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United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc is on the top list of companies with well-rounded performance. UBA’s top-of-the-chart performance at the stock market combines with considerable growth in all key fundamental indicators to make the bank the best performing banking stock in recent period. Capital Market Editor Taofik Salako, in this report, reviews the interplay of fundamental earnings and share price appreciation

United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc outperformed all banking stocks in the first quarter of 2017 with a share price appreciation of 28.22 per cent. It had recorded the second highest price gain of 33.1 per cent in 2016, just slightly under three points behind Guaranty Trust Bank (GTB), which led the sector with 35.9 per cent.

Altogether, UBA’s share price had grown by more than 60 per cent in the past 15 months, the highest by any bank and one of the few bright spots in the long-running depression at the stock market. Average return at the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) in the first quarter of 2017 was negative at -5.05 per cent.

The NSE Banking Index was down by 0.03 per cent while the NSE 30 Index, which tracks large-cap stocks, was almost on the average with a three-month return of -4.93 per cent. In  2016, the stock market had recorded a full-year average return of -6.17 per cent, equivalent to net capital loss of N604 billion.

Only 19 companies, including three banks, recorded a capital gain of 20 per cent and above in 2016, underlining the general downtrend that marked price changes during the period. A long-running depression had seen quoted equities losing N4 trillion in the past three years, including N1.75 trillion and N1.63 trillion in 2014 and 2015 respectively.

UBA’s share price appears to be riding on the crest of positive analysts’ reviews. There is almost analysts’ consensus on the attractiveness of the UBA. Investment research and rating firms such as Renaissance Capital, CSL Stockbrokers, Fitch and Augusto among others had maintained that UBA has strong fundamentals to support substantial price appreciation. UBA Group’s audited report and accounts for the year ended December 31, 2016 supported the positive view of its earnings potential, in spite of the Nigerian economic recession.

Improving earnings

Key extracts of the Group’s audited report showed impressive growths in the top-line and the bottom-line as it continued to expand its assets base. Group;s gross earnings rose by 21.9 per cent from N314.84 billion in 2015 to N383.65 billion in 2016. Interest income had grown by 15 per cent from N229.63 billion in 2015 to N263.97 billion.

With 2.9 per cent increase in interest expense from N96.03 billion to N98.77 billion, net interest income rose by 23.7 per cent to N165.2 billion in 2016 compared with N133.6 billion in 2015. This underlined the profitability of the group’s core banking business. Group profit before tax grew by 32.4 per cent to N90.64 billion in 2016 as against N68.45 billion in 2015. After taxes, net profit rose by 21.1 per cent from N59.65 billion to N72.26 billion. With these, earnings per share increased from N1.79 in 2015 to N2.04 in 2016.

UBA Group’s balance sheet also emerged stronger with total assets rising by 27.3 per cent from N2.75 trillion in 2015 to N3.5 trillion in 2016. Customers’ deposit rose by 19.7 per cent from N2.08 trillion to N2.49 trillion. Loans and advances recorded above average growth of 44.2 per cent to N1.50 trillion in 2016 as against N1.04 trillion in 2015, underlining  the bank’s commitment to economic development. Shareholders’ funds also increased by 33.5 per cent from N325.83 billion in 2015 to N434.85 billion in 2016.

Key underlying ratios showed that the growth in 2016 was driven by improvements in the intrinsic operational performance and management. Net interest margin, which underlines the profitability of the core banking business, improved to 62.6 per cent in 2016 as against 58.2 per cent in 2015. This corroborated the reduction in cost of fund. Pre-tax profit margin, which measures the underlining profitability of the group’s businesses, also improved from 21.7 per cent in 2015 to 23.6 per cent in 2016.

