The naira is forecasted to depreciate to N1,993 against the United States dollar by 2028, posing a significant challenge to Nigeria’s pharmaceutical industry, particularly in importing essential medical devices, a new report by BMI, a Fitch Solutions subsidiary, has revealed.

In the report titled “Weak Naira and Structural Challenges to Constrain Nigeria’s Medical Devices Market Growth”, BMI projected that despite an anticipated rebound in the economy, Nigeria’s medical devices sector will face operational and demand challenges in the near term.

The report noted that Nigeria relies on imports for over 95 per cent of its medical devices, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in exchange rates.

“Continued weakness of the naira will increase medical device import costs and erode consumer purchasing power. Similar to other markets in sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria heavily relies on medical device imports, with reliance of over 95 per cent.”

“We expect that the naira will end 2028 at N1,993/$ from N306/$ in 2018. As the naira weakens, the cost of importing medical devices will continually increase, eroding both the health system and patient purchasing power especially to invest in essential medical technologies given underfunding of the public health sector.”

“This would particularly affect high-cost demand for devices such as diagnostics, orthopaedics and dental products. On the export front, a weaker naira will enhance the competitiveness of locally manufactured medical devices, fostering growth in the sector,” the report stated.

While a weaker naira could enhance the competitiveness of locally manufactured medical devices, BMI highlighted persistent barriers to local production.

These include a scarcity of skilled labour, limited access to modern technology, and inadequate infrastructure, which continue to undermine manufacturing efforts despite government incentives.

The administration of President Bola Tinubu has implemented measures aimed at easing these pressures. In June 2024, an executive order was issued to reduce medical service costs by eliminating tariffs, excise duties, and Value Added Tax on specific machinery, equipment, and raw materials, with the goal of lowering local production costs.

However, BMI observed that the medical devices market would continue to face significant challenges in the short term.

The report forecasted that Nigeria’s medical devices market could grow to a value of N171.1bn (£344.7m) by 2028, supported by a large population, an increasing focus on universal health coverage, and the double burden of chronic and communicable diseases.

Nigeria’s economy is expected to recover in 2025, with a growth rate of 3.0 per cent predicted for 2024, compared to 2.9 per cent recorded in 2023.

However, persistent issues such as high inflation, tighter monetary policies, and weak foreign direct investment could weigh on the growth of the medical devices sector.

Further observation showed that the naira traded at N1,681.42 per dollar on Monday, November 11, 2024, reflecting a marginal decline of 0.15 per cent from Friday’s closing rate of N1,678.87, as recorded on November 8, 2024.

FX turnover on the official market dropped significantly by 66.41 per cent, from $1.4bn on Friday to $471.5m on Monday, indicating lower market activity.

During the period under review, the naira reached a high of N1,695 and a low of N1,631.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has ceased importing refined petroleum products and is now sourcing fuel from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other local refineries.

NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, made this announcement on Monday at the ongoing conference of the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists in Lagos, themed ‘Resolving the Nigerian Energy Trilemma: Energy Security, Sustainable Growth and Affordability.’

This development comes amid claims by some petroleum marketers that they would continue to import petroleum products but sell them at a price lower than that of the $20bn Dangote refinery.

In August, President Bola Tinubu stated that the country spent an average of N2tn monthly on fuel imports.

According to Tinubu, the introduction of compressed natural gas (CNG) into the country would save “over N2tn a month used to import PMS and AGO and free up our resources for more investment in healthcare and gas education.”

The President’s statement implies that the country spends approximately N24tn annually on importing petrol and diesel, excluding aviation fuel, kerosene, and gas.

Despite being an oil-producing nation, Nigeria has relied on imported fuels for years due to insufficient local refining capacity.

Speaking at the NAPE Conference, Kyari revealed that the NNPC is no longer importing fuel and is now sourcing only from domestic refineries.

“Today, NNPC does not import any product, we are taking only from domestic refineries,” he stated.

It’s important to recall that NNPC was initially the sole off-taker of Dangote PMS until the Federal Government allowed other marketers to source directly from the refinery.

