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BUSINESS: Naira May Fall To N1,993 Per Dollar — BMI Report

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The naira is forecasted to depreciate to N1,993 against the United States dollar by 2028, posing a significant challenge to Nigeria’s pharmaceutical industry, particularly in importing essential medical devices, a new report by BMI, a Fitch Solutions subsidiary, has revealed.

In the report titled “Weak Naira and Structural Challenges to Constrain Nigeria’s Medical Devices Market Growth”, BMI projected that despite an anticipated rebound in the economy, Nigeria’s medical devices sector will face operational and demand challenges in the near term.

The report noted that Nigeria relies on imports for over 95 per cent of its medical devices, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in exchange rates.

“Continued weakness of the naira will increase medical device import costs and erode consumer purchasing power. Similar to other markets in sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria heavily relies on medical device imports, with reliance of over 95 per cent.”

“We expect that the naira will end 2028 at N1,993/$ from N306/$ in 2018. As the naira weakens, the cost of importing medical devices will continually increase, eroding both the health system and patient purchasing power especially to invest in essential medical technologies given underfunding of the public health sector.”

“This would particularly affect high-cost demand for devices such as diagnostics, orthopaedics and dental products. On the export front, a weaker naira will enhance the competitiveness of locally manufactured medical devices, fostering growth in the sector,” the report stated.

While a weaker naira could enhance the competitiveness of locally manufactured medical devices, BMI highlighted persistent barriers to local production.

These include a scarcity of skilled labour, limited access to modern technology, and inadequate infrastructure, which continue to undermine manufacturing efforts despite government incentives.

The administration of President Bola Tinubu has implemented measures aimed at easing these pressures. In June 2024, an executive order was issued to reduce medical service costs by eliminating tariffs, excise duties, and Value Added Tax on specific machinery, equipment, and raw materials, with the goal of lowering local production costs.

However, BMI observed that the medical devices market would continue to face significant challenges in the short term.

The report forecasted that Nigeria’s medical devices market could grow to a value of N171.1bn (£344.7m) by 2028, supported by a large population, an increasing focus on universal health coverage, and the double burden of chronic and communicable diseases.

Nigeria’s economy is expected to recover in 2025, with a growth rate of 3.0 per cent predicted for 2024, compared to 2.9 per cent recorded in 2023.

However, persistent issues such as high inflation, tighter monetary policies, and weak foreign direct investment could weigh on the growth of the medical devices sector.

Further observation showed that the naira traded at N1,681.42 per dollar on Monday, November 11, 2024, reflecting a marginal decline of 0.15 per cent from Friday’s closing rate of N1,678.87, as recorded on November 8, 2024.

FX turnover on the official market dropped significantly by 66.41 per cent, from $1.4bn on Friday to $471.5m on Monday, indicating lower market activity.

During the period under review, the naira reached a high of N1,695 and a low of N1,631.

BIG STORY

World Bank, IMF Forced Nigeria To End Petrol Subsidy — Femi Falana

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Human rights lawyer Femi Falana (SAN) says the federal government’s removal of petrol subsidies was not a domestic policy choice but a condition imposed by international lenders.

Speaking on Sunday Politics on Channels Television, Falana argued that no country in the world has fully abolished subsidies.

“Even the United States, the United Kingdom, France and others subsidise electricity, agriculture and many aspects of people’s lives,” he said.

Falana accused the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of pressuring Nigeria to scrap the policy.

President Bola Tinubu announced the end of petrol subsidy during his inauguration on May 29, 2023, alongside a foreign exchange market unification policy. Both measures triggered record inflation and worsening living standards.

Falana also warned against the federal government’s plan to introduce a five percent fuel surcharge, urging it not to worsen economic hardship. He said existing laws already mandated a fuel levy, but funds were never remitted to the Federal Roads Maintenance Agency (FERMA).

Between 2007 and 2011, Falana said FERMA confirmed it received nothing despite deductions from petrol sales.

