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BIG STORY

Crude Crash: FG’s 2025 Budget Jerks Again, Marketers Anticipate Price Cut

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The recent collapse in global crude oil prices has further endangered Nigeria’s 2025 budget, as fuel marketers anticipate a potential drop in the cost of petroleum products.

Industry analysts told our correspondent that the plunge in crude oil prices, triggered by tariffs introduced by United States President, Donald Trump, is having mixed effects on Nigeria’s economy.

Although the Federal Government stands to lose significant revenue due to lower crude prices, consumers may benefit from reduced fuel costs.

Earlier reports had it that oil prices began to dip over the weekend, falling to $65 per barrel by Saturday.

By Monday, prices dropped further, with Brent at $64.16 and the US WTI at $60.73.

As reported by oilprice.com, a combination of Trump’s new tariffs, OPEC+’s poorly timed decision to fast-track the rollback of production cuts, and China’s retaliatory measures led to a $10-per-barrel slump in global oil prices, “with ICE Brent falling below $65 per barrel for the first time since August 2021.”

China’s countermeasures, including a 34 per cent tariff on all US goods starting April 10, have intensified an ongoing trade war, pushing investors to anticipate a recession.

Reuters revealed that countries worldwide are ready to strike back after Trump raised tariffs to unprecedented levels in over 100 years.

In addition to tariffs, another contributor to the declining oil prices was the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Allies’ decision to accelerate plans for increased output.

The group now intends to add 411,000 barrels per day to the market in May, a sharp rise from the previously agreed 135,000 bpd.

With crude prices dropping, the Federal Government is under pressure to find ways to address the revenue shortfall that could affect the 2025 budget.

According to The Punch, the government’s benchmark price for crude oil in the 2025 budget was set at $75 per barrel.

As Nigeria’s primary income source, crude oil’s price decline below the $75 benchmark—combined with the inability to increase daily production to two million barrels—jeopardizes the country’s revenue projections.

The budget was based on a production target of 2.06 million barrels per day at $75 per barrel. About N19.60tn—or 56 per cent of the anticipated N34.8tn revenue—is expected to come from oil, underscoring Nigeria’s dependency on the sector.

Clement Isong, Executive Secretary of the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria, (speaking with The Punch) described the crude price fall as damaging to the economy, given the budget assumptions.

He remarked that the global situation is dire, more so than past crises.

He said, “We have had the market crash a few times, I think in 2008, and I can’t remember what the last one was, maybe 2014. But it has never been this bad. I’m talking about globally.

“Fortunately, this is man-made. It is because one person stood up and did something. So, it also means that if he can compromise, or they can work out some compromises, it might be reversed. But is there a negative impact on my country? Yes, as usual, it’s a negative and positive impact.”

He stressed that the sharp drop in crude oil price is harmful in light of the current benchmark.

“The extremely low price of crude oil at $65 per barrel is really bad based on the benchmark that was used for the budget for this year. So, if it should last, it means that the deficit would be even worse than what was anticipated. It’s really bad news for the expected revenues for the country,” Isong said.

He also warned that the lower price could affect investment levels due to high production costs.

“Hopefully, it will not impact too much on investments, because, as you recall, we have had insufficient investments in our upstream, leading to the decline in our crude oil output. Normally, in the world, when crude oil prices are high, those who invest in production bring out more money.

“Remember that Nigeria’s production cost is quite high because a lot of new production is deep offshore. So, because deep offshore is so expensive, you really need the cost of the crude to be as high as possible in order to generate the revenue that the country needs to fund its ambitious development programme. So, it’s both negative and positive.”

He added that while the production cost per barrel had dropped from $40, current crude prices remain unappealing.

“I hope we can push it down. But $66 per barrel is not very interesting. It’s not very good for us,” he stated.

Nevertheless, he acknowledged that the price slump may result in lower fuel costs at filling stations.

“With respect to prices at the pump, over time, I guess, they will go down. If the crash is continuous, fuel prices will go down, and that will provide some relief to commuters and transporters of goods. So, it has a dual impact,” he submitted.

Billy Gillis-Harry, President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria, noted that the crash will bring mixed consequences for the economy.