On the back of improved earnings, the bank increased dividend payout to shareholders by 25 per cent, further enhancing the total real return on investment built up significantly by capital appreciation. Shareholders received final dividend payment of N19.9 billion for the 2016 business year, in addition to N7.3 billion interim dividend paid after the audit of its 2016 half-year results. With this, shareholders received a final dividend per share of 55 kobo in addition to interim dividend of 20 kobo, bringing total dividend for the 2016 business year to 75 kobo as against 60 kobo paid for the 2015 business year. A dividend yield of more than 14 per cent further placed UBA within the top yields at the stock market. This surpassed the 13.01 per cent coupon on the two-year tenored Federal Government National Savings Bonds.

Sustained growth

The latest audit report confirmed UBA Group’s steady performance over the years. A five-year medium term review showed that total assets have grown steadily from N2.27 trillion in 2012 to N3.50 trillion in 2016. Net loans and advances more than doubled from N658.9 billion in 2012 to N1.50 trillion in 2016. Customers’ deposits also followed the uptrend, jumping from N1.72 trillion in 2012 to N2.49 trillion in 2016. Shareholders’ funds rose consecutively from N189.11 billion in 2012 to N434.85 billion in 2016. Profit before tax, which stood at N52.01 billion in 2012, had defied recession to rise to N90.64 billion in 2016 while profit after tax rose from N54.77 billion in 2012 to N72.26 billion in 2016.

Most analysts have rated UBA Group high on its fundamentals. “We note improvement in profitability and the bank’s good asset quality. The rating takes into cognizance the weak macroeconomic climate on the banking industry’s asset quality, in which we do not expect UBA to be excluded. Nonetheless, we note positively its diversified geographical reach, which will cushion to an extent the impact of the weak Nigerian economic climate,” Agusto & Co stated in its recent credit rating report.

Nigeria’s foremost local rating agency, Agusto & Co,  had upgraded UBA’s rating from “A+” to “Aa-”, with a stable outlook, citing the bank’s improved capitalisation, good liquidity and large pool of stable deposits, strong domestic presence supported by the bank’s extensive branch network and growing alternative banking channels.

Also, Fitch International, one of the foremost global rating agencies, in its latest report affirmed and upgraded its ratings for the bank citing strong earnings and asset quality. Fitch affirmed UBA’s viability rating at “B” as the pan-African banking group continues to sustain its benchmark asset quality and strong profitability amidst industry and macroeconomic challenges. UBA is one of the few banks with strong risk management framework, which has helped kept non-performing loans ratio at a moderate level of 1.74 per cent as at the end of March 2016.

Strength in diversity

Other African subsidiaries contributed about one hird of the group’s profit in 2016, reflecting the increasing market share of the group outside its Nigerian home. UBA operates in 18 other African countries including Ghana, Republic of Benin, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Mozambique, Zambia, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Congo DR, Congo Brazzaville, Cameroon, Chad and Gabon. UBA also has presence in United Kingdom, United States and France.

Geographical segment analysis showed the group performance was buoyed by above average growths in its foreign subsidiaries. The other 18 African subsidiaries recorded pre and post tax profit of N31.4 billion and N24.32 billion respectively on total earnings of N121.9 billion in 2016, considerable growths on pre-tax profit of N18.8 billion and post-tax profit of N14.14 billion recorded on total incomes of N67.72 billion in 2015. Other non-African global operations also improved in 2016 with total income of N9.8 billion and pre and post tax profits of N3.4 billion and N3.37 billion respectively. Other non-African global subsidiaries had recorded gross earnings of N6.01 billion and pre and post tax profit of N1.95 billion each in 2015.

Operating segment analysis also showed that the overall performance rested on evenly spread improvements across the key business segments. Corporate banking recorded gross earnings of N116.63 billion, profit before tax of N43.46 billion and profit after tax of N37.69 billion in 2016 compared with N101.07 billion, N29.04 billion and N25.31 billion recorded respectively in 2015. Retail and commercial banking segment, the largest segment, grew top-line to N227.57 billion in 2016 with profits before and after  tax of N29.44 billion and N20.05 billion respectively. Total revenue in the segment had stood at N185.19 billion in 2015 with profit before tax of N26.52 billion and profit after tax of N23.11 billion.