“By 2022, even the Senate confirmed that over one trillion naira was owed to FERMA. Before introducing new levies, the government must explain what happened to those earlier deductions,” he said.

Falana also called for an end to the dollarisation of the economy, stressing that rejecting the naira remains a criminal offence.

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Peter Obi Visits Olubadan-Designate Ladoja, Says Nigeria’s History Is Incomplete Without Ibadan

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Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate in the 2023 election, says Nigeria’s history cannot be written without Ibadan, the Oyo state capital.

Obi stated this on Sunday during a visit to Rashidi Ladoja, the Olubadan-designate, at his Bodija residence.

He praised Ibadan’s central role in Nigeria’s political and socio-economic development and commended its people for their hospitality.

“The position of Ibadan in the history of Nigeria cannot be ignored as a home to all because of the hospitable nature of the indigenes,” Obi said.

He described Ladoja, a former governor and senator, as a leader whose experience will shape his reign as the 44th Olubadan of Ibadanland. Obi also pledged personal support to the incoming monarch.

In response, Ladoja said ascending the throne was “another opportunity to serve humanity,” stressing that the Olubadan stool is not about glamour but service.

“It is God who enthroned Olubadan, not because you have money or influential people around you. The time of glamour is gone; it is about service and what you have on the table for the people,” he said.

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Emergency Rule: Ibas Defends Six-Month Tenure As Opposition Demands Probe

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As Rivers State anticipates the return of Governor Siminalayi Fubara on September 18, after six months of emergency rule, the sole administrator, Vice Admiral Ibok Ete Ibas (retd), has defended his stewardship. He maintained that he carried out President Bola Tinubu’s directives and ensured stability in the oil-rich state.

Opposition parties, however, have demanded a probe into Ibas’s administration, raising concerns over his handling of the state’s finances and resources during his six-month tenure at the Brick House.

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) dismissed Ibas’s administration as a waste of time, labeling it unconstitutional, undemocratic, and calling for a thorough investigation.

Similarly, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) condemned the six-month emergency rule, insisting it was illegitimate from the very beginning and amounted to an exercise in futility.

The Labour Party (LP) also criticised the arrangement, alleging that the emergency rule was orchestrated to serve the political interests of President Tinubu and the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, rather than the people of Rivers State.

On the other hand, the All Progressives Congress (APC) commended Ibas for fostering peace and safeguarding citizens’ rights during his tenure as sole administrator.

The party further praised his commitment to democratic principles, particularly in preserving the conduct of local government elections, describing his leadership as a stabilising influence in an otherwise volatile political climate.

Rivers State had been engulfed in political turmoil for nearly two years, largely due to a power tussle between former Governor Nyesom Wike and his successor, Siminalayi Fubara, which resulted in a prolonged governance deadlock.

In response to the crisis, President Tinubu declared a state of emergency on March 18 and appointed Ibas as the sole administrator to manage the state’s affairs during the period.

Two days later, on March 20, both the House of Representatives and the Senate endorsed the President’s declaration, effectively suspending Fubara and the Rivers State House of Assembly away on forced holidays despite widespread public criticism.

Objecting to what they considered an unconstitutional move, 11 PDP governors filed a case at the Supreme Court, registered as SC/CV/329/2025. However, there has been no public update on the matter since then.

Following the reconciliation between Wike and Fubara, the political climate in Rivers has eased.

The state held its local government elections on August 30, with the ruling All Progressives Congress securing 20 seats and the PDP winning the remaining three.

With a few days to the end of his tenure, the sole administrator commenced the transition process ahead of the President’s reinstatement of the suspended governor by September 18.

Thanksgiving service

Speaking at the Interdenominational Thanksgiving Service in Port Harcourt on Sunday ahead of Fubara’s return to power, the sole administrator urged political stakeholders to lay down their differences, emphasising that the progress and prosperity of Rivers State must take precedence over personal or party interests.

