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BIG STORY

BUSINESS: OPEC Forsees Lower Dangote Refinery Petrol Price

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The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has expressed confidence that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery can help reduce petrol prices in Nigeria.

At the same time, the refinery is urging the Federal Government to fully implement the naira-for-crude deal by supplying it with adequate feedstock to support its ramp-up plan.

Officials from the $20bn Lekki-based refinery, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, called on the Federal Government to ensure the facility receives enough crude for the benefit of the nation.

They noted that OPEC must have conducted thorough research on the refinery and its potential positive impact on Nigeria’s petroleum market, given how it has already reduced the prices of diesel and Premium Motor Spirit (“petrol”) while helping to eliminate the frequent occurrences of fuel scarcity.

The Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria echoed OPEC’s belief in the ability of Dangote and other refineries to provide Nigerians with affordable fuel.

The Dangote refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, is the largest single-train refinery globally. Alhaji Aliko Dangote, President of the Dangote Group, had stated that the refinery could meet Nigeria’s fuel needs and would also export to other nations.

Aliko further emphasized that the refinery would end the importation of refined petroleum products, questioning how an oil-producing nation like Nigeria could rely on “dirty” imported fuel for its energy requirements.

Since the refinery began operations in January 2024, it has reduced the price of diesel from around N1,700 to N1,000 per litre. More recently, it also lowered the ex-depot price of PMS from N950 to N890 per litre.

In its February Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC said the Dangote refinery could help stabilise the supply of petroleum products as it ramps up production. The $20bn refinery is currently ramping up production to hit its full capacity.

Recently, the Vice President of the Dangote Group, Davakumar Edwin, disclosed that the refinery is currently at 550,000 capacity, saying it could attain its full capacity by March or thereabouts.

In its report, OPEC disclosed that the oil sector remains central to the Nigerian economy even though the non-oil sector plays an increasingly important role in driving growth.

According to OPEC, after the Nigerian economy recorded healthy growth in the third quarter of 2024 across key sectors, economic growth is anticipated to have been steady in 4Q24 as well.

It added that economic growth reached 3.5 percent year-on-year in 3Q24, up from 3.2 percent year-on-year in 2Q24.

“This came despite the impact of tightening monetary policy, with the non-oil sector playing an increasingly important role in driving growth, supported by easing price pressures and a potential loosening of tight monetary policy.

“However, the oil sector remains central to the economy, and the Dangote Refinery reaching full production capacity should help stabilise the petroleum product supply and possibly lower petrol prices,” the report said.

Meanwhile, as the refinery targets its full production capacity, low local crude supply has remained a major challenge. As Nigeria’s refining capacity increases, the 450,000 barrels of crude oil allocated for local refineries is no longer enough.

Recently, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission revealed that the Dangote refinery, the Port Harcourt refinery, and six others would need 770,500 barrels for daily fuel production.

NUPRC data sourced from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority puts the country’s refining capacity at 974,500 barrels per day. The NUPRC estimated that eight refineries would need 123.5 million barrels of crude oil in the first six months of 2025.

The refineries are: the Dangote refinery, Port Harcourt refinery, Warri refinery, Kaduna refinery, Opac refinery, Waltersmith refinery, Duport Midstream Company Limited, Aradel refinery, and Edo refinery.

According to the crude oil production forecast of producing oil companies and the refining requirement of functional refineries in Nigeria signed by the NUPRC Chief Executive, Gbenga Komolafe, the Dangote refinery is forecasted to need 550,000 barrels of a blend of Nigerian crude oil daily, 17.05 million barrels monthly, and 99.55 million barrels between January and June 2025.

Opac refinery requires 5,000bpd; Waltersmith needs 4,500bpd; Duport needs 2,000bpd while Edo refinery requires 1,000bpd. Others are Aradel refinery, 7,000bpd; Port Harcourt refinery, 60,000bpd; Warri refinery, 75,000bpd, and Kaduna refinery, 66,000bpd.

Recall that in July 2024, President Bola Tinubu ordered the NNPC to sell crude oil to local refineries in naira. In October, the committee supervising the naira-for-crude deal commenced the sale of crude to only the Dangote refinery in naira, saying it would sell to only petrol-producing refineries.

However, with the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries coming on stream, more refineries would be considered for the naira-for-crude arrangement. To avoid having its ramp-up plans disrupted, the refinery is looking elsewhere for its crude, importing 12 million barrels from the United States lately.

