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Nigeria May Slide Into Another Recession Soon — Finance Minister

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Zainab Ahmed, minister of finance, says unless Nigeria achieves a very strong third quarter 2020 economic performance, the country may slide into recession.

Ahmed disclosed this at the opening of a five-day interactive session on the 2021-2023 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP), held on Thursday in Abuja.

The interactive session was organized by the house of representatives committee on finance, chaired by James Faleke, the lawmaker representing Ikeja federal constituency.

Ahmed, who was represented by Clement Agba, the minister of state for finance, said the COVID-19 pandemic had put further pressure on Nigeria’s foreign exchange.

He said the COVID-19 pandemic resulting in the crash of global oil prices among other economic factors had adversely affected the nation’s economy, with the Gross Domestic Product growth for Q2 most likely to be negative.

The World Bank had in July warned that the collapse in oil prices resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic was expected to plunge the Nigerian economy into a severe economic recession, the worst since the 1980s.

The global bank had stated this in its latest Nigeria Development Update.

Agba had read out a written presentation by the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs. Zainab Ahmed, titled ‘Draft 2021-2023 MTEF/FSP: Presentation to the House Finance Committee.’

The minister said the Nigerian economy faced serious challenges in the first half of 2020 with the microeconomic environment significantly disrupted by the pandemic.

The document partly read, “The impact of these developments is about 65 percent decline in projected net 2020 government revenues from the oil and gas sector, with adverse consequences for foreign exchange inflows into the economy.

“Nigeria is exposed to spikes in risk aversion in the global capital markets, which will put further pressure on the foreign exchange market as foreign portfolio investors exit the Nigerian market.

“Nigeria’s Q2 GDP growth is in all likelihood negative, and unless we achieve a very strong Q3 2020 economic performance, the Nigerian economy is likely to lapse into the second recession in four years, with significant adverse consequences.

“In response to the developments affecting the supply of foreign exchange to the economy, the Central Bank of Nigeria adjusted the official exchange rate to N360/USD1, and more recently to N379/USD.

“The disruptions in global trade and logistics would negatively affect Customs duty collections in 2020.

“The COVID-19 containment measures, though necessary, have inhibited domestic economic activities, with a consequential negative impact on taxation and other government revenues.

“Consequently, the projections for Customs duty, stamp duty, Value Added Tax, and Company Income Tax revenues were recently reviewed downwards in the revised 2020 budget.

“Customs revenue has generally performed close to target over the last few years, exceeding the target in 2019.”

While noting that there had been some improvement in Company Income Tax and VAT remittances, the minister said the Federal Government expected significant improvements in VAT collections with the new VAT rate of 7.5 percent.

The minister said, “Over the past five years, actual revenue performance averaged 61.4 percent.

“Some of our reforms are yielding positive results, with significant improvements between 2018 and 2019. We believe we can do more to improve revenues, especially remittances from GOEs, possibly up to N1tn per annum.”

Speaking on the key assumptions of the MTEF/FSP, the minister, among others, said, “Inflation, however, is expected to remain above single-digit over the medium term, given the structural issues impacting on the cost of doing business, including the high cost of distribution.”

On the management of the fiscal crisis, the minister noted that fiscal measures were being instituted to improve government revenue and entrench a regime of prudence, with emphasis on achieving value for money.

“The goal of fiscal interventions will be to keep the economy active through carefully calibrated regulatory/policy measures designed to boost domestic value addition, de-risk the enterprise environment, attract external investment and sources of funding, etc.,” the minister stated.

The minister noted that the draft 2021-2023 MTEF/FSP was prepared against the backdrop of a global recession and heightened global economic uncertainty.

The document further read, “The medium-term outlook for Nigeria suggests that fiscal risks are somewhat elevated, largely due to COVID-19 related disruptions, which have exacerbated structural weaknesses in the economy.

“Nigeria faces significant medium-term fiscal challenges, especially with respect to its revenues, which, if not addressed, could snowball into a debt sustainability crisis.”

Already, Nigerians are becoming agitated by the rising debt profile of the country, with the National Assembly raising concerns over external loan agreements between Nigeria and global bodies, especially the China Export-Import Bank.

BIG STORY

JUST IN: Defence Headquarters Finally Confirms Coup Attempt Against Tinubu, Indicted Officers To Face Military Trial

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The Defence Headquarters on Monday said investigations into alleged misconduct by some officers revealed claims of a plot to overthrow the government.

In October 2025, the DHQ announced the arrest of 16 officers over acts of indiscipline and breaches of service regulations.

It was reported on October 18 that the officers — ranging in rank from Captain to Brigadier General — were arrested by the Defence Intelligence Agency for allegedly holding secret meetings to topple the government.

The platform also linked the cancellation of the October 1 Independence Day parade to the alleged plot.

Reacting at the time, the former Director of Defence Information, Brigadier General Tukur Gusau, said the publication was intended to create tension and distrust among Nigerians, adding that the matter was strictly a disciplinary issue handled internally.

“The ongoing investigation involving the sixteen officers is a routine internal process aimed at ensuring discipline and professionalism are maintained within the ranks. An investigative panel has been duly constituted, and its findings will be made public,” the statement said.

Providing an update on Monday, the new Director of Defence Information, Major General Samaila Uba, said a comprehensive investigation had been conducted in line with established military procedures.

He said the findings showed that some of the officers had cases to answer over allegations of plotting to overthrow the government and that the investigation report has now been forwarded to the appropriate superior authority.

The statement partly read, “The Defence Headquarters issued a press statement in October 2025 regarding the arrest of sixteen officers over acts of indiscipline and breaches of service regulations.

“The Armed Forces of Nigeria wishes to inform the general public that investigations into the matter have been concluded and the report forwarded to the appropriate superior authority in line with extant regulations.