However, notable politicians in Rivers, including Wike and Fubara, were absent at the event. Aside from the Chairman of the Rivers State Council of Traditional Ruler, many monarchs in the state were visibly absent at the thanksgiving.

However, Permanent Secretaries, local government chairmen, heads of boards, agencies, parastatals and service commanders in the state graced the occasion.

Ibas, who had last week said he has ‘successfully achieved’ the mandate given to him by President Bola Tinubu in Rivers State.

Ibas noted that his administration has laid the foundation for reconciliation and called on the people to nurture that effort so it can firmly take root.

He also appealed to all stakeholders, including leaders, elders, politicians, and citizens, to always prioritise the state’s well-being above all else.

Ibas stated, “Six months ago, His Excellency President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Nigeria, declared a state of emergency in River State. At that moment, our beloved state stood at a crossroad, torn by divisions, instability, and broken trust. By God’s grace and with the support of Mr. President and all of you, we have worked through those difficult days together.

“Today, as a people, we return thanks to God for preserving our lives, granting us peace, and allowing the successful conduct of the local government council elections across the state and thus laying the foundation for the return of democratic governance in Rivers State.”

Quoting some Bible passages, he said thanksgiving was a solemn testimony of God’s faithfulness to the state, saying, “We have survived storms-political, social, economic, and through it all, God has been faithful.”

Ibas added, “The seeds of reconciliation have been planted. These seeds need your deliberate nurture to take root. Our collective sacrifices and commitment to peace is what we must all strive to guide at this time.

“My brothers and sisters, this Ecumenical Centre (venue of the event) is itself a symbol of unity, different denominations under one roof, lifting one voice to one God. In the same spirit, Rivers people must rise above bitterness, rivalry and self-interest to pursue the greater good of our state.

“The progress and prosperity of the River State must be placed above personal and or partisan interest. I make a special appeal to our political actors, sheathe your sword. Politics must never be an excuse to destroy the very state we are called to serve.

“The progress and prosperity of the River State must be placed above personal or partisan interest. River State cannot afford another season of division and acrimony. We must forgive one another, reconcile with sincerity, and embrace tolerance. Let us remember that no political victory or personal gain is worth the blood of our brothers and sisters.’

He called on all stakeholders to focus their efforts on fostering and maintaining peace in the state.

Ibas added, “Let us forgive, let us reconcile, and let us heal. For where there is peace, there is progress, and where there is love, there is prosperity. To our youth, you are the strength of Rivers State. Do not allow yourselves to be used as tools for violence. Channel your energy into building, creating, and sustaining peace. Your future, our collective future, depends on it.

“While efforts at peace and reconciliation take hold, all stakeholders, leaders, elders, political actors, and citizens alike should put Rivers State first. Let us guide the peace we have, nurture it with love, and grow it with stability and prosperity for generations yet unborn.”

“Our elders must continue to guide with wisdom. Our faith leaders must sustain prayers for peace. Our young people must commit to learning, working, and creating so that Rivers State will continue to shine as the treasure base of the nation.”

In his sermon, Pastor Organ Barasin highlighted that every individual experiences a moment of intervention, noting that the emergency rule was implemented in the state due to prevailing challenges and instability.

“We must admit that we didn’t do well,” he said, pointing out that before the declaration of emergency rule, the intense political tension in the state could have led to a bloodbath if not for divine intervention.

He stated, “Some people may have been killed. The plan of the enemy was to destabilise Rivers State, but Rivers State belongs to God. The plan of the enemy will not stand.

“We are thanking God for his continued sustenance. There is peace in this land. Rivers State will grow industries.

“The peace we have now must be sustained, and God wants us to forget the past. If you don’t let go of the past, you can’t reach out for the future. Brethren, we must learn to forgive and forget the past so that we can move forward.”

The cleric, who lamented the losses the state has endured due to the emergency rule, called for a change in attitude upon Fubara’s return.