Already, the refinery is building eight more tanks to stockpile imported crude oil as local supplies become unreliable. Officials of the refinery were quoted as saying that low crude supply from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited “is driving import dependence.”

The building of eight additional tanks will increase crude storage capacity at the refinery by 41.67 per cent to 3.4 billion litres.

“Importing crude from other countries instead of buying locally means that our crude stockpiles will have to be higher,” Vice President Edwin had said.

Speaking with our correspondent, a consultant with the Dangote refinery who did not want to be mentioned, called on the Federal Government and the committee supervising the naira-for-crude deal to do the right thing.

“OPEC knows what it is saying, they must have done their research well before making projections. We all can see how the refinery crashed the price of diesel. It recently reduced the price of PMS and eliminated the year-long fuel queues in filling stations, especially during yuletide. They know what they are saying.

“The thing is that let the local actors do the right thing. OPEC has its reasons for making that projection. Let the local actors behave and stop playing games. They tell the people that they are giving refineries crude for naira but they are playing games.

“So, what we are saying is that all things considered, it (OPEC projection) will come to pass. That’s it,” the consultant stated.

Another inner source told our correspondent that though prices of petroleum products are determined by various factors, enough local crude supply would aid the availability and affordability of fuel across the nation.

“Nobody fixes the price and that’s why it keeps changing. However, enough local crude supply will aid affordability. That’s why we are calling on the Federal Government to ensure the naira-for-crude policy achieves its objectives.

“We have said it before, what we get from the committee is below what we requested. But we can only appeal to them to look into this for the good of all Nigerians,” the source said.

The Publicity Secretary of CORAN, Eche Idoko, explained that in the refining business, the larger the quantity refined, the lower the product cost.

“I agree with OPEC. It’s purely based on the economics of scale. In refining, the larger the quantity you refine the cheaper the cost and the more the yield. Consequently, the better the margins,” Idoko stated.

However, he added that Nigeria should not have crude challenges considering the abundant oil reserves.

“Ideally, we shouldn’t have crude challenges. We have abundant provable reserves of sweet crude in the country, and with the recent progress made with the domestic crude supply obligation as enshrined in the Petroleum Industry Act, we can not but hope for a bright prospect for domestic refining in Nigeria,“

While saying inflation remains high, OPEC maintained that early signs of cooling have emerged, partly due to base effects from the naira’s devaluation.

It added that the Central Bank of Nigeria appears to be nearing the end of its tightening cycle, following its rate hikes in the second half of 2024 with the key policy rate standing at 27.5 percent.

“Consequently, real interest rates remain deeply negative. Inflation rose to 34.9 per cent, y-o-y, in December, following 34.6 per cent, y-o-y, in November and 33.9 per cent, y-o-y, in October. The S&P PMI remained at an expansionary level of 52 in January, compared with 52.7 in December,” the report said.

In its short-term prospects for product markets and refinery operations, OPEC revealed that there is upside potential for new product volumes entering international markets from Dangote refinery and Yulong petrochemical, Olmeca, lengthening product balances going forward, particularly for gasoline.

OPEC Quota

The ability of the country to meet the quota set for it by OPEC might be a good signal toward more crude supply to local refineries. In January, Nigeria made real its focus to ramp up oil production, raising average daily crude output to 1,538,697 barrels per day, which is 103 percent of the OPEC quota.

This is also about 39,000 barrels above the 1.5mbpd set for the oil-producing country by OPEC. The PUNCH reports that Nigeria has failed to meet the crude oil production quota approved by OPEC throughout 2022, 2023, and 2024.

According to the NUPRC, oil production, including crude and condensate, rose to 1.74mbpd in January, up from 1.6mbpd in December. However, this is below the 2mbpd target of the commission for the year.

The regulator’s data disclosed that the lowest and peak production in January were 1.66mbpd and 1.79mbpd respectively.

“The daily average production in January was 1,737,480 barrels per day, consisting of both crude oil (1,538,697bpd) and condensate (198.783bpd). The average crude oil production was 103 per cent of OPEC quota (1.5 mbpd),” the NUPRC stated.

For years, crude oil theft, and pipeline vandalism, among other factors, stopped the country from meeting its OPEC oil production quotas.

But the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, expressed confidence that Nigeria could hit 3mbpd this year.

The oil minister had insisted that Nigeria would follow the ’Drill, baby drill’ slogan of the United States President, Donald Trump, to ramp up production.