“The comprehensive investigation process, conducted in accordance with established military procedures, has carefully examined all circumstances surrounding the conduct of the affected personnel.

“The findings have identified several officers with allegations of plotting to overthrow the government, which is inconsistent with the ethics, values and professional standards required of members of the AFN.”

Uba said those indicted would be formally arraigned before relevant military judicial panels to face trial in line with the Armed Forces Act and other applicable service regulations.

He stressed that the process would ensure accountability while upholding fairness and due process.

He emphasized that the measures being taken were purely disciplinary and formed part of institutional mechanisms aimed at preserving order, discipline, and operational effectiveness within the ranks.

Uba added, “Accordingly, those with cases to answer will be formally arraigned before appropriate military judicial panels to face trial in accordance with the Armed Forces Act and other applicable service regulations. This ensures accountability while upholding the principles of fairness and due process.

“The AFN reiterates that measures being taken are purely disciplinary and part of ongoing institutional mechanisms to preserve order, discipline, and operational effectiveness within the ranks.

“The Armed Forces remain resolute in maintaining the highest standards of professionalism, loyalty, and respect for constitutional authority.”

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BIG STORY

No Party Or Person Can Defeat President Tinubu In 2027, Atiku’s Son Declares

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Abba Atiku, son of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, has joined the All Progressives Congress and declared that no political party can defeat President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election.

Abba spoke in Yola on Monday after picking his APC membership registration card at Gwadabawa Ward in Yola North Local Government Area of Adamawa State.

He said he joined the party to contribute to what he described as the best economic and human reforms under the present administration.

“I want to make it very clear that nobody or any political party can stop President Bola Tinubu from returning to Aso Rock come 2027. Nigerians have seen his good work; he is not a tribalist, he don’t make appointments based on religion or region, but his decisions are purely on merit,” he said.

Abba said he was motivated to join the APC due to what he described as massive human and infrastructural development across the country under President Tinubu’s leadership.

“The president needs your support to continue with the good work. We should mobilise more people and beyond party affiliations to support our president,” he said.

The APC Zonal Vice Chairman, Adamawa Central, Alhaji Isa Bagalti, who handed over the membership card to Abba, said his defection had ended speculation that the APC could lose the 2027 election.

“It is now clear to people that there is no party in Nigeria or presidential candidate that can face our president at the poll come 2027,” he said.

Also speaking, a top APC chieftain in Adamawa State, Alhaji Jamil Yusuf, said President Tinubu has no rival ahead of the next presidential election.

He described other aspirants as wishful thinkers, saying they lacked the credentials to challenge the president.

“Majority of those saying that they are going to contest for the office of president see politics as a trade fair venue, where people sell and buy. I advise such people to invest their money in profitable ventures, because the office of the president is no longer for the highest bidder, but for competent people like President Tinubu,” he said.

Adamu Atiku, the first son of the former vice president, is a top member of the Peoples Democratic Party and a serving Commissioner for Works and Energy Development under Governor Ahmadu Fintiri’s administration.

Atiku Abubakar is a presidential aspirant on the platform of the African Democratic Congress, without any of his sons currently in the party with him.

 

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BIG STORY

BREAKING: Soludo Closes Onitsha Market For One Week Over Sit-At-Home Defiance

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Anambra State Governor, Professor Chukwuma Soludo, has ordered the closure of the Onitsha Main Market for one week following traders’ failure to comply with the state government’s directive to disregard the Monday sit-at-home order.

The governor gave the directive on Monday during an on-site visit to the market, along with some of his aides and other government officials.

Soludo warned that the closure could be extended if traders fail to comply with the directive, adding that security agencies have sealed the market to enforce the order.

The governor described the development as the latest—and perhaps most drastic—salvo in a protracted struggle over control of economic life in the South-East on Monday.

Soludo said that despite repeated assurances of enhanced security and appeals to reclaim public spaces, many traders at the iconic market once again chose to keep their stalls locked.

According to him, their absence amounted to a quiet rebellion that nonetheless spoke volumes about the lingering climate of fear.

Soludo said, “The government cannot stand by while a few individuals willfully undermine public safety and disregard official directives meant to restore normalcy. This is plain economic sabotage.

“We are not going to allow this. The closure is a protective measure for law-abiding citizens.”

He, however, issued a stern warning that if the market fails to reopen after the one-week shutdown, it will be sealed for one month.

“You either decide that you are going to trade here or you go elsewhere. I am very serious about this,” the governor added.

The scene at the market on Monday was marked by tense enforcement, as a joint task force comprising police, army, and other security agencies was seen securing the perimeter.

As the gates remain locked this week, the standoff in Onitsha highlights the broader struggle to abolish the Monday sit-at-home.

When the market is scheduled to reopen next Monday, attention will be on the traders—whether they will return to their stalls following the state’s show of force, or whether empty aisles will deliver a different verdict.

The outcome may determine not just the fate of the market, but the rhythm of economic life in Anambra State on Mondays.

The state government had earlier directed traders and businesses to continue normal activities on Mondays as part of efforts to restore economic stability and end disruptions caused by recurring sit-at-home observances.

Meanwhile, there were reports on Saturday that the state government would begin pro-rata salary payments for workers across the state as part of efforts to end the Monday sit-at-home.

The State Commissioner for Information, Law Mefor, disclosed this to journalists in Awka, noting that effective February 2026, civil servants’ salaries would be paid according to attendance on Mondays.

Mefor said the decision was reached during the end-of-tenure retreat of the Anambra State Executive Council held in Awka, which reviewed the administration’s activities over its concluding four-year tenure and outlined priorities for the new term beginning on March 17, 2026.

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