He stated, “As we prepare to hand over to a democratic government, if our attitudes don’t change, nothing will change in this state. Our leaders, service chiefs, judiciary and the legislature all have a role to play. Billions have gone.”

Opposition, APC clash

Reacting, the Deputy National Youth Leader of the PDP, Timothy Osadolor, condemned Ibas’s tenure as unlawful.

In an interview (with The Punch) on Sunday, Osadolor called for a comprehensive investigation into the governance in Rivers State under the sole administrator.

He stated, “Well, like I mentioned at the very beginning, he had no business being there as the sole administrator of Rivers State. Rivers State had an elected governor, so that six months of illegality should be corrected and documented, so that when he is there, he can be thoroughly investigated.

“More so, the numerous resources he expended and presided over belong to the Rivers State people, who did not elect him, who did not decide over their affairs or their resources. Therefore, his handover notes should be well-titled in everything they did because the six months must be probed.

“No matter what, we also believe that Mr. President has no right to truncate or suspend the tenure of an elected public officer that was elected the same way he was elected. For checks and balances, those powers should be vested in the Nigerian National Assembly and not in the office of the President.

“More importantly, no elected officer should be made to stay out of the mandate for more than 90 days, if that makes any sense.”

He added that, “His (Ibas) appointment was built on illegality. So he did not achieve anything.”

Also, the National Publicity Secretary of the NNPP, Ladipo Johnson, said Ibas’s tenure lacked legitimacy ab initio.

“The tenure of Rivers’ military administrator is almost like an exercise in futility. This is because his take-off was an aberration of the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

“We still maintain that it was an illegality. For one reason or another, they seem to have found some sort of political solution to the problem that was not even half as dangerous as what we had in some parts of Northern Nigeria, which needed a state of emergency to improve the insecurity they are facing.

“When we say a state of emergency, we are not talking about removing an elected government for one appointee. There is nowhere in the Constitution that allows it. We still maintain that. So, the earlier the illegal tenure comes to an end, the sooner we return to constitutional order and to the expression of the will of the people in Rivers State.

“How do you justify the administration of a military administrator? You look at things from a democratic value. It is just an exercise in futility,” Johnson said.

Speaking in a similar tone, the Interim National Publicity Secretary of the Labour Party, Tony Akeni, alleged that Ibas merely served as a placeholder for Tinubu and his political ally, Wike.

“There are two designs by President Tinubu and his favourite South-South sidekick, Wike, in the coup and siege against democracy in River state. The political and the economic designs,” Akeni claimed.

He alleged that the “political design” was to emasculate Fubara and secure Rivers for the ruling APC ahead of 2027, while the “economic design” was to divert state revenues through local councils loyal to Wike.

“To assess Sole Administrator Admiral Ibok-Eke Ibas’s performance during the period, his only achievement is that he did a good job standing in for his adopted new masters, Tinubu and Wike,” Akeni stated.

“In both plots, Tinubu and Wike fully succeeded. The only plot left they don’t know about is that they do not own tomorrow. Yes, they don’t. In 2027, Tinubu and Wike may wake up to find that it is God and Rivers State’s 7.2 million reborn citizens who actually own and will determine their destiny in 2027.

“Not the two clay emperors riding roughshod over their governor, Simi Fubara, and their treasury today.”

However, the APC Director of Publicity, Bala Ibrahim, praised the sole administrator for restoring peace and safeguarding the citizens’ electoral rights.

In an interview (with The Punch), Ibrahim stated that only the President, who defined the administrator’s terms of reference, is in a position to properly assess Ibas’ performance.

He stated, “Well, you see, as a party, we are not privy to the terms of reference given to the administrator in Rivers. But whether he has achieved or acted according to the provisions or the expectation of the terms of reference is another thing.

“What matters to us as a party is the peaceful coexistence of the people and the freedom given to the people of Rivers State to exercise the franchise of election, as done during the local government election.