BIG STORY

ADC Chieftain Nafi’u Bala Declares Self Party Chairman, Vows To Challenge David Mark’s Leadership

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Nafi’u Bala, who previously ran for governor under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in Gombe, has proclaimed himself as the national chairman of the party.

During a press conference held Wednesday night in Abuja, the former national deputy chairman of the ADC accused the leadership under David Mark of seizing control of the party unlawfully and violating its constitution.

BACKGROUND

In the previous month, several opposition figures and ADC leaders selected the party to serve as the coalition platform for the 2027 general elections.

Among those involved in the coalition are former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, ex-senate president David Mark, former PDP national chairman Uche Secondus, ex-Niger governor Babangida Aliyu, former Ebonyi governor Sam Egwu, ex-governor of Sokoto Aminu Tambuwal, and former Cross River governor Liyel Imoke.

Additional members include ex-Kaduna governor Nasir el-Rufai, 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi, former interior minister Rauf Aregbesola, ex-transportation minister Rotimi Amaechi, former sports minister Solomon Dalung, ex-APC chairman Odigie Oyegun, and former sports minister Bolaji Abdullahi, among others.

On July 2, the party’s founder and former national chairman Ralph Nwosu announced the resignation of the national working committee (NWC) and endorsed an interim leadership headed by Mark.

Later, on July 29, Nwosu claimed he was offered three ministerial slots as an incentive to abandon plans of turning the party into an opposition coalition platform.

A faction within the ADC expressed opposition to this move, insisting the party should not be treated as a “private coalition platform” controlled by a select elite.

The party’s 2023 presidential candidate, Dumebi Kachikwu, also voiced disapproval over the opposition alliance’s adoption of the ADC.

‘I’LL CHALLENGE TAKEOVER IN COURT’

Bala stated that “bonafide” members of the party intend to take legal action over what he described as an illegal takeover.

“We wish to draw the attention of all members of our great party and Nigerians at large, to the ongoing acts of political hooliganism being perpetrated by some individuals who were hitherto entrusted with the leadership of the party,” he said.

“We are all living witnesses to the show of shame and acts of lawlessness being displayed by these unscrupulous leaders, who, without any qualm or sense of moral restraint, plunged our party into a needless crisis and leadership uncertainty.

“The idea of mortgaging the future of our great party, by abdicating the constitutional duties and responsibilities of all elected officers of the party, to some powerful outsiders who never belong to the party, is condemnable.

“Recently, the nation woke up only to be greeted by a shoddily rehearsed political melodrama, in which elected roles were switched with certain groups of political strangers in order to facilitate the complete takeover of the party structures and their political appurtenances.

“This total surrender and capitulation is without any known precedent in our democratic journey to constitutional order. We are therefore strongly resolved and collectively determined to challenge this affront and ensure that the party’s laid down rules and stipulated provisions are respected and strictly adhered to by all those who belong to it.

“In case these individuals choose to ignore our urgent calls to obey our constitutional guidelines and thus remain very obdurate and recalcitrant in their aberrant behaviour, we shall proceed with gusto to challenge these gross acts of impunity in the courts and bring them to justice.

“It gives us enormous pain to inundate you with these scandalous happenings in our party, but we have been left with no other option to take in defence of our inalienable constitutional rights, as evident by the prevailing situation we now find ourselves in the party.

“In the history of democracy all over the world, no party leader or any group of leaders have the power to arbitrarily transfer elected mandate or political authority to non-members who never belonged or contested for political office.”

He explained that the ADC constitution clearly outlines the process for succession and how to fill any leadership vacancies.

Following those guidelines, Bala announced that he has taken on the position of interim national chairman of the party.

He called on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to “urgently” recognise him as the party’s legitimate chairman.

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BIG STORY

Insecurity: Tinubu Should Stop Listening To Governors, Visit Streets — ADC

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The African Democratic Congress (ADC) says President Bola Tinubu is being misled by state governors about the true extent of insecurity in the country and urged him to engage directly with citizens to understand their realities.

The party, which has been adopted by the opposition coalition ahead of the 2027 elections, argued that insecurity continues to plague many areas despite claims by the Tinubu administration.

“I actually think President Tinubu needs to leave the Villa and go on the streets and talk to people and stop listening to this kind of narrative [that insecurity has been degraded] and stop listening to state governors who are just saying what they think they need to say to endear themselves to power rather than tell him the true feelings of the people,” said Bolaji Abdullahi, the ADC spokesman, on Channels Television’s Politics Today on Wednesday.

