The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has raised the petrol pump price to N925 per litre in Lagos.

This adjustment comes just two days after the company had increased the price to N915.

It was gathered that the new price of N925 per litre was reflected at NNPC retail outlets located at Fin Niger, LASU Iba, and Igando, Lagos State.

Major industry players have recently revised their pricing as global crude market instability—driven by the conflict in the Middle East—continues to escalate.

On June 21, Dangote refinery raised its ex-depot petrol price to N880 per litre.

Before this change, the refinery had announced intentions to begin nationwide distribution of petroleum products.

It also revealed the acquisition of 4,000 new compressed natural gas (CNG)-powered tankers to strengthen its nationwide distribution network.

In reaction, the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) expressed concern that the refinery’s forward integration strategy could result in a hidden monopoly and potentially lead to significant job losses within the downstream sector.

Earlier, on June 19, the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) had called for clarification regarding Dangote refinery’s logistics plan for nationwide petrol and diesel distribution.

Experts believe the refinery’s approach could significantly benefit end users, although it may present certain challenges for operators in the downstream sector.

Global crude oil prices are expected to surpass $80 per barrel this week due to rising tensions between the United States and Iran. The oil market has reacted strongly to news of coordinated US-Israeli airstrikes on major Iranian nuclear facilities.

Petroleum product marketers have warned that petrol could soon cost N1,000 per litre, driven by the rising price of crude oil and fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.

This follows a “preemptive defensive strike,” in which the US launched overnight attacks on three major Iranian nuclear sites. According to President Donald Trump, the strike “obliterated” Tehran’s critical nuclear infrastructure, and coincided with an Israeli assault, further intensifying the conflict. Iran is the third-largest crude producer in OPEC.

In response, the Iranian parliament is reportedly taking steps to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit route responsible for nearly 20 per cent of global supply. The move caused immediate disruptions in the energy market, with Brent crude prices climbing and analysts forecasting further increases.

Energy analysts warned on Sunday that if Brent crude exceeds $80 per barrel, petrol in Nigeria could soon be sold at N1,000 per litre. The Chief Executive Officer of PetroleumPrice.ng, Olatide Jeremiah, noted that private depots are already preparing to raise loading costs.

Jeremiah explained that if crude prices rise above $80 by Monday morning, petrol could be sold for N1,000 at the depots. He pointed out that “Dangote remains a major determinant of petrol price” and that the temporary halt in sales last week by the refinery triggered a spike in prices. The refinery has resumed sales at N880 per two million litres.

The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria stated that the ongoing crisis between Israel and Iran continues to drive up crude prices, which is pushing global petrol prices higher.

On Friday, Dangote refinery increased its petrol prices from N825 to N880. In response, MRS Oil Nigeria and other retail outlets raised their pump prices to an average of N955 in the South East and North West.

A correspondent observed that filling stations were selling petrol at prices ranging from N930 to N960, depending on the location, with Lagos having the lowest price at N925 per litre.

Speaking to The PUNCH, IPMAN’s National Publicity Secretary, Chinedu Ukadike, attributed the increase to the instability in both global crude oil prices and the foreign exchange market. He stated that Brent crude rose from around $66 to $77 per barrel.

Ukadike said the changes in crude oil prices and foreign exchange rates directly impact domestic petrol prices. He noted that both Dangote refinery and fuel importers had adjusted prices on Friday in response to these changes.

According to him, the rising cost of lifting 50,000 litres of petrol is putting financial strain on independent marketers, leading them to reconsider their pricing strategies. Petrol prices in some parts of the North have already reached N980 to N1,000 due to higher transportation and logistics costs.

Ukadike said petrol refined by Dangote might not be significantly cheaper than imported products because the refinery sources crude at international rates. He added that “it depends on what the presidential committee on the naira-for-crude deal approves.”

Retail prices are expected to vary by region, with South-South states seeing prices up to N950 per litre due to easier access to marine terminals.

Earlier reports had it that importers recently increased prices following the rise in crude oil. Nigerian crude grades like Bonny Light, Brass River, and Qua Iboe climbed to $79 per barrel after Israel’s military actions against Iran heightened regional conflict fears.

According to Oilprice.com, Bonny Light sold at $78.62 per barrel, while Brent and WTI closed at $77 and $73.84 respectively, exceeding the Nigerian government’s 2025 budget benchmark of $75 per barrel.

Analysts have warned that these higher prices could lead to increased local fuel prices due to more expensive crude input. Since Monday, depots raised petrol prices in response to the escalating Middle East crisis.