Kyari dismissed claims that NNPC was sabotaging the Dangote refinery.

Addressing concerns about domestic refining, he said there had been several media reports suggesting that NNPC was hindering local refineries by not supporting them sufficiently.

“The point is very far from it, and I’m going to speak to it straight. We are very proud part-owners of Dangote refinery, no doubt about it. We saw an opportunity that there is a clear market for at least 300,000 barrels of our production; we know that as time moves on, people will start struggling to find markets for their production.

“It will happen, it’s already happening. Oil is found, as you know, in many unexpected locations across the world and people have choices. Therefore, we saw an opportunity to log supply to the domestic refinery, not just Dangote but any other refinery that operates in the country, so it was a very informed business decision.

“Therefore, from day one, we knew that it is to our benefit to supply crude oil to the domestic refinery, so we don’t need to be persuaded; we don’t need anyone to talk to us, there is no need for any pressure from the streets for us to do this. We are already doing this,” he clarified.

On the topic of Nigeria needing to domesticate its oil, Kyari noted that Nigerian crude is “Lamborghini crude,” meaning the products derived from it would be expensive.

He argued that the issue of high-quality fuel is relative, as many refineries avoid Nigerian crude due to its price.

Kyari shared that some global traders buy Nigerian crude and blend it with lower-quality fuels to reduce costs.

“We should never forget that Nigerian crude is ‘Lamborghini crude.’ If we choose that every product that we have in this country must come from domestic production, then we must deal with pricing. Otherwise, out there in the global market, everybody buys Nigerian crude and blends it with dirtier crude to process. A lot of you will confirm this. So, no one takes Nigerian crude except one or two refineries that I know. Straight processing of Nigerian crude, nobody does this because you do have a gap in value if you do this.

“Therefore, as a country, and I believe this strongly also, that we must process all the crude that we produce in the country to the optimum. You can do intermediate products and sell to the market, you are still adding value. You don’t have to sell gasoline that is coming from Nigerian production.

“You can do something different so you can process it domestically, but it’s going to be high quality. As we all know and it’s very clear in the media that we are selling high-quality products, that’s very true but you need not do this. You are driving a Keke-Napep and you want Lamborghini fuel, you do not need it. So, the quality issue is a relative thing, it’s by geography, by location, and we will do everything possible to make sure that we domesticate this.

“Today, NNPC does not import any product, we are taking only from domestic refineries. But I also know that we are working jointly with the government to make sure that we manage the issue around prices if we have to source all our supply from the domestic market. It will be an issue and we are already resolving it. I can confirm that substantial work has been done and this will no longer be an issue.”

The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) has secured an agreement with Dangote Petroleum Refinery to lift products directly.

This, according to the association, will ensure the availability of petroleum to Nigerians at a cheaper rate.

IPMAN’s National President, Abubakar Garima, made this announcement at a press briefing on Monday in Abuja, following a meeting of the National Working Committee of the association.

He explained that the Dangote refinery had agreed to allow IPMAN to lift PMS, AGO, and DPK directly for onward supply to IPMAN depots and retail outlets. This new arrangement with the Dangote refinery will ensure a steady and ceaseless supply of PMS products across Nigeria at an affordable rate.

He said, “Following our recent meeting with Alhaji Aliko Dangote and members of his top management staff in Lagos, we are happy to state the following; Dangote Refinery has obliged IPMAN to lift PMS, AGO, and DPK directly for onward supply to IPMAN depots and retail outlets. That this new arrangement with the Dangote refinery will ensure a steady and ceaseless supply of PMS products all over Nigeria, at an affordable rate for Nigerians also.”

On October 29, the founder of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, stated that the refinery held over 500 million litres of petrol, but added that oil marketers were not purchasing his product.

In response, IPMAN said its members had been unable to load petrol from the Dangote refinery for days. Garima noted that the association had paid N40bn to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited but still could not source the product. However, the refinery said it had not received any payment from IPMAN for refined petroleum products.

Speaking further at the briefing, Garima urged IPMAN members to support Dangote Refinery, highlighting the backward integration benefits and the positive impacts on Nigeria’s foreign exchange market.

