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Nigeria May Slide Into Another Recession Soon — Finance Minister

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Zainab Ahmed, minister of finance, says unless Nigeria achieves a very strong third quarter 2020 economic performance, the country may slide into recession.

Ahmed disclosed this at the opening of a five-day interactive session on the 2021-2023 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP), held on Thursday in Abuja.

The interactive session was organized by the house of representatives committee on finance, chaired by James Faleke, the lawmaker representing Ikeja federal constituency.

Ahmed, who was represented by Clement Agba, the minister of state for finance, said the COVID-19 pandemic had put further pressure on Nigeria’s foreign exchange.

He said the COVID-19 pandemic resulting in the crash of global oil prices among other economic factors had adversely affected the nation’s economy, with the Gross Domestic Product growth for Q2 most likely to be negative.

The World Bank had in July warned that the collapse in oil prices resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic was expected to plunge the Nigerian economy into a severe economic recession, the worst since the 1980s.

The global bank had stated this in its latest Nigeria Development Update.

Agba had read out a written presentation by the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs. Zainab Ahmed, titled ‘Draft 2021-2023 MTEF/FSP: Presentation to the House Finance Committee.’

The minister said the Nigerian economy faced serious challenges in the first half of 2020 with the microeconomic environment significantly disrupted by the pandemic.

The document partly read, “The impact of these developments is about 65 percent decline in projected net 2020 government revenues from the oil and gas sector, with adverse consequences for foreign exchange inflows into the economy.

“Nigeria is exposed to spikes in risk aversion in the global capital markets, which will put further pressure on the foreign exchange market as foreign portfolio investors exit the Nigerian market.

“Nigeria’s Q2 GDP growth is in all likelihood negative, and unless we achieve a very strong Q3 2020 economic performance, the Nigerian economy is likely to lapse into the second recession in four years, with significant adverse consequences.

“In response to the developments affecting the supply of foreign exchange to the economy, the Central Bank of Nigeria adjusted the official exchange rate to N360/USD1, and more recently to N379/USD.

“The disruptions in global trade and logistics would negatively affect Customs duty collections in 2020.

“The COVID-19 containment measures, though necessary, have inhibited domestic economic activities, with a consequential negative impact on taxation and other government revenues.

“Consequently, the projections for Customs duty, stamp duty, Value Added Tax, and Company Income Tax revenues were recently reviewed downwards in the revised 2020 budget.

“Customs revenue has generally performed close to target over the last few years, exceeding the target in 2019.”

While noting that there had been some improvement in Company Income Tax and VAT remittances, the minister said the Federal Government expected significant improvements in VAT collections with the new VAT rate of 7.5 percent.

The minister said, “Over the past five years, actual revenue performance averaged 61.4 percent.

“Some of our reforms are yielding positive results, with significant improvements between 2018 and 2019. We believe we can do more to improve revenues, especially remittances from GOEs, possibly up to N1tn per annum.”

Speaking on the key assumptions of the MTEF/FSP, the minister, among others, said, “Inflation, however, is expected to remain above single-digit over the medium term, given the structural issues impacting on the cost of doing business, including the high cost of distribution.”

On the management of the fiscal crisis, the minister noted that fiscal measures were being instituted to improve government revenue and entrench a regime of prudence, with emphasis on achieving value for money.

“The goal of fiscal interventions will be to keep the economy active through carefully calibrated regulatory/policy measures designed to boost domestic value addition, de-risk the enterprise environment, attract external investment and sources of funding, etc.,” the minister stated.

The minister noted that the draft 2021-2023 MTEF/FSP was prepared against the backdrop of a global recession and heightened global economic uncertainty.

The document further read, “The medium-term outlook for Nigeria suggests that fiscal risks are somewhat elevated, largely due to COVID-19 related disruptions, which have exacerbated structural weaknesses in the economy.

“Nigeria faces significant medium-term fiscal challenges, especially with respect to its revenues, which, if not addressed, could snowball into a debt sustainability crisis.”

Already, Nigerians are becoming agitated by the rising debt profile of the country, with the National Assembly raising concerns over external loan agreements between Nigeria and global bodies, especially the China Export-Import Bank.

