Marketers of refined petroleum products say petrol and diesel prices may drop as crude oil prices slump again.

However, the marketers who spoke with our correspondent, said the drop may not be immediate, saying it has to do with the stability of the new low prices.

It was gathered that crude prices tumbled below $60 per barrel over the weekend. The prices hovered around $65 as of Friday.

However, on Monday, the benchmark Brent was trading at $59.80 per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate traded around $56.71 a barrel, according to oilprice.com

Nigeria’s Brass River and Qua Iboe stood at $64.60 per barrel. The prices were over $10 below the proposed $75 in the 2025 budget revenue projection. This has also triggered fears about the feasibility of the 2025 budget.

As the fall in crude prices impacts the Federal Government’s revenue negatively, Nigerians are hopeful that this may translate to cheaper fuel at the pumps. Crude oil prices and the foreign exchange rate are the major determinants of refined product prices.

Speaking (in an interview with The Punch), marketers said the prices of petroleum products may come down, but not immediately.

The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, said oil speculators will look at the cause of the price crash and how stable it will be.

“The price of petrol may come down, but it might not be soon. Oil speculators will look at the stability first and the factors that brought the price down. So, if the factors are natural, they will not look at bringing down the price. If it is an artificial factor that can definitely be ratified, they will also leave it and watch.

“So, I think for now, to enjoy stability, they will look at it and leave it this way. Maybe by the next two weeks, if it continues like this, there will be a reduction in refined petroleum products,” Ukadike stated.

Similarly, the President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, explained that some refineries had bought crude before the prices went down.

“Some of these things are the input values that should be able to create a low and high, but it doesn’t take just that same speed to impact the system because there’s always crude feed that has been there before, either it’s a higher price or a lower price.

“But if it’s a lower price, sometimes it’s easy to think it’s better to increase the price now so that you can have money to buy more crude. But the projection will always be that once there is a price fluctuation, it will naturally affect the input cost, and therefore also affect the output prices that will be sold from the retail outlets. So, we should expect such a response.

“But it will not be as fast as Nigeria expects it to be. There are still processes that it will go through,” Gillis-Harry stated.

According to Reuters, oil prices fell by more than $1 a barrel on Monday after OPEC+ decided to accelerate its output hikes, causing concerns about more supply coming into a market clouded by an uncertain demand outlook.

The contracts opened on Monday at their lowest levels since April 9.

Reuters said those moves compounded losses after Brent shed 8.3 per cent and WTI lost 7.5 per cent last week on rising supply concerns after Saudi Arabia signaled it could cope with a prolonged lower price environment.

That offset optimism on the demand side that US-China tariff talks could occur, Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said.

OPEC+ agreed on Saturday to further speed up oil production hikes for a second consecutive month, raising output in June by 411,000 barrels per day.

The June increase by eight participants in the OPEC+ group, which includes non-OPEC member allies like Russia, will take the total combined hikes for April, May, and June to 960,000 bpd, representing a 44 per cent unwinding of the 2.2 million bpd of various cuts agreed on since 2022, according to Reuters calculations.

The President of Dangote Group, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, says he is still fighting for the survival of his $20bn refinery, stressing that “the fight is not yet finished.”

Dangote expressed optimism that he would win the fight for the refinery, stating his determination to fight on.

According to Semafor, an international news medium, Africa’s richest man spoke at an investor forum in Lagos on Friday.

The report stated that Dangote pointed out that some individuals who “for a very, very long time” have “made a lot of money from” government-subsidised oil imports into Nigeria, were the ones trying to sabotage the 650,000 barrels per day oil refinery situated in Lekki, Lagos.

Dangote was quoted as saying that “those groups have funded resistance to the Bola Tinubu government’s removal of petrol subsidies and are opposed to the refinery operating easily in the country.”

However, Dangote was confident that the battle between him and the groups would be won, priding himself as a long-time fighter.

“We’re fighting, and the fight is not yet finished. But I have been fighting all my life, and I am ready and 100 per cent sure I will win at the end of the day,” he was quoted.

Dangote’s latest comments came as Nigeria plans to increase its capacity to stockpile petroleum products, to prepare against shocks to the global oil market following US President Donald Trump’s shake-up of international trade with the threat of tariffs.