Petrol prices rose from N825 to N840 at the start of the week. Rainoil increased its rate by N50 to N900 per litre, while Fynefield and Mainland set depot prices at N930 and N920 respectively.

Other sellers like Sigmund, Matrix Warri, NIPCO, and Aiteo also raised prices to between N840 and N920. SGR adjusted its pump price to N930.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited is expected to update its prices soon. Jorge Leon, Rystad’s head of geopolitical analysis and a former OPEC official, said “An oil price jump is expected.” SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye added that Brent crude could rise by $3 to $5 when markets open.

Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank predicted a possible $4 to $5 increase due to investor repositioning. Brent and WTI had fallen on Friday after the US imposed new Iran-related sanctions, including measures targeting Hong Kong-based entities.

Brent has increased by 11 per cent and WTI by 10 per cent since the conflict began on June 13, with Israel targeting Iranian nuclear sites and Iran responding with missile attacks on Tel Aviv.

Despite stable oil supply conditions and available OPEC spare capacity, analysts say supply disruptions could drive prices even higher, while a de-escalation would reduce risk premiums.

Meanwhile, reports suggest Iran’s parliament has voted to close the Strait of Hormuz. Although not officially confirmed, Esmail Kosari from the national security commission said, “For now, [parliament has] concluded we should close the Strait of Hormuz, but the final decision in this regard is the responsibility of the Supreme National Security Council.”

The Strait of Hormuz, 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, is a crucial maritime passage that connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Approximately 20 per cent of the world’s oil—17 to 18 million barrels per day—passes through it.

Point of Sale terminals handled transactions worth N223.27tn in 2024, representing a significant increase from the N110.35tn recorded in 2023.

This is according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s quarterly statistical bulletin, which shows a continued migration from Automated Teller Machines to Point of Sale platforms for financial transactions across the country.

The total number of POS transactions rose from 9.85 billion in 2023 to 13.08 billion in 2024, indicating a 32.7 per cent increase year-on-year. In contrast, ATM transaction volume remained largely flat, rising marginally from 1.012 billion to 1.022 billion transactions.

The value of ATM withdrawals in 2024 was N29.12tn, a slight increase from N28.21tn in the previous year, further confirming a slowdown in cash withdrawal growth relative to digital payment usage. Monthly data from the apex bank shows a consistent rise in POS transaction values throughout 2024.

In January, POS terminals processed N11.50tn, more than double the N5.28tn recorded in January 2023. ATM withdrawals fell sharply in the same month, declining from N3.24tn to N2.15tn year-on-year. In February 2024, POS transaction value rose to N12.46tn, a 69 per cent increase from N7.38tn in the corresponding month of the previous year.

The volume of POS transactions dropped slightly month-on-month but remained significantly above the 2023 figures. ATM withdrawals declined to N1.72tn from N1.77tn year-on-year. By March, POS terminals recorded N14.73tn in transaction value, up from N10.62tn in March 2023.

While POS transaction volume crossed the one billion mark, ATM usage dipped further, with withdrawals totalling N1.60tn compared to N2.16tn in the same month of the previous year.

April continued the trend with POS transaction value of N13.74tn, a rise from N8.55tn recorded in April 2023.

ATM withdrawals remained subdued at N1.81tn, lower than N2.41tn recorded the previous year. May followed with a POS transaction value of N13.91tn, a 67.3 per cent increase from N8.30tn in May 2023. ATM withdrawals stood at N2.49tn, slightly below the previous year’s N2.62tn.

June saw one of the most significant surges, with POS value hitting N19.57tn, more than double the N8.31tn recorded in June 2023. ATM usage by value remained virtually unchanged at N2.45tn despite a rise in volume to 113.17 million, suggesting a higher frequency of smaller withdrawals.

In July 2024, ATM withdrawals rose to N3.21tn, up from N2.24tn in July 2023, while POS value hit N15.24tn, reflecting an 83 per cent increase year-on-year. In August, POS transactions surged further to N18.90tn, more than double the N9.10tn recorded in August 2023. ATM withdrawals also saw a modest increase to N2.21tn, up from N2.14tn in the previous year.

September recorded N19.69tn in POS transaction value, compared to N9.40tn in 2023, showing a 109.6 per cent increase. ATM value increased modestly to N2.30tn from N1.99tn year-on-year. In October, POS usage rose to N22.27tn from N10.60tn in October 2023, while ATM value dropped to N1.93tn from N2.54tn, marking the lowest ATM transaction value for the year.