Outlook

The board and management of UBA said the banking group is well-positioned for sustainable long-term growth that will continue to ensure commensurate returns to shareholders. Chairman, United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, Mr. Tony Elumelu, noted that most African countries were implementing policy measures that should help stimulate inclusive economic growth, ease macro pressures and lower the cost of doing business. According to him, while Africa has experienced a difficult period; the UBA group welcomed 2017 with renewed optimism as it truly believes that “Africa is Rising”.

“Our pan- Africa operations have delivered on the promises we made at the outset of our growth strategy and we are beginning to reap the benefits of one the largest network in Africa. As we navigate the fast changing market place, we are increasingly digitalising our core business, as we explore new markets and means of embracing customers experience, gain increased share of customers’ wallet and offer new services. I am very optimistic that we will sustain the strong growth trajectory, as we continue to gain market share, leveraging our core values of enterprise, excellence and execution,” Elumelu outlined.

Group managing director, United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, Mr. Kennedy Uzoka also assured that the bank is optimistic of continuing growth in the years ahead.

“The 2017 outlook remains positive in most of our markets. We are not aware unaware of the macro challenges, competition and constantly changing customer preferences.  We will further sweat our unique Pan Africa platform to improve productivity, extract efficiency gains and grow our share of customers’ wallet across all business lines and markets,” Uzoka said.

According to him, as the banking group continues with its customer first philosophy, shareholders can look forward to better performance, especially with the outlook remaining positive in most of the group’s markets.

“We will build on our strong governance culture, zero-tolerance for infractions and transparency in furthering our frontiers of leadership in the African market,” Uzoka said.

BIG STORY

Oil Marketers Project N950 Per Litre As Dangote Slashes Petrol Price

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Oil marketers operating under the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria have forecast a reduction in the retail price of Premium Motor Spirit, commonly known as “petrol,” to N950 per litre in Lagos State.

It also indicated that customers in the Federal Capital Territory may pay N990 per litre.

The IPMAN National Publicity Officer, Chief Chinedu Ukadike, shared this insight during an interview with our correspondent, emphasizing that the product will now be priced below a thousand naira.

He stated, “Once there is a price reduction, it will trickle down. There will be a change to the pump price. It will be less than N1,000. But the difference will be determined by location. It may be N950 in Lagos and possibly N990 in Abuja. Logistics will play a key role. Remember that the price of “diesel” hasn’t reduced and that is what we put in our tankers.”

This anticipated price decrease follows the decision by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery to lower its ex-depot price to N899.50 per litre.

The new price is the second reduction within a month and a decrease of N71 or seven.per cent from the previously adjusted price of N970 per litre on November 24.

Earlier on Thursday, a statement by the Group Chief Branding and Communications Officer of Dangote Group, Anthony Chiejina, announced the introduction of a special petrol price offer to benefit Nigerians.

In addition to the holiday discount, it said customers are now allowed to purchase an additional litre of fuel on credit for every litre bought on a cash basis.

The refinery offered a price of N899.5 (cash payment) for two million litres and a matching two million litres on a Bank Guarantee valid for 15 days (Access, Zenith & First Bank) from the N970 per litre announced by the company last month.

It also proposed an N895 (cash payment) for 10 million litres and a matching 10 million litres on a BG valid for 15 days (Access, Zenith & First Bank).

It said the reduction is to provide much-needed relief for Nigerians ahead of the holiday season.

Chiejina said, “To alleviate transport costs during this holiday season, Dangote Refinery is offering a holiday discount on PMS. From today, our petrol will be available at N899.50 per litre at our truck loading gantry or SPM. Furthermore, for every litre purchased on a cash basis, consumers will have the opportunity to buy another litre on credit, backed by a bank guarantee from Access Bank, First Bank, or Zenith Bank.”

The refinery also expressed its gratitude to Nigerians for their continued support as the country enters the festive season.