BIG STORY

US Court Sends British-Nigerian To Seven Years In Jail Over $5m Cyber Fraud

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Oludayo Adeagbo, a British-Nigerian, has been sentenced to seven years in prison for his role in a multimillion-dollar business email compromise (BEC) scheme.

According to the US Department of Justice, Adeagbo, who also goes by John Edwards and John Dayo, conspired with others to steal over $3 million from various entities in Texas, including local government bodies, construction companies, and a Houston-area college.

Adeagbo and his co-conspirators also defrauded a North Carolina university of more than $1.9 million.

The case began in August 2022 when Adeagbo and two other Nigerian citizens, Donald Echeazu, 42, and Olabanji Egbinola, 44, were extradited from the United Kingdom (UK), where they had been residing, to face charges of conspiracy, wire fraud, and money laundering.

The US Department of Justice stated that the offences were committed in North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia.

On April 8, Adeagbo pleaded guilty in two cases against him in North Carolina and Texas for participating in a business email compromise scheme, which is also referred to as a “cyber-enabled financial fraud” scheme.

A business email compromise scheme can be initiated by scammers creating fake accounts that mimic companies a business regularly deals with.

Court records revealed that Adeagbo and his co-conspirators gathered information about significant construction projects across the United States, including a multi-million-dollar project at a university in North Carolina.

“To execute the scheme, Adeagbo, Echeazu, and others registered a domain name similar to that of the legitimate construction company in charge of the university’s project and created an email address that closely resembled that of an employee of the construction company,” the Department of Justice said.

“Using the fake email address, the fraudsters deceived and directed the university to wire a payment of more than $1.9 million to a bank account controlled by an individual working under the direction of Adeagbo and his co-conspirators.”

Adeagbo and his co-conspirators employed the same tactics in Texas, targeting local government entities and universities by impersonating construction companies. They stole over $3 million from the scheme, bringing their total haul to $5 million.

Adeagbo has been ordered to pay $942,655.03 in restitution and will serve seven years in prison.

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BIG STORY

Nigerian-American Oye Owolewa Re-Elected To US Congress

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Oye Owolewa, a Nigerian-American Democrat, has been re-elected as the shadow representative for the District of Columbia (DC).

Owolewa, a PhD graduate from Northeastern University in Boston, made history in November 2020 when he became the first Nigerian-American elected to Congress.

He secured 164,026 votes, or 82.84 percent of the total votes cast in DC.

His role, while not officially recognized by the US government as a full member of Congress, is to advocate for the district’s interests, particularly its bid for statehood.

On Thursday, Owolewa expressed his gratitude to DC voters via a post on X, thanking them for their continued support.

“Thank you DC again for giving me chance to serve. I also want to thank the organizations that have supported, partnered with and endorsed me,” he wrote.

While shadow representatives like Owolewa do not have voting power in the US House of Representatives, they play a key role in pushing for recognition and state-level advocacy for DC residents, who are otherwise disenfranchised at the federal level.

Owolewa has consistently championed the cause of DC statehood, which has become a central focus of his work.

The re-election took place on November 5, the same day as the US presidential election.

In that election, former President Donald Trump defeated Vice-President Kamala Harris, securing over 270 electoral votes to win a second term.

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BIG STORY

Joe Biden Urges Americans To Accept Trump’s Victory, Promises Peaceful Transition

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United States President Joe Biden has urged Americans to accept the victory of Republican Party candidate Donald Trump in the presidential election.

On November 6, Trump won the presidential election after surpassing the magic number of 270 electoral college votes.

Trump defeated Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party, who received 219 electoral college votes.

Harris has congratulated Trump on his electoral victory.

During a speech on Thursday at the White House Rose Garden, Biden said, “We accept the choice the country made.”

“I know for some people, it’s time for victory to state the obvious. For others, it’s a time of loss,” the US president said.

“Campaigns are contests of competing visions. The country chooses one or the other.

“I’ve said many times, you can’t love your country only when you win. You can’t love your neighbour only when you agree.

“I will do my duty as president. I’ll fulfil my oath and honour the Constitution. On January 20, we will have a peaceful transfer of power here in America.

“Remember, defeat does not mean we are defeated. We lost this battle. The America of your dream is calling for you to get back up.

“The America experiment endures. We are going to be okay, but we need to stay engaged. We need to keep going. Above all, we need to keep the faith.”

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