When the opposition coalition, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), debuted in July, it did so with fanfare, casting itself as a new political force determined to shake up Nigeria’s political landscape.
When the opposition coalition, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), was launched in July, it entered the political scene with great fanfare, positioning itself as a force capable of reshaping Nigeria’s political landscape.
The coalition, which includes prominent figures such as Peter Obi, the 2023 Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate; Atiku Abubakar, former vice-president; David Mark, former senate president; Nasir el-Rufai, former Kaduna governor; and Rotimi Amaechi, ex-governor of Rivers State, vowed to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and resist what it described as attempts to turn Nigeria into a one-party state.
Its formation was widely seen as a strategic response to the fragmentation of the opposition vote in the 2023 elections — a split that ultimately paved the way for President Bola Tinubu’s victory.
However, months after its highly publicised debut, the coalition’s electoral performance has fallen short of expectations.
The first major test for the ADC-led alliance came in August 2025, when the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) conducted a series of by-elections across federal and state constituencies. The coalition failed to win a single seat and has yet to record any victories in local government polls.
A second opportunity came with the Anambra governorship election held on November 8. The ADC finished fifth with just 8,208 votes. The All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) won decisively with 422,664 votes, followed by the APC with 99,445, the Young Progressives Party (YPP) with 37,753, and the Labour Party (LP) with 10,576.
Days before the poll, Atiku Abubakar endorsed the ADC candidate, John Nwosu, urging Anambra voters to “end the era of poor governance.” In a statement, the former vice-president described the election as “a unique opportunity to ensure that the ruling APC does not get the chance of practising its notoriety of snatching and running away with the mandate of the people.”
But Atiku’s appeal failed to translate into votes.
Before the coalition adopted the ADC as its platform, the party held only two seats in the House of Representatives. On July 2, opposition leaders formally announced the ADC as their umbrella platform, followed by a leadership shake-up that saw Ralph Nwosu’s executives step aside for a transitional team headed by David Mark.
The next day, Peter Obi reaffirmed his commitment to the coalition, describing it as a necessary step to confront Nigeria’s challenges and chart a new direction for the country.
“Our commitment is to sacrifice and work together towards the 2027 general elections, ensuring that Nigeria gets a competent, capable, and compassionate leadership that will prioritise the nation’s future by putting the welfare of Nigerians first,” Obi said.
Atiku, meanwhile, has continued to promote the ADC on social media as a credible platform for a broad opposition movement aimed at “rescuing Nigeria” from what he calls the “incompetent and dictatorial” APC government. Since mid-2025, he has urged Nigerians — especially youths and grassroots organisers — to engage with the ADC, attend its events, and present a united front against entrenched political interests.
Despite this enthusiasm, the coalition’s poor showing in recent elections has exposed the gap between national visibility and voter mobilisation. Analysts say the results suggest that high-profile endorsements do not necessarily influence outcomes at the state level.
Losses not indicative of 2027 prospects
Speaking to TheCable on Monday, a senior party member, Abdullahi, argued that the dynamics of local elections differ from national contests. He noted that even at the peak of the PDP’s dominance, Anambra remained under APGA’s control, and the APC has also struggled to gain ground there.
He added that the coalition was still in its infancy when the August by-elections took place and that the candidates in those races had been nominated before the alliance was formed. “These results do not reflect how Nigerians are likely to respond to the coalition in future elections,” Abdullahi said.
What’s Next
As preparations for the 2027 general elections gather pace, the ADC coalition faces a critical test: transforming its political visibility into organisational strength. Its ability to build a credible grassroots voter base — beyond elite networks — will determine whether it can pose a serious challenge to the APC or remain a short-lived political experiment.
The Ekiti governorship election next year will offer the coalition another opportunity to demonstrate whether it can turn its ambitions into real electoral strength.