Recall that Dangote has since last year raised the alarm that some mafias were sabotaging his refinery.

He specifically mentioned that some international oil companies were sabotaging his investment by denying the facility adequate crude supply despite the domestic crude supply obligation.

Dangote had alleged that the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority was issuing licences to marketers to import substandard petroleum products into the country.

He vowed to push his $20bn refinery to full operational capacity despite what he said were challenges from oil importers seeking to undermine his venture to retain their dominance in the country’s energy sector.

At a point last year, Dangote said he regretted building the refinery, saying the mafias in the oil and gas sector were stronger than those of drugs.

However, he refused to give up on the project as the facility targets its full capacity soon.

Recall that the Dangote Group boss once accused some powerful individuals of frustrating his refinery.

“In a system where, for 35 years, people are used to counting good money, and all of a sudden, they see that the days of counting that money have come to an end, you don’t expect them to pray for you. Of course, you expect them to fight back.

“And I think that is the process that we’re now really going through. But the truth is that, yes, the country, the sub-region, and also the continent of sub-Saharan Africa, need this refinery. So, you expect them to fight through non-supply of crude, non-purchase of the product, but I think it’s all temporary. We’ll get there,” Dangote added.

He had recalled that he was once persuaded by a former Minister of Energy in Saudi Arabia, Khalid Al-Falih, to shelve the idea of building a refinery. However, he said he told the former minister that he did not need his advice.

In June 2024, the Vice President of Oil and Gas at Dangote Industries Limited, Devakumar Edwin, accused IOCs in Nigeria of plans to frustrate the survival of the new Dangote refinery.

Edwin said the IOCs were “deliberately and willfully frustrating” the refinery’s efforts to buy local crude by hiking the cost above the market price, thereby forcing the refinery to import crude from countries as far as the United States, with its attendant high costs.

Edwin also accused the NMDPRA of granting licences indiscriminately to marketers to import dirty refined products into the country.

“It appears that the objective of the IOCs is to ensure that Nigeria remains a country that exports crude oil and imports refined petroleum products. They (IOCs) are keen on exporting the raw materials to their home countries, creating employment and wealth for their countries, adding to their Gross Domestic Product, and dumping the expensive refined products into Nigeria – thus making us dependent on imported products,” Edwin had stated.

The refinery, which started petrol production last September, is seen as a way for Africa’s biggest crude oil producer to end its reliance on the costly importation of refined fuel.

It was reported that the refinery’s entry has helped push down the pump prices of refined products even as retailers count their losses.

With the naira-for-crude deal, the Dangote refinery promised to ensure enough fuel supply to Nigeria, Africa, and the world.

IPMAN supports Dangote

The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria said they are with Dangote as he pushes ahead to fight the cabal.

IPMAN Publicity Secretary, Chinedu Udadike, said Dangote had promised before that he would fight the so-called cabal for the good of the masses, stressing that the association is behind him.

He said the fight is just the usual competition in any business, especially when a product is doing better than others in the market.

“Well, this is business. Competition abounds. There is no businessman whom people will not fight if he is doing well, especially when it is only your goods that are being produced, and the others are not being patronised because of the price. So, it is evident that every businessman wants to survive. It’s not an issue. What we can do is encourage him.

“We independent marketers are happy with him for his price slashes, although sometimes it’s against our own business strategy and projections. But that is part of the business, it is profit and loss.

“You know the factor of demand and supply matter determines the market. So, if he’s talking about how people want to sabotage him, he has told us that he’s ready to fight the oil cabals, and he is in this business to ensure that Nigerians don’t suffer. So, we encourage him not to lose hope, and we independent marketers support him in all ramifications,” Ukadike said.

No need to fight, says PETROAN

The National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, said there should be no form of discord in the downstream.

According to him, Dangote should be allowed to refine its products with the naira-for-crude deal while importers and other traders should be given a level playing field to operate.

Gillis-Harry noted that there should be facts to back up all claims, saying there will be competition in any business, pleading, however, that it should be healthy.

He appealed to the Federal Government to supply enough crude to Dangote and other refineries.

Asked whether he felt the temporary stoppage of the naira-for-crude deal by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited could have prompted Dangote’s comment, he replied that there was a need to review the pilot phase of the deal, emphasising that PETROAN was always in support of the naira petrol sales deal, which he said would make petroleum products available for all Nigerians.

