance.

For about 50 years, Ogun West has waited. The agitation for Ogun West to produce the next Governor is not just about Yayi; it is about giving every part of Ogun a sense of belonging in the Gateway State project.

At the same time, Ogun needs a Governor who has shown empathy, who has shown he can use public office to touch ordinary people even before becoming Governor, and who can work tirelessly across all zones.

I leave Ogun people to judge who best fits that description.

Let Ogun choose wisely.

Sola Fajobi is a public affairs analyst. He writes from Lagos.