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SECURITY: Buhari, Declare State Of Emergency In Kaduna

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The terrorists, who last week staged a series of attacks in the Northern states, including assaulting the Kaduna-Abuja train and ambushing and killing military troops confirmed that undoubtedly, Nigeria is at war. The country is assailed from within by expanding armies of well-armed terrorists and criminals,   overwhelming a crumbling security apparatus. The situation is worsened by incompetent governance. It is time to shift to war-footing to save the country from being overrun.

The President, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), must act decisively: declare a full-fledged state of emergency in Kaduna immediately and extend this, if necessary, to other besieged states. This is no time for politics.

Sundry criminals are waging a ruthless war against Nigerians. Apart from Boko Haram/ISWAP Islamic terrorists in the North-East and Fulani herdsmen/militants everywhere else, terrorists riding on the back of a separatist agitation are spilling blood in the South-East. Beyond his endless, never-enforced orders to security chiefs, Buhari must take charge.

There should be an effective strategy. The North-West states and Niger, Benue, Plateau in the North-Central are as destabilized as Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa, the epicenter of the Boko Haram/ISWAP Islamist insurgency.

The attacks in Kaduna require full emergency rule in the North-West state. Governor Nasir el-Rufai admitted, “We are in a state of war; this place should be declared a war zone.” Presidential spokesman, Femi Adesina, in a departure from the regime’s perpetual denial mode, echoed this: “They (terrorists) have declared war against the country and its people. We are war, yes, we are!” Many patriots have been saying so before now.

Terrorists on Monday bombed and opened fire on a Kaduna-bound train from Abuja, killing several persons and injuring many others. A day later, they attacked the Gidan Train Station. A week earlier, about 200 terrorists on motorbikes twice had attacked the Kaduna International Airport. A day before, terrorists invaded nine villages in the Giwa Local Government Area, killed 50 people, razed houses, rustled cows, and burnt 30 vehicles.

Brazenly, a few days later, the bandits/terrorists ambushed a military team on the Abuja-Kaduna Highway, killing seven soldiers.

Zamfara, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto in the North-West; Niger, Plateau, Benue, Nasarawa, Kogi, and Kwara in the North-Central have been infested by terrorists. Kaduna, home to several military bases, is under siege. Civil society groups said 1,545 persons were killed in the first quarter of this year in Kaduna and neighboring states. Over 5,000 others have been kidnapped in the last two years. Attacks by Fulani herdsmen on Southern Kaduna communities are unrelenting. Bandits have attacked the Nigerian Defence Academy, kidnapped school children en masse, and burnt down communities. Kaduna is indeed a war zone.

Buhari should act or be compelled to do so by Nigerians. First, stop living in denial. As el-Rufai emphasized, this is no ordinary criminality. He fingered Boko Haram in the train assault; terrorists have joined forces with so-called bandits and Fulani herdsmen.

Next, admit that the security system is institutionally incapable of securing the country. Every law enforcement effort, say experts, is local. Immediately, state and local security agencies must be established, equipped, trained, and well-armed to defend lives and property. Ukraine’s people are showing the way how to defend themselves through local volunteer units. The National Assembly should immediately invoke the “doctrine of necessity” to alter the 1999 Constitution to facilitate this.

Buhari can no longer ignore the serial intelligence failures, the poor response, incompetent preparation, and lethargy of the security agencies. The attacks on Kaduna alone should have prompted sackings and resignations by commanders. Responsible leadership elsewhere never tolerates such carelessness or failure in national security matters. The head of the French military intelligence has been sacked for failing to predict Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sacked two generals for laxity in Ukraine’s heroic defensive war.

The State Security Service, the police, and the military have performed poorly, even when allowances are made for institutional constraints. The SSS is too focused on regime critics and self-determination activists against whom it takes very strong measures, including raids, violation of human rights and court orders, and detention. It is strangely less vigorous against the so-called bandits. Its attitude towards Fulani herdsmen/murderers is even more benign.

The military failed to prevent attacks on the airport, its patrols, and bases. The police compound their incompetence by retaining over 70 percent of their field personnel in personal protection duty for VIPs even as civilians and police officers alike are being slaughtered.

There is another more sinister dimension: the failure of security agents to act on actionable intelligence. El-Rufai was blunt: “We know where their camps are, we know where they (terrorists) are; the SSS have their phone numbers, they listen to them, and they give me the report. We know what they are planning. We should be waiting for them to attack; why can’t we go after them?” Buhari and NASS should demand answers from the National Security Adviser, Babagana Monguno, the Director-General of the SSS, Yusuf Bichi, the Inspector-General of Police, Usman Baba, and the military chiefs.

As this newspaper has recommended before, it is time to invoke the constitutional provision for a state of emergency. Desperate situations require desperate legal action. Beginning with Kaduna, a virtual military fortress, Buhari, and NASS should act. Unlike the politically-correct partial emergency in the North-East, this should be a full emergency, requiring elected officials—governors, lawmakers—to stand down.