He pointed out Nigeria’s over-reliance on oil revenue as a vulnerability, warning that falling prices could severely affect the country.

Gillis-Harry said fuel prices at retail stations may fluctuate and highlighted that petrol is nearing N1,000 per litre.

He urged the government to prioritize internal economic growth, referencing Trump’s tariff hike from five to 14 per cent as a reason to diversify income streams.

According to him, pump prices could drop as the cost of feedstock decreases.

“Fuel reduction should normally be expected because the cost of the feedstock is part of the cost of production. If the crude price reduces, it will affect the price. But we don’t know when the price cut can happen.”

Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare, an energy expert, explained that price volatility is part of the oil business.

He agreed that the slump would reduce government earnings while also lowering fuel prices.

“In the short run, it is bad for every petroleum-dependent economy in terms of government access to revenue and pressure on foreign reserves.

“The crash, however, could lead to higher economic activities, reduce petroleum product prices, and lead to higher economic output because of high employment in the private sector.”

Professor Dayo Ayoade of the University of Lagos attributed the price drop to global market instability sparked by Trump, adding that recovery depends on restored investor confidence.

He lamented that Nigeria may resort to borrowing to fund its budget.

“Crude price crash is bad for Nigeria because our budget is fixed on certain prices, and if we don’t meet those prices, we won’t be able to fund the budget. We will have to go and borrow. Nigeria has over-borrowed; we are struggling with a lot of economic challenges based on huge debts and funding those debts.

“We should learn to rely on ourselves and focus on internal growth. We should use our big population to create prosperity. We should go back to the farm. People should not be hungry with the kind of land and weather God has blessed us with. We should look inwards,” he said.

On Sunday, crude refiners suggested that petrol prices could fall to N400 per litre if crude drops to $50 per barrel, but noted that the end of the naira-for-crude swap deal may prevent such a drop.

Meanwhile, the Federal Government expressed concern that Trump’s tariffs might adversely affect Nigeria’s economy.

Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, cautioned that the policy could significantly disrupt both oil and non-oil exports to the US, one of Nigeria’s major trade partners.

 

Credit: The Punch

BIG STORY

External Reserves Hit $40.1 Billion In July 2025 — Cardoso

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Nigeria’s foreign reserves have risen to $40.11 billion as of July 2025, according to Central Bank Governor, Yemi Cardoso.

He made this announcement during the Monetary Policy Committee briefing held on Monday, July 22, 2025.

Cardoso explained that the reserve figure of $40.11 billion amounts to about 9.5 months of import coverage, highlighting a significant improvement in the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

This marks the highest reserve level since November 2024 when it reached $40.2 billion, representing a notable recovery in Nigeria’s forex buffers as authorities continue efforts to stabilize the naira and rebuild investor trust.

Key Economic Indicators

The CBN further reported ongoing stability in the forex market, citing factors such as higher capital inflows, better crude oil output, increased non-oil exports, and reduced import levels.

Gross External Reserves: $40.11 billion, providing cover for 9.5 months of imports

Capital Inflows: Rise in inflows helping stabilize the foreign exchange market

Crude Oil Production: Gains in output supporting economic stability

Non-Oil Exports: Growth in exports contributing to the economy

Imports: Decline in imports helping maintain FX stability

Inflation Outlook

Cardoso stated that internal projections indicate inflation will keep declining in the months ahead, driven by:

  • Tight Monetary Policy: Maintaining price control and curbing inflation
  • Stable Exchange Rates: Helping ease inflationary trends
  • Declining PMS Prices: Lower fuel costs aiding inflation decline
  • Harvest Season: Expected to boost food availability and reduce costs

The CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee is set to reconvene on September 22 and 23 to assess economic conditions and make additional policy decisions.

Economic Growth and Inflation Projections

The International Monetary Fund has forecast that Nigeria’s inflation will drop to 23 percent in 2025 and further decline to 18 percent in 2026.

The IMF also expects economic growth to improve from 2.9 percent in the previous year to 3.3 percent this year, supported by a rebound in oil production and progress in agriculture.

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BIG STORY

Supporters Cheer As Suspended Senator Natasha Akpoti Defies Senate, Returns To National Assembly Amid Tight Security

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Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan showed up at the National Assembly on Tuesday, where a crowd of her supporters had already gathered outside the complex.