November posted one of the highest spikes in POS value at N29.42tn, up from N11.28tn in the same month of 2023, a rise of over 160 per cent. ATM withdrawals rebounded to N3.35tn, their highest for the year. In December, POS transaction value peaked at N31.84tn, compared to N13.20tn in December 2023. ATM usage also reached its highest point at N3.91tn, up from N2.43tn year-on-year.

The data reflect the continued expansion of POS terminals, which are increasingly accessible across urban and rural communities through agency banking networks. While ATM usage remains relevant, the figures suggest a diminishing reliance on physical cash withdrawals from ATMs for everyday transactions.

The increasing preference for POS reflects a shift towards convenience, speed, and broader financial access. However, the rapid growth also brings to the fore issues such as fraud and transaction charges.

The surge in POS transactions occurred despite the arbitrary increase in charges common towards the end of the year. In December 2024, POS agents hiked charges by about 100 per cent, collecting up to N200 per N5,000 withdrawal.

Many Nigerians were at the mercy of POS operators, as most banks’ ATMs were empty. Inside the banks, there was no reprieve as most of the banks turned their customers back for lack of cash, and in rare cases where the customers were able to get cash, they were limited to N10,000 or N20,000 withdrawals.

This happened despite a warning to the banks by the CBN that any bank found not dispensing cash via ATMs would be sanctioned. The CBN earlier sanctioned nine Deposit Money Banks with fines totalling N1.35bn for failing to ensure cash availability via Automated Teller Machines during the festive season.

Each of the banks was fined N150m following spot checks that revealed non-compliance with the apex bank’s cash distribution guidelines. The affected banks include Fidelity Bank Plc, First Bank Plc, Keystone Bank Plc, Union Bank Plc, Globus Bank Plc, Providus Bank Plc, Zenith Bank Plc, United Bank for Africa Plc, and Sterling Bank Plc.

The fines will be directly debited from the banks’ accounts with the CBN. Further checks by The PUNCH showed that the high POS transaction charge persists even after the festive period.

Earlier, POS operators attributed the increase to severe cash scarcity caused by banks rationing withdrawals and the implementation of the Electronic Money Transfer Levy of N50 by the Federal Inland Revenue Services, charged on any electronic inflow of N10,000 and above.

The stamp duty or electronic money transfer levy is a single, one-off charge of N50 on electronic receipt or transfer of money deposited in any commercial money bank or financial institution on any type of account on sums of N10,000 and above.

On December 1, 2024, the Federal Government began enforcing the policy across fintech platforms such as OPay, Moniepoint, Kuda, and others. The fintech operators dominate about 70 per cent of the POS agent market.

Also, with the surge in POS transactions, there have been rising cases of fraud through this payment system, among other concerns. The prevalence of fraud and forgery in Nigeria’s payment system has shown a significant shift in the first quarter of 2024, with POS transactions experiencing the highest increase in fraudulent activities.

According to the Fraud and Forgeries Report in Nigerian Banks for the first quarter of 2024 by FITC, POS fraud cases surged by 31.12 per cent in Q1 2024. In Q4 2023, there were 2,683 reported cases of fraud associated with POS terminals. However, this number escalated to 3,518 cases by Q1 2024.

POS fraud cases made up 30.67 per cent of the total fraud cases (11,472) recorded in the quarter under review. Also, fraud cases involving computers, mobile devices, and point-of-sale systems accounted for the majority of fraudulent activities recorded in Nigeria during the second quarter of 2024.

This led the CBN to introduce a daily cash-out transaction limit of N100,000 per individual customer for Point-of-Sale agents. According to the apex bank, this was part of new measures to advance the cashless policy in Nigeria, as well as combat fraud.

The CBN stated that agents are restricted to a cumulative cash-out limit of N1.2m per day, while customers face a maximum cash withdrawal limit of N500,000 per week. To ensure accountability, the CBN has mandated that all agency banking transactions must be conducted exclusively through float accounts maintained with the principal institutions.

Also, all agent banking terminals must be connected to the Payments Terminal Service Aggregator, and daily transaction reports, including withdrawal limits and float account balances, must be electronically submitted to the Nigerian Inter-Bank Settlement System using a reporting template provided by the CBN.

The circular emphasised that principals of agent banking operations must monitor accounts linked to agents’ Bank Verification Numbers to detect any unauthorised activities outside the designated float accounts.

It further reiterated that principals would be held fully responsible for the actions and omissions of their agents in relation to banking services. To ensure compliance, the CBN announced plans to conduct periodic oversight and impromptu backend configuration checks.

Any breaches of the directive, the circular warned, would attract penalties, including monetary fines and administrative sanctions.