Regarding pricing, Garima expressed confidence that negotiations with Dangote would result in lower rates.

“All IPMAN members should fully support the Dangote refinery, as it’s the ideal thing to do considering the monumental benefits of backward integration and the medium to long-term impact it will have on the foreign exchange markets in Nigeria.

“IPMAN members nationwide should rely on the Dangote refinery and Nigerian refineries for their white products, as this will translate into ensuring more job opportunities in Nigeria, as well as signify total support for President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda,” he added.

Energy expert Kelvin Emmanuel commented that the new agreement would eliminate financing and margin costs incurred by the NNPCL.

He said, “What is cheery about this news is that NNPC’s letter of credit as financing cost ($28 per metric tonne) that is passed to IPMAN — controlling 30,000 retail stations and their margin ($26.48 per metric tonne) will be removed.”

The IPMAN president also mentioned that the association is preparing for a smooth transition to nationwide CNG refill stations, as it is currently in negotiations with the presidential CNG initiative.

“On CNG, I would also like to call on all our members at IPMAN to begin to put all types of machinery in place for a successful transition of the Federal Government’s plans to initiate CNG refill stations in all our outlets. Truly, there is no doubt that CNG has the potential to rejuvenate our economy for a better life for Nigerians, and IPMAN is ready to give her all to support the CNG initiative.

“IPMAN is also calling for a partnership with the Federal Government of Nigeria to hasten the quick success of the CNG initiative for Nigeria. We believe that for the CNG initiative to succeed, there must be a credible partnership between IPMAN and the PCNGI, without which Nigerians would not have ready and near access to CNG outlets.”

This partnership between Dangote and IPMAN is expected to increase efficiency, affordability, and economic growth for Nigeria’s petroleum industry. This move is expected to eliminate middlemen, reduce costs, and ensure a steady supply.

Earlier this year, the Dangote Refinery announced that it would supply fuel to about 150,000 retail outlets operated by oil marketers.

In his remarks, the chairman of the Board of Trustees of the association, Aminu Abdukadir, stated that IPMAN must remain committed to providing the retail stations and funds necessary to ensure that products are delivered to consumers.

“The business of making money without doing anything is over with the deregulation of the sector. For IPMAN to survive, it must provide the filling stations, the money, and the trucks, to provide this commodity to motorists,” he said.

Meanwhile, the Executive Secretary of the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria, Clement Isong, explained that the final landing price is determined by several key factors, including the exchange rate, logistics efficiency, and cost negotiating power based on volume purchased.

Isong said, “If you read our bulletin, there is not one landing price for the whole country. What we are saying is to give an idea of the landing price—if you land 38,000 metric tonnes into ASBM in Apapa, this is the landing price. That’s what we are saying. If you land 100,000 MT or 80,000 MT into Pinnacle, the landing price will be lower. But there are only two places where the landing price will be lower due to economies of scale. If you land in the majority of the country, the depots and facilities take less. So, if you land it into another place in Lagos, the landing price will be higher. It won’t be N971 per litre. It can be as close to N1,000.

“So, the landing price is a function of how much you got your exchange rate, logistics, and your negotiating power based on the volume bought. Some marketers are landing below N917. But the vast majority of people who don’t enjoy the benefits of economies of scale will land at significantly above that. What this teaches is that it is a free and open market. It’s how you buy that you sell. There is no one price. It is a function of the draft of the vessels that you land the product. It’s a function of how much product was bought. It’s a function of what rate of exchange was used to buy products. The exchange rate that we have used is the central bank rate. So, if you have the central bank rate, then you will not land at that price, but if you go to the black market, the price will be higher.

“The law says that we can only keep 30 days of stock in our depots. So, the fact that the spot market has gone up means nothing because you are selling based on the price of the average cost in your tank. The fact that the price has gone down to N971, it doesn’t matter because we are selling based on the average cost in your tank. How much did you buy and the average cost of everything in the tank? It’s a market price. And the market price is a range. It moves, depending on how efficient you are. And I think for us, the most important thing is the exchange rate.”