Security presence at the National Assembly gate was significantly heightened, with stern-looking officers inspecting vehicles and limiting access for visitors, directing them to park outside.

At least five police patrol vans were observed stationed at a key point near the Assembly gate.

The increased security followed Akpoti-Uduaghan’s declaration that she intended to resume her senatorial duties despite warnings from the Senate.

The senator, who was suspended in March, said over the weekend that she had officially informed the Senate of her plans to return, basing her decision on a recent court ruling.

Speaking during a constituency training session, she stated that she had written the Senate leadership about her return.

“I will be there, because the court did make the decision on that. Now, they argue that it’s an order, it’s not an order, but it is a decision,” she insisted.

She emphasized that although her suspension hadn’t hindered her from carrying out constituency-related initiatives, it had prevented her from fully participating in legislative responsibilities such as introducing bills and sponsoring motions.

Her position was supported by her legal counsel, Senior Advocate of Nigeria, West Idahosa, who asserted that the court’s ruling justified her return to the Senate.

“Let me be honest with you. Attendance is a legislative action.

“As far as we are concerned, we are focused on the appeal and other issues before the court.

“I think the decision to go back to the Senate will be determined by the constituents.

“Now that she said she wants to go and resume, let us see what the reaction of the Senate will be. But the most important thing is that she is still a senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria,” he said in a phone interview.

When contacted on Monday, Akpoti-Uduaghan’s aide, Isah Bala, said he couldn’t confirm her immediate plans.

“It is not something I can immediately confirm now because we just returned from a programme in Okene,” he said, adding that he would provide clarity later.

By the time of reporting, Bala had yet to respond with further information.

Meanwhile, the Senate reiterated its stance that the senator remains suspended and barred from the chamber until the conclusion of the suspension period.

Senator Yemi Adaramodu, who chairs the Senate Committee on Media and Public Affairs, restated the Senate’s position on Sunday, saying there was no court order mandating her reinstatement.

In a separate development, activist Aisha Yesufu pledged to accompany Akpoti-Uduaghan to the Senate on Tuesday as a show of support.

During an appearance on Channels Television’s Sunrise Daily on Monday, Yesufu criticized the Senate’s position and cautioned against ignoring judicial decisions.

She also labeled Akpoti-Uduaghan’s suspension as unconstitutional and accused the Senate of overstepping its bounds.

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BIG STORY

RE-Mining Cadastre Office, A Threat To National Security — By Engr. Tafa Bakori

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I came across a hogwash of an opinion article penned by a suspected fictitious character named Biliyaminur Surajo titled, “Mining Cadastre Office, A Threat to National Security” published on Sahara Reporters and other online media which by all intents and purposes was crafted to not only diminish the great job the Mining Cadastral office (MCO) is doing but also to cast aspersion on the foremost cadastral agency and bring it to disrepute. As a mining stakeholder for over 15 years, I am an insider conversant with the inner workings of MCO and I’ve been following with keen interest ongoing reforms by the present administration to reform and reposition the mining sector. It therefore beggars’ belief that any sane individual can seek to denigrate such efforts with patently outlandish claims as encapsulated in the jaundiced article.

The writer claims that the MCO “has become synonymous with corruption, bribery, and unprofessionalism” without any shred of evidence but rather put together a contraption of conjectures and false narratives to justify his warped conclusion. Reading through the piece, I saw a desperate attempt by the writer to allude to outrightly preposterous postulations by “faceless industry stakeholders”, more like an attempt to “give a dog a bad name, in order to hang it”.

He cited a crisis of overlapping titles, alleging that “for a fee, fake community consent documents can be obtained through MCO channels”. This is not only far from the truth, but a blatant lie. With my vast knowledge of the mining sector, I can assert that the allegations are totally baseless and unfounded because MCO does not get involved in obtaining land owner/occupier consent which is the responsibility of the applicant after the successful submission of application, and the receipt of their priority number.

If Mr. Surajo knows those purportedly claiming to be MCO agents or officers carrying out such nefarious activities, he should bring them forward or submit details of such unscrupulous individuals to the security agencies for necessary action. The onus of proof falls on those who alleges. One would have expected some “naming and shaming” at the least, but carrying out a hatchet job hinged on falsehoods can be such an arduous task.