Abdullahi’s remarks were in response to statements made by presidential spokesman Daniel Bwala, who had said that insecurity had declined under President Tinubu’s leadership.

Bwala, also appearing on the same programme, argued that the security situation had improved since Tinubu assumed office.

He said, “Recently, we’ve been having a series of problems in Benue. Has it not gone down? We have had in Plateau. Has it not gone down? Look at the IPOB issue, unknown gunmen. You know, 2022, 2023, the case of murder there. You know how they were kidnapping people coming to people’s houses in the heart of the town.”

The presidential aide added, “Insecurity has been degraded to a large extent. What we are seeing in Nigeria is criminal tendencies that have no core relationship with whether somebody is governing well or not, because it exists in every part of this world.”

In contrast, Abdullahi criticised Bwala’s assessment, calling it a distortion of the country’s security situation.

“I feel sorry for President Tinubu because if this is the kind of narrative that he gets to hear all the time, then it is natural and obvious that he lives in a bubble,” he stated.

The ADC expressed concern over worsening insecurity nationwide, claiming that numerous communities remain under threat from criminal elements.

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BIG STORY

Tinubu’s Performance Impressive In Key Areas — North’s Leaders

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The North gave a positive assessment of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration on Wednesday, following presentations by Federal Executive Council members and top government officials. Those present included the National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu, Chief of Defence Staff Gen. Christopher Musa, and governors such as Northern States Governors’ Forum Chairman Inuwa Yahaya (Gombe) and host Governor Uba Sani (Kaduna).

The rating followed a two-day roundtable on Government-Citizen Engagement hosted by the Sir Ahmadu Bello Memorial Foundation (SABMF) in Kaduna. A communiqué released after the sessions noted that participants praised the government’s effective delivery of electoral promises, particularly in areas such as security and infrastructure.

Participants also urged greater investment in education to tackle the issue of out-of-school children, especially in Northern Nigeria.

Minister of Information and National Orientation Mohammed Idris stated that “the verdict from most northern opinion leaders, technocrats, and academics, amongst others, is that the Tinubu Administration is a pro-North in all ramifications – from appointments to spending on the region in infrastructure, health, education, agriculture, livestock, housing, and the unprecedented opportunity it offers for the northern youth.” He added that the ministers and agency heads at the event effectively communicated the administration’s achievements.

Four ministers – Atiku Bagudu (Budget and National Planning), Muhammad Ali Pate (Coordinating Minister, Health and Social Welfare), Saidu Alkali (Transportation), and Aliyu Abdullahi (Minister of State for Agriculture and Food Security) – presented the government’s accomplishments, providing evidence that the North had benefited significantly from the Tinubu administration.

The gathering was used to evaluate the administration’s performance and to promote inclusive and transparent governance.

The communiqué outlined that SABMF held the session at Arewa House in Kaduna from July 29 to 30, 2025, with the theme “Assessing electoral promises: Fostering Government-Citizen Engagement for National Unity.” Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq, Chairman of the Governors’ Forum, represented President Tinubu, while Dr. Aliyu Modibbo Umar, Special Adviser to the President on Special Duties (Office of the Vice President), represented Vice President Kashim Shettima.

Governor Uba Sani served as chief host, and NSGF Chairman Inuwa Yahaya also attended as a special guest. The event was attended by Federal Government representatives, including Secretary to the Government of the Federation Senator George Akume, National Security Adviser, FEC members, federal agency heads, Chief of Defence Staff, and other security chiefs from Northern Nigeria.

The engagement brought together government officials, civil society, academics, traditional and religious leaders, private sector stakeholders, and development partners to discuss electoral promises, governance, and strategies to enhance citizen participation in national unity.

Also present were the Sir Ahmadu Bello Memorial Foundation leadership, headed by Muazu Babangida Aliyu, and the Arewa Consultative Forum, led by Alhaji Bashir Dalhatu.

In addition to goodwill messages and opening remarks, the Foundation appreciated President Tinubu for sending a high-level delegation and continuing a tradition of engagement that began in October 2022.

Keynote speaker Prof. Tijjani Mohammed Bande highlighted regional and national issues, noting their connection to global events. He emphasized Nigeria’s resilience in confronting insecurity, poverty, and educational challenges. He encouraged the North to develop a comprehensive strategy to advance its interests in line with national development objectives.

The session reflected the North’s key role in Nigeria’s political and economic stability, as well as its significant electoral support for Tinubu. The event included plenary discussions on security, governance, economy, agriculture, infrastructure, and human capital development.