“That has been done peacefully, democratically, and in an era that shows that, yes, the people are happy with the dividend of democracy given to them under the national leadership of the APC.

“So, to that extent, we are happy with the conduct of the affairs of the administrator. But whether he has acted according to what he was sent to do is an assessment that can basically be given by the presidency, which gave him that task.”

The APC called on Fubara to embrace democratic principles once his suspension is lifted.

He added, “Well, if his suspension is lifted and he’s asked to resume, I think he must have learned. He would have licked his wounds so well as to leave no room for infection.

“He should not allow anything to happen in a way and manner that would put him off the seat of power. As provided by the mandate given to him by the people, he should be a democrat. He should play democracy by the book and do as expected of him as a politician who was elected to serve the people.”

Groups demand probe

Additionally, the President of the Ijaw Youth Council, Jonathan Lokpobiri, alleged that the six-month emergency rule was marked by widespread corruption.

He added, “If you seek my honest opinion, Rivers State has lost not just the issue of governance, but investors’ confidence in terms of people’s perception about the stability in terms of polity.

“Also, I do believe that Rivers’ resources were plundered, which the man has no business having access to. It became private resources where he didn’t limit his tenure to doing the basics about governance in terms of maintaining the peace and all of that. He has gone into the dimension of an executive governor of Rivers State, where if the President did not make it clear to him, he would have wished to even continue.’’

Also commenting, the Publicity Secretary, Movement for the Survival of Ogoni People, Oscar Imeabe, argued that the emergency rule impacted negatively on the state.

“The emergency rule has reportedly crippled economic activities in the state by chasing away investors and entrepreneurs. It has been a major setback to the history of Rivers State. The Administrator dissolved state institutions like the Rivers State Independent Electoral Commission, the Rivers State Micro-Finance Agency, boards of many tertiary institutions and agencies that were appointed by a democratically elected governor and proceeded to make illegal appointments which he wants to leave behind,” he stated.

Imeabe, who is also the Coordinator, South-South Youths Initiative, called for an investigation into Ibas’ tenure.

“MOSOP is hereby calling for an investigation into the financial management of the state by the administrator. And my organisation, South-South Youths Initiative, the coalition of youths bodies, call on the EFCC and ICPC to probe the allegations of financial misappropriation by the state administrator.”

A former Senator, Lee Maeba, who represented Rivers South-East District in the National Assembly, described the situation during Ibas’s tenure as dire.

In an interview with our correspondent, he stated, “Rivers State has lost so much money, and we have to account for it. President Bola Tinubu has to account for our money. We have lost a huge amount of money. Six months of allocation, Internally Generated Revenue, and all other statutory earnings, I mean.

“How can you just suspend a governor and begin to play with all the monies meant for the state? The Administrator is behaving however he likes. An Administrator who was asked to go and restore security, but he went there and became completely in charge of politics.

“So, it’s a terrible thing to do. I don’t believe the President can go this low. It is the lowest level a President can go. He does not have any respect for anybody in Rivers because we elected him President. It’s a terrible thing to talk about.”

Maeba, who called for an investigation into the six months, stated that those who supported the state of emergency would face the consequences.

He stated, “The Constitution does not envisage that you will suspend a governor. There is nowhere in the Constitution that you will suspend a governor. And the terrible National Assembly stood by the President to do all the terrible things he did in Rivers. So, may that which happened in Rivers not happen in another state in Nigeria. I don’t pray it happens to any other state at all.’’

“And what has happened to Rivers is not gone. We will stand up to demand all the money that came to the state and the power of the Administrator to just jump into a state and start spending state money in the name of an emergency that does not exist. The State of Emergency that we hear is to restore security breaches or the breakdown of law and order. Now, in this case, the man just came for politics because there was no case of insecurity. He came and started using state resources without any constitutional powers or law allowing him to do that.”

 

Credit: The Punch

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