Chiejina further emphasised the refinery’s commitment to ensuring Nigerians have access to premium quality petroleum products that are competitively priced, as well as environmentally and engine friendly.

He highlighted that the refinery’s operations mark the end of Nigeria being a dumping ground for substandard and ‘blended’ imported products, which have posed significant risks to human health, machinery, and the environment.

He noted, “The Dangote Refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, is the largest single-train refinery in the world. It is fully capable of meeting 100 per cent of Nigeria’s refined petroleum product requirements, with a surplus available for export.”

Last week, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria sought a reduction in the price of petrol from the refinery.

The group urged the Dangote refinery to consider reducing its ex-depot price from N970 per litre since the estimated cost of landing petrol on Nigeria’s shores has dropped to N900.28 per litre.

Reacting to the new price change, the IPMAN Chairman, Abubakar Maigandi, said the gesture was expected and will reduce the retail price of petrol once offtaking begins.

Abubakar, in an interview with Arise TV, said, “What Dangote has done is what we have been expecting. My marketers are very happy about the reduction, which they have put at the rate of N899.50 per litre for those who are buying two million litres and those buying above 10 million litres will also have their reduction. This is a welcome development. We are happy because we know that the masses will enjoy the benefits.

“We have been telling Nigerians to exercise patience; we knew the price would drop, and we all are seeing it now little by little. The offer to get one million on credit after purchasing two million is also welcome.”

On the reduction of the retail price, he noted, “Once we start picking up products, we are going to change our price so that the consumer will enjoy the benefit.

“Our major challenge was the cost of products from Dangote, so I assure you that with this, all transportation and economic activities will change, especially because transportation is a major driver, and we hope to resolve it with this new change. Now, there is no need to import products from outside the country.”

Also speaking, the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria applauded the management of Dangote refinery for slashing the ex-depot price of PMS to N899.50 per litre.

According to the National President of PETROAN, Dr Billy Gillis-Harry, “The price reduction will alleviate the suffering of Nigerians and reduce the cost of living and transportation during this festive period.”

Harry commended the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited for ensuring sufficient PMS stocks during the yuletide season. However, he urged NNPCL to revisit its PMS selling rate to foster competition in the downstream sector.

“The reduction in petrol prices by Dangote Refinery has shown that competition can benefit consumers,”

Harry emphasised, “We call on NNPCL to facilitate the privatization of the Port Harcourt Refinery, which will introduce innovative consumer incentives, improve product quality, and enhance service delivery.”

Speaking further in an interview with our correspondent, the PETROAN President stated that its members, empathetic to the suffering of Nigerians, have lowered their prices at retail outlets to nearly N900.

Gillis-Harry said the gesture is intended to demonstrate their leadership in the downstream sector and ensure an adequate supply of petroleum products for Nigerians during the Yuletide season.

He said, “PETROAN members and leadership have reduced their price to almost N900 in several stations even before the Dangote reduction. When we made a strategic agreement with Dangote, even when we hadn’t concluded the whole process. We already know that the PMS and other products will be reviewed and reduced. PETROAN is leading the way to ensure fuel sufficiency and availability. We are making the sacrifice to show our leadership and provide relief for Nigerians.”

Meanwhile, the NNPCL has faltered in its mandate to deliver 385,000 barrels of crude to Dangote Refinery in the month of December, a new report by Argus has stated.

It said the national oil firm only supplied around 202,000 barrels per day in December.

The report further noted that the ramp-up of production at the 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery, likely to occur next year, will affect West African crude trade flows in 2025.

“The refinery remains well below full capacity for now, with estimated deliveries averaging just under 260,000 b/d since March, but Nigerian operator Dangote Group is aiming for 350,000 b/d throughout the first phase of operations.

“When this takes place, and Dangote makes full use of its 385,000 b/d monthly allocation deal with state-owned NNPC, it will affect the amount of Nigerian crude left to be exported to the country’s key outlet – the European market,” it stated.