He stressed that other refineries are coming onstream and there will be more competitors in the market.

“I just want all players to do their business without any fight,” the PETROAN boss said.

The naira-for-crude deal ordered by President Bola Tinubu allowed the sale of crude in naira to the Dangote refinery, prompting a crash in fuel prices.

With the supply of crude in naira, the Dangote refinery continued to crash petrol prices across the country. From about N1,100 per litre, the company slashed the price of premium motor spirit to N860.

But importers of petroleum products lamented the repeated reduction of petrol prices by the refinery. Some of the importers lamented that they were compelled to sell below their costs, as consumers only buy from where the product is cheaper.

While Nigerians were rejoicing over the price slashes, fuel importers and retailers said they were counting losses.

Credit: The Punch

Gold prices reached a new high on Tuesday, while the US dollar weakened and stock markets experienced mixed results. This followed US President Donald Trump’s latest criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which heightened concerns about the central bank’s independence.

Adding to the existing market uncertainty caused by US tariffs, investors are now worried that President Trump might attempt to remove the head of the Federal Reserve.

Trump criticized Powell last week for suggesting that the tariffs could lead to higher inflation. He implied that Powell’s removal couldn’t happen soon enough and expressed his dissatisfaction, stating he would remove him if he wanted to.

While this initial criticism raised concerns, Trump’s subsequent call on Monday for the Fed to cut interest rates, labeling Powell a “major loser” and “Mr Too Late,” caused significant market anxiety.

In posts on his Truth Social platform, Trump argued that inflation was “virtually” nonexistent, citing lower energy and food costs and pointing to the European Central Bank’s rate cuts.

These comments have fueled speculation that Trump is planning to remove Powell, with his economic advisor Kevin Hassett indicating on Friday that the president was considering his options.

In response, Wall Street investors sold off US assets, resulting in all three major indexes closing about 2.5 percent lower on Monday.

“While the market barely reacted to Trump’s initial comments on Thursday, Monday’s renewed attack triggered a significant ‘sell America’ trend,” noted Tapas Strickland of National Australia Bank.

“Regardless of whether President Trump has the legal authority or intention to act against the Fed, his actions highlight a decline in US market stability and increased policy risks for investors.”

Investors seeking safe-haven assets drove gold prices to a new record above $3,500. Although the dollar stabilized after Monday’s sell-off, it remained under pressure against other major currencies.

Stock markets experienced fluctuations between gains and losses on the first full trading day after the Easter holiday.

Markets in Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul, Wellington, Taipei, Manila, and Bangkok saw declines, while Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore, Mumbai, and Jakarta recorded gains.

London’s market showed little change, and Paris and Frankfurt saw slight decreases.

However, analysts cautioned that any attempt by Trump to fire the Fed chairman could trigger another significant market downturn and erode confidence in the US economy.

Pepperstone strategist Michael Brown warned, “If Powell were to be fired, the immediate reaction would be a massive surge in financial market volatility and an unprecedented flight from US assets.”

He added, “Equities would fall sharply, Treasury bonds would be sold across the board, and the dollar would plummet.”

Brown further stated, “Any indication that the long-standing independence of the Fed is under threat would lead global investors to sell off all US-based assets and raises the genuinely alarming possibility of disrupting the entire global financial system.”

Below is a summary of key market figures:

* Tokyo – Nikkei 225: Down 0.2 percent at 34,220.60 (close)

* Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: Up 0.6 percent at 21,527.95

* Shanghai – Composite: Up 0.3 percent at 3,299.76 (close)

* London – FTSE 100: Flat at 8,275.99

* Euro/dollar: Down at $1.1500 from $1.1510 on Monday

* Pound/dollar: Up at $1.3389 from $1.3377

* Dollar/yen: Down at 140.38 yen from 140.89 yen

* Euro/pound: Down at 85.88 pence from 86.03 pence

* West Texas Intermediate: Up 1.1 percent at $63.78 per barrel

* Brent North Sea Crude: Up 1.0 percent at $66.95 per barrel

* New York – Dow: Down 2.5 percent at 38,170.41 (close)

Credit: AFP