Section 305 of the 1999 Constitution provides: “The President shall have the power to issue a Proclamation of a state of emergency only when – (a) the Federation is at war; (b) the Federation is in imminent danger of invasion or involvement in a state of war…” The Zamfara State Government estimates that there are about 30,000 “bandits” in the state. One study puts their number in the North-West at about 120,000! Add the estimated 8,000 to 15,000 active Boko Haram/ISWAP fighters and Nigeria seems overwhelmed. Meanwhile, one estimate says that not more than 135,000 personnel—Army, Navy, and Air Force—are available for national defense.

As President, Olusegun Obasanjo 2006 declared a State of Emergency in Ekiti ostensibly to prevent the South-West state from descending into anarchy. Buhari should follow suit to save the country from a demonstrably much more dire existential threat.

BIG STORY

Nigeria’s Crude Oil Production Now 1.8million Barrels Per Day (BPD) — NNPCL

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited says Nigeria’s oil production has reached 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd).

According to NAN, Lawal Musa, NNPC chief production war room officer, spoke during a briefing on the national oil company’s production on Thursday.

Musa, who doubles as a senior business advisor to Mele Kyari, NNPC group chief executive officer (GCEO), said the increased oil production followed the continuous dislodgement of pipeline vandals and crude oil thieves.

He said the achievement was based on the partnership between the leadership of the company, stakeholders, and security agencies.

“We achieved this because of the clear mandate by President Bola Tinubu to ramp up crude oil production in the country,” Musa said.

On November 11, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) said Nigeria’s current production level, including crude oil and condensates, has reached 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 1.54 million bpd in September.

Enorense Amadasu, executive commissioner of development and production at NUPRC, said there are plans to raise the figure to 2 million bpd by year-end.

Amadasu said the country’s crude oil and condensate output is expected to increase amid a plan to open bids for 31 onshore and offshore oil blocks.

The next day, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production, excluding condensates, increased marginally to 1.33 million bpd in October.

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BIG STORY

FEC Approves $2.2bn Borrowing Plan To Support Economic Reforms

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The federal executive council (FEC) has approved a $2.2 billion external borrowing plan to strengthen the country’s finances and support economic reforms.

Wale Edun, the minister of finance and coordinating minister of the economy, spoke to journalists at the end of the FEC meeting on Thursday, presided over by President Bola Tinubu.

The minister said the financing package will be raised through a combination of eurobonds and sukuk.

He said approximately $1.7 billion is expected from the eurobond offer and $500 million from the sukuk financing.

The minister disclosed that the borrowing would happen this fiscal year, stressing that the ultimate funding arrangement would be decided by market conditions and the transaction adviser’s counsel.

“The first objective is to complete the federal government’s external borrowing programme with the approval of the $2.2 billion financing package, which will include access to the international capital market through a combination of Eurobonds and Sukuk bonds —approximately $1.7 billion from the Eurobond offer and $500 million from Sukuk financing,” Edun said.

“The actual composition of the financing will be finalised once the national assembly has considered and approved the borrowing plan.

“After the external borrowing approval is granted, the funds will be raised as soon as possible within the year.

“The exact combination of instruments will depend on the advice of transaction advisers and market conditions when we decide to enter the market.

“Earlier in the year, we demonstrated the resilience of the Nigerian financial markets and their capacity to handle more complex and sophisticated offerings, such as the domestic issuance of dollar bonds that attracted investors from both Nigeria and abroad.”

Edun said the success of the domestic dollar bond demonstrates the Nigerian financial market’s tenacity.

He said the most recent overseas borrowing was “made possible by the government’s economic agenda, which includes market-based pricing for important economic variables like foreign exchange and petroleum goods.”

The minister said the council also approved the establishment of a N250 billion real estate investment fund with the goal of addressing Nigeria’s housing deficit.

“Approval has been granted for the Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MOFI) real estate investment fund,” he said.

“This fund will serve as the basis for the revival of long-term mortgage financing in the Nigerian economy.

“The MOFI real estate investment fund will initially amount to N250 billion and will provide low-cost, long-term mortgages to Nigerians who wish to acquire homes. It will help address part of the 22 million-unit housing deficit.

“Of course, it will create jobs, stimulate economic growth, and pave the way for other private sector investors to participate in the housing construction industry, with significant benefits for the broader economy.

“The concept is long-term. Investors will have the opportunity to earn market rates of interest and returns on investment, blended with seed funding of N150 billion.”

Edun said the initiative will provide Nigerians with the opportunity to secure mortgages at interest rates significantly lower than the current market rates, which can exceed 30 percent, with tenures that could extend up to 20 years or more.