Although NNPC only supplied around 202,000 b/d in December, the total volume under the deal is equivalent to around a quarter of Nigeria’s crude and condensate monthly exports.

“The deal will eventually bring support to Nigerian crude differentials when European demand is stronger or at least cushion the decline when demand is weaker,” it added.

As Dangote ramps up operations, the refiner could widen its crude slate, which could also affect crude trade flows.

The refinery will take receipt of a 2m barrels cargo of US light sweet WTI bought from Chevron via a tender that closed in November, after a three-month hiatus related to credit issues.

The report noted that Dangote has so far run exclusively on Nigerian crude and WTI, but Nigerian banks eased restrictions on the provision of trade finance to the refiner, which could open the door for possible purchases of non-Nigerian West African crude.

Sources close to the refinery point to Angolan heavy and medium sweet grades as likely to become part of the refinery’s basket intake.

Market participants also pointed out that the recent WTI tender might signal Dangote’s attempt to increase run rates.

 

Credit: The Punch

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BIG STORY

BREAKING: Dangote Refinery Slashes Petrol Price To N899.50

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Dangote Petroleum Refinery has announced a reduction in the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to N899.50 per litre, offering relief to Nigerians as the holiday season draws near.

This follows a previous price cut to N970 per litre on November 24. The latest reduction is aimed at alleviating transportation costs during the festive period, when travel expenses typically rise for many Nigerians.

The announcement was made in a statement issued on Thursday by Anthony Chiejina, the Group Chief Branding and Communications Officer of Dangote Group.

 

More to come…

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BIG STORY

2025: LCCI Warns Businesses, Says Prepare For More Stress Next Year

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The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) says Nigerian businesses may likely face greater challenges in the new year, urging them to prepare for “more stress.”

In a statement on Monday, Chinyere Almona, LCCI’s director-general, said businesses are likely to face higher interest rates when the next Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting holds.

“The persistent rise in the inflation rate, reaching a 28-year record high of 34.60 in November, continues to fuel a tense business environment as elevated prices constrain various business operations,” Almona said.

“The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) is particularly concerned because, with the persistent and unabated rise in inflation, businesses should prepare for more stress from the burden of higher interest rates as we enter the new year.”

“With the raging inflation rate, the unsuccessful attempt of the Central Bank to reduce the currency in circulation, and approaching a high-spending festive period, we are set to contend with even higher interest rates as the expected outcome from the next decisions by the CBN Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).”

Almona explained that a high inflation rate has significant implications, including reduced consumer spending.

She said it negatively impacts the economy by reducing disposable income, increasing business costs, and discouraging investments, ultimately threatening economic growth.

‘FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN NIGERIA DROPPED TO $103.82M IN Q3 2024’

According to the statement, foreign direct investments (FDIs) in Nigeria dropped to $103.82 million in Q3 2024, making the country less attractive to investors.

Almona said interest rates have had limited success in curbing inflation, but reforms aimed at boosting production have shown some promise.

She expressed hope that the reforms would eventually have a stronger impact on key indicators such as inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates.

The director-general said a coordinated effort is required to drive oil production to earn more forex, which is needed to defend the naira in the short term.

“The new investments recently entering the oil fields can be well supported with a sound regulatory environment to sustain and attract more,” she said.

“A disappointing negative record of our capital importation at $1.25bn during the third quarter of 2024 compared with $2.60bn recorded in the preceding second quarter of the year points to an unattractive environment for investors.”

“Foreign Direct Investment, the most critical investment that shows long-term investor confidence, accounted for only $103.82m, or 8.29 percent.”

Almona added that the fight against terrorism and crime must be sustained to ensure the safety of farmlands.

She noted that the rising costs of food, energy, housing, transportation, and services are driving inflation, worsening economic conditions, and reducing both purchasing power and business profitability.

However, Almona stated that the LCCI believes ongoing reforms have the potential to deliver significant benefits, enabling the economy to return to a growth path and achieve positive outcomes for critical economic indicators, provided they are sustained.

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