Claiming that public complaints on overlapping titles fell on “deaf ears” is also disingenuous to anyone conversant with happenings in the sector. While it a known fact that during the process of migrating the cadastral system from computerized to the online Electronic Mining Cadastre plus (eMC+), some of the valid titles couldn’t be moved due to some systemic issues, several efforts have been made to correct the anomaly. I am aware that the rectification took some time which might be responsible for instances of overlapping titles that were hitherto seen on the eMC+ platform. During that period of glitch, it was reported that applicants saw free mining areas on the platform which already has valid owners before the migration and these caused the few incidences of overlapping titles.

From my investigations, it was gathered that a standing committee has since been at work resolving the issues amicably and it is pertinent that those that are facing similar challenges reach out to the agency. I have it on good authority that the cases that have been brought to the attention of the agency have been resolved till date. It is also pertinent to note that the MCO has never lost a single case in court which implies that the agency is guided at all times by extant provisions of the law and the statutes guiding the operations of the agency.

The fictitious writer also erroneously alleged that “beyond official fees, industry sources report a pervasive culture of additional payments to individual MCO officers”. From my experience over the years, this is likely a case of itinerant fake consultants posturing as MCO staff. An instance revealed by the grapevine is a case of a suspect presently cooling his heels in the Force Criminal Investigation Department (FCID), Garki, Abuja for impersonating the Special Technical Assistant (STA) to the DG, Madaki Joseph. The suspect, one Shehu Bokane, operating from his base in Niger State has allegedly duped his victims of several millions of Naira, and this is verifiable. This is just one instance and there could be many more at large. What anyone privy to such malfeasance should do is to report the culprits to the authorities instead of tarring an entire agency with the brush of corruption based on false premise or spurious allegations.

Not done trying to justify his fables, the writer described that Mineral Sector Support for Economic Diversification Project (MINDIVER), funded by the World Bank designed to prevent duplication of titles as a failure. While the eMC+ system faced initial hitches, the system has largely digitized the application processes as all mineral title applications are now submitted exclusively through the system. Like the DG MCO, Engr. Obadiah Nkom said at some fora, “It’s an entirely online platform that offers transparency, efficiency, and real-time access.” Feedback from industry stakeholders back this assertion.

From an informed perspective, the initial glitches that affected the migration of the cadastral system to the eMC+ platform might have been averted if the MCO technical staff had some input in the building of the electronic system. That was not the case as I learnt the agency only made inputs and modifications after the system funded by MINDIVER, was delivered.

I was privileged to attend the recently held African Natural Resources and Energy Investment Summit (AFNIS) in Abuja, graced by some African ministers of mining and energy amongst other global and continental mining players. The robust engagements I saw, the Ministerial roundtable convened by the African Minerals Strategy Group (AMSG) and chaired by the Solid Minerals Development Minister, Dr. Dele Alake is a sharp contrast to the picture of purported “wasted foreign trips to mining conferences” painted by the writer. It was also recently widely reported that some Nigerian mining professionals went on a capacity building training to Murdoch University in Australia. If that doesn’t represent fruits of Nigeria’s proactive engagement with the global mining community, I wonder what it is.

While there might be need for improvement in some areas like any other human endeavor, it smacks of utter mischief for the writer to paint a gloomy picture of the operations of MCO and by extension the mining sector. For the first time, in our nation’s recent history, the mining sector is experiencing a resurgence on account of the renewed focus of the Tinubu administration in developing solid minerals alongside the tenacious passion of Minister Alake in carrying on with reforms.

It is quite ludicrous that the writer will attempt to describe an agency that is renowned across the African continent as leading a very efficient cadastral system as a threat to national security. Unlike the bogus conclusion of the imaginary stakeholder, “the future of Nigeria’s solid minerals sector—and potentially the nation’s economic diversification” is bright and on course. No hatchet job or sponsored machinations of those frustrated by laudable efforts to reposition the mining sector must be allowed to stand or mislead the public. All Nigerians and responsible stakeholders should join hands with government to take our mining industry to greater heights.

 

Engr. Tafa Bakori, a mining stakeholder, writes from Niger State.

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