The cost of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) could experience a further decline if crude oil prices continue to drop.
This trend will be reinforced if the naira maintains its stability against the dollar in the foreign exchange market.
Oil prices dropped by approximately two percent, reaching a 12-week low this week, following reports that OPEC+ plans to proceed with a scheduled oil output increase in April.
Brent futures decreased by $1.19, or 1.6 percent, settling at $71.62 a barrel, while the United States West Texas Intermediate crude fell by $1.39, or two percent, to settle at $68.37.
Reuters reported that these were the lowest closing prices for Brent since December 6, and for WTI since December 9.
It was also reported that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, such as Russia, known as OPEC+, decided to continue with the planned oil output increase in April.
Experts in the Nigerian downstream oil sector have stated that the cost of refined petroleum products is primarily determined by crude oil prices and the exchange rate.
Last week, Dangote refinery reduced its ex-depot PMS price from N890 per litre to N825.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) followed Dangote’s move, reducing its price to match, leading to what many are calling a price war.
Economist Paul Alaje believes that the petrol price reduction is sustainable and should fall below N700 per litre based on current market conditions.
While the price reduction is feasible, Alaje noted that the main risk is if crude oil prices increase due to a global crisis.
“It is sustainable to reduce petrol prices to N700 based on today’s reality of the exchange rate. The challenge we may have is a global crisis that makes the price of crude oil go up. If that happens, we are going to see the difference. But for now, we are seeing relative stability,” Alaje said on Channels Television.
He added, “As of today, our computation reveals that PMS should be around N795 to N820 per litre.”
Billy Gillis-Harry, the National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria, has insisted that petrol prices will continue to fluctuate based on changes in the foreign exchange rates and global crude oil prices.
Nonetheless, the drop in crude oil prices is benefiting average Nigerians by making fuel more affordable. The current price is below the $74 per barrel projected by the Federal Government in the 2025 budget.