Stakeholders commended the government’s effective delivery of its electoral promises, especially in security, infrastructure, and economic reforms.

The summit made the following observations and resolutions:

Key Observations

The administration showed a willingness for dialogue and ongoing engagement with citizens.

The government performed commendably in delivering promises related to security, infrastructure, and economic reforms.

The North plays a significant role in national stability, development, and elections.

The issue of Almajiri and out-of-school children remains a major concern.

Equitable resource allocation is vital for addressing regional imbalances.

Major infrastructure projects are underway, including highways, gas pipelines (AKK), oil exploration (Kolmani), and irrigation schemes.

Developing agricultural value chains and rural industries is important for job creation and food security.

Economic and security reforms must be inclusive and community-focused.

Stronger federal-state cooperation is necessary for regional development.

Key Resolutions

Proposed regular government-citizen dialogue forums at both national and state levels.

Applauded the government’s achievements in key areas like security and infrastructure.

Welcomed more equitable resource allocation to states.

Recommended increased education funding to address the out-of-school crisis.

Called for faster infrastructure development, support for agriculture, and creation of agro-industrial zones.

Endorsed community-driven and inclusive approaches to economic and security policies.

Encouraged collaboration with civil society, traditional, and religious leaders for public advocacy.

Advocated responsible media practices to build trust and unity.

Urged Northern states to strengthen cooperation and their engagement with the federal government.

The summit concluded that the North acknowledges the administration’s strong performance while recognizing existing challenges. Participants called for transparency, fairness, and equity as cornerstones of unity and democracy. They emphasized ongoing collaboration among all stakeholders as essential for peace and prosperity.

The communiqué was signed by SAMF Director General Abubakar Gambo Umar.

Chairman of the Foundation’s Board of Trustees, Mu’azu Babangida Aliyu, urged Northern elites to move past political rivalries and work collectively for regional progress. He expressed concern over the decline in unity and leadership, contrasting the present with the era of leaders like Sir Ahmadu Bello.

He emphasized the importance of supporting Northerners in government, noting that they represent broader regional interests. “No politician from the North can claim today that we don’t have people in government. What we need is to own them, guide them, and ensure they act in our collective interest,” Aliyu said.

Coordinating Minister of Health Muhammad Ali Pate revealed that over N20 billion had been disbursed through the Basic Health Care Provision Fund to support 4,362 primary health centers across the 19 Northern states and the FCT in the last two years. He also mentioned 274 projects in 35 tertiary hospitals in the region, serving over 4.5 million outpatients and 1.6 million inpatients. Pate affirmed the administration’s commitment to improving health infrastructure nationwide.

Transportation Minister Saidu Alkali said the North is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the administration’s infrastructure agenda. He noted that the Kaduna–Kano standard gauge rail project, which was at 15 per cent completion in May 2023, would be completed next year. He also reported progress on the Kano–Maradi line and the Port Harcourt–Maiduguri corridor, along with the rehabilitation of the Lagos–Kano narrow gauge to boost freight transport and dry port operations in Kano and Kaduna.

Alkali highlighted the 1,068-kilometre Sokoto–Badagry Superhighway, linking several states, as a flagship project. “The North is not left out. It is reaping big from this government’s infrastructure revolution. From roads and rail to inland ports and power, the evidence is on the ground,” he said.

Minister of State for Agriculture Aliyu Abdullahi said the government inherited a food crisis and responded with targeted, data-based solutions. He insisted that only real farmers now benefit from government programmes. “No more briefcase farmers,” he declared.

He reaffirmed that the food emergency declared by the president remained in effect, with efforts focused on increasing production, stabilizing food prices, and expanding access. The Agro-Pocket initiative cultivated over 133,000 hectares of wheat in 15 Northern states, surpassing its 130,000-hectare target. Over 50,000 hectares were in Jigawa alone.

He added that rice farmers are also being supported under a plan involving 44,500 producers, with improved extension services addressing the poor farmer-to-extension agent ratio.

Abdullahi said a farmer data audit and registry was being created to eliminate intermediaries and ensure direct support. He also highlighted livestock initiatives such as grazing reserves, livestock villages, and shelters, as well as efforts to develop a national dairy policy. He called on the North to resist those who exploit the system at the expense of genuine farmers.

Minister of State for Works Bello Muhammad Goronyo described the Sokoto–Zaria Highway as an economic lifeline, noting that four contractors were actively working on the project.

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