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BIG STORY

President Tinubu May Present N47 trillion 2025 Budget To National Assembly Today

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The Federal Government on Thursday approved the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework for 2025 – 2027 and Fiscal Strategy Paper.

According to the MTEF, the proposed 2025 budget size is N47.9tn, with new borrowings of N9.22tn, the Minister of the Budget and Economic Planning, Abubakar Bagudu, told State House Correspondents after this week’s Federal Executive Council meeting at Aso Rock Villa, Abuja.

Bagudu announced, “The Federal Executive Council approved a memorandum by the Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning, which was presented by the Director-General of the Budget Office [Mr Tanimu Yakubu] on the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper for 2025 – 2027.”

The disclosure comes after weeks of delay as President Bola Tinubu prepares to present the 2025 Appropriation Bill to the National Assembly, his second since assuming office in May 2023.

The MTEF, a critical tool the FG uses to outline its fiscal strategy over three years, establishes macroeconomic assumptions and targets that guide national budgeting. It also includes projections of key economic variables such as oil prices, exchange rates, inflation, and growth rates.

For the 2025-2027 period, the MTEF sets out parameters, including an oil price benchmark of $75 per barrel, an oil production target of 2.06 million barrels per day, an exchange rate of N1,400 to the US dollar, and a GDP growth rate of 4.6 percent.

The FG’s projected aggregate expenditure for 2025 is N47.9tn, with planned borrowing of N13.8tn, equating to 3.87 percent of GDP.

The minister explained, “For the 2025-2027 period, the MTEF sets out parameters including an oil price benchmark of $75 per barrel for 2025, oil production of 2.06 million barrels a day, as well as an exchange rate of N1400 to the dollar and GDP growth of 4.6 percent.”

“It is expected that for 2025, the Federal Government’s budget estimate, the aggregate expenditure is estimated at N47tn, and this includes a borrowing of N13.8tn, which is 3.87 percent of the estimated GDP.

“The budget size that was approved for presentation to the National Assembly in the MTEF is N47.9tn with new borrowings of N9.22tn to finance the budget deficit in 2025 as well as noting that we need to sustain the commendable market deregulation of petroleum prices and exchange rate, and to compel the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited to lower its oil and gas production cost significantly, and even to consider the need to amend the relevant sections of the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 to address the significant risk to Federation.”

“The figures were only for 2025, even though there are projections for 2026 and 2027 in the document, which have different figures for the oil price benchmark for the two years,” he added.

Bagudu said Thursday’s memorandum sought the council’s endorsement of the MTEF for submission to the National Assembly, a requirement under the Fiscal Responsibility Act 2007.

The MTEF begins with a macroeconomic overview. It notes that despite global economic challenges, the Nigerian economy is on a positive trajectory, showing two consecutive quarters of growth, with a 3.19 percent increase in real terms in the second quarter of 2024, the budget minister explained.

However, he acknowledged the need to combat inflation, strengthen economic resilience, support vulnerable populations, bolster high-employment sectors, improve the business climate, and effectively implement youth and social investment programs.

He revealed that the framework, alongside the FSP, also includes a review of the 2024 budget implementation, highlighting progress in revenue collection and expenditure management, though some targets have fallen short. The report also shows that non-oil revenue streams outperform expectations, Bagudu said.

On the 2024 budget performance, he said, “Actual spending as of August 2024 ending was N16.98tn as against the prorated spending target of N23.37tn at the end.

“Of this amount, N7.41tn was for debt service, and N3.7tn for personnel costs including pension. Further, N3.65tn has been released for capital projects. Most of the delays for capital project release have been earlier legacy issues, in the sense that the new procedure for upload requires a lot of capacity building and delayed uploads.”

N28.75tn was earmarked for the 2024 budget. However, it grew to N35.6tn after amendments by the National Assembly added N6.2tn to the pile.

Responding to queries from journalists, the budget minister said the MTEF would reach the National Assembly on Monday, November 18.

“We are submitting it, I believe, tomorrow [Friday] or, at the latest, on Monday. The office of Mr President will forward the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper to the National Assembly,” he stated.

The minister also argued that despite the late approval for the MTEF, the FG will maintain the January-December budget implementation cycle.

He affirmed, “We are confident because we have built a respectable relationship with the National Assembly. We have narrowed the areas of misunderstanding. And because of that mutual respect, Mr President is very transparent with the National Assembly leadership. And the National Assembly appreciates that openness.

“He [President] has instructed all his teams to ensure we cooperate with the National Assembly. For instance, the team led by the Coordinating Minister of the Economy has been mandated not only to wait but also to engage the National Assembly and answer all questions at the committee hearings.

“So, I’m confident because of this combination of factors. With this cooperation, I believe we’ll see an expeditious consideration, and immediately we are aware of the approval, we will finalize the budget because the MTEF precedes the budget preparation.”

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