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Nigeria Is Broke, Finance Minister Laments, As Public Debt Hits N41.6trn

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Nigeria’s fiscal position worsened as the cost of debt servicing surpassed the government’s revenue in the first quarter of 2022.

It was earlier reported that the 2022 fiscal performance report for January through April shows that Nigeria’s total revenue stood at N1.63 trillion while debt servicing stood at N1.94 trillion, showing a deficit of over N300 billion.

Nigeria’s Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Zainab Ahmed, on Thursday warned that urgent action is needed to address the nation’s revenue challenge and expenditure efficiency at both the national and sub-national levels.

The report showed that gross oil and gas federation revenue for the first four months of the year was projected at N3.12 trillion but as at April 30, only N1.23 trillion was realised, representing a mere 39% performance.

Despite higher oil prices, the report showed that oil revenue underperformed due to significant oil production shortfalls such as shut-ins resulting from pipeline vandalism and crude oil theft as well as high petrol subsidy cost due to higher landing costs of imported products.

However, non-oil taxes trailed targets marginally, with average performance of 92.6%.

“Revenue performance is expected to improve in the second half of 2022 as a result of concerted efforts to address the oil theft and pipeline vandalism, the report said. It added that there is also seasonality to some of the non-oil taxes, which means that the nation expects to collect significantly more in the second half of the year.

“The improved revenue collection should also moderate the Debt Service to Revenue ratio, which is currently above our target level,” the report said.

The expectation of improved revenue collection should also moderate the debt service to revenue ratio, which is currently above the nation’s target level.

In the first quarter of 2020, Nigeria’s debt service as a percentage of revenue rose to 99%, according to the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy (MTEF/FSP) report released by the Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget, and National Planning.

The data showed that in Q1 2020, Nigeria incurred a total sum of N943.12 billion in debt service while the Nigerian government retained revenue at N950.56 billion. In effect, Nigeria’s debt service to revenue was estimated to be 99% during the period.

On Thursday, the new report showed that the Nigerian government’s share of oil revenues in Q1 2022 was N285.38 billion (representing 39 percent performance), while non-oil tax revenues totalled N632.56 billion, representing 84 percent. In essence, the government generated N401.8 billion from company income tax (CIT) and value-added tax (VAT) as CIT and VAT collections were N298.83 billion and N102.97 billion, respectively, representing 99 percent and 98 percent of their respective targets.

Customs collections (made up of import duties, excise and fees, as well as federation account special levies) trailed target by N76.77 billion (25.42 percent) while the other revenues amounted to N664.64 billion, of which independent revenue was N394.09 billion.

The report noted that for Nigeria, “fiscal risks are somewhat elevated”, following weaker-than-expected domestic economic performance and structural issues in the domestic economy. It warned that revenue generation remains the major fiscal constraint of the nation and the systemic resource mobilization problem has been compounded by recent economic recessions.

The underlying factors also include the Russia and Ukraine war, which the report said has assumed a new and worrisome dimension with severe implications on food and energy prices. It listed the resurgence of COVID -19 in some major economies, which has led to slowdown in economic activities in those countries; as well as renewed elevated inflation in most economies, prompting monetary tightening in these economies with the inherent negative impact on capital inflow to emerging markets economies.

Also identified as a contributing factor is the challenging domestic macroeconomic and business environment and the negative impact of insecurity on the domestic economy.

“Efforts will however focus on improving tax administration and collection efficiency,” the report said.

“Crude oil production challenges and PMS subsidy deductions by NNPC constitute significant threat to the achievement of our revenue growth targets, as seen in the 2022 Performance up to April.

“Bold, decisive and urgent action is urgently required to address revenue underperformance and expenditure efficiency at national & sub-national levels.”

Nigeria’s public debt hits N41.6trn
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s total public debt stock, comprising the debt obligations of the federal government, states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) rose from N39.56 trillion in December 2021 to N41.60 trillion ($100.07 billion) in the first three months of 2022 (January to March), the Debt Management Office (DMO) revealed yesterday.

In addition, the domestic debt service obligations of the federal government stood at N668,685, 710,112.98 in the first three months of 2022.

According to the DMO, with the increase in the country’s debt profile, its total public debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) now stands at 23.27 per cent, as against 22.43 per cent December 31, 2021.

The DMO, in a statement posted on its website explained: “The amount represented the domestic and external debt stocks of the Federal Government of Nigeria, the 36 state governments and the Federal Capital Territory. The comparative figures for December 31, 2021, were N39.56 trillion or $95.78 billion.”

The total public debt stock, the agency said, included new domestic borrowing by the FGN to partly finance the deficit in the 2022 Appropriation Act, the $1.25 billion Eurobond issued in March 2022 and disbursements by multilateral and bilateral lenders.

According to data posted by the DMO, the federal government’s total domestic debt as at March 31, 2022, stood at N20.144 trillion (N20,144,027,724,703).

In the same vein, the federal government’s domestic debt service of N668,685 billion for the review period was for Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs), Federal Government Bonds, FGN Savings Bond, and FGN Sukuk Rentals.

A breakdown of the debt service obligations showed that N188,364,772,069.17 was paid out in January, N103,883,183,876.20 in February and N376,437,754,167.61 in March.

Federal government bonds accounted for the lion share of N630,535,774,886.21 followed by NTBs with N29,642,197,193.31 and FGN Sukuk Rentals N8,167, 315,066.60. Similarly, FGN Savings Bond took the rear with N340,422,964.8 million. Total debt service for NTBs in January was N3,220,890,038.78, while February and March were N7,23, 906,633.90 and N19, 189,400,520.63.

For Federal Government Bonds, a total debt service of N185,026,886,879.94 was paid in

January, N96,527,951,065.07 in February, and N348,980,936,941.20 in March. Also, the DMO data showed that FGN Savings Bond gulped debt service of N116,995,150.45 in January, N123, 326,177.23 in February and N100,101, 637.18.

There was no debt service pay out for FGN Sukuk Rentals in January and February, but in March, a total of N8,167, 315,066.60 was paid.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s external debt stock as at March 31, 2022 stood at $39,969.19 billion.

This comprised debts for multilateral and bilateral creditors as well as commercial loans.

Nigeria owes the largest chunk of $18,957.22 billion to multilateral creditors, including the World Bank Group, International Monetary Fund (IMF), African Development Bank, European Development Fund Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa, Islamic Development Bank, and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).

Out of the $18,957.22 billion owed multilateral agencies, $12,229.43 billion and $486.10 million respectively to the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD)- two members of the World Bank Group.

It is also indebted to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the tune of $3,395.08 billion and $4 495.87 billion to bilateral creditors, including China Exim Bank $3,667.65 billion), Agency Francaise Development of France ($567.89 million) and KfW of Germany ($164.04 million), among others.

Nigeria’s second external debt obligation were commercial loans, standing in excess of $15.918 billion. This included Eurobonds and Diaspora Bond.

BIG STORY

EFCC Allocates N18bn For Allowances, N5bn For Travels In Proposed 2025 Budget

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The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has announced plans to allocate N18 billion for allowances in 2025.

This figure is part of the proposed 2025 budget currently under consideration and awaiting approval by the national assembly.

As per the appropriation bill, the EFCC’s total budget for 2025 stands at approximately N62.2 billion.

This budget includes personnel costs (N38.6 billion), overheads (N20.9 billion), and capital expenditure (N2.2 billion).

Within the allowance budget, N1.7 billion is designated for “non-regular allowances,” while “regular allowances” are set at N16.7 billion.

Other proposed expenditures for the EFCC include welfare packages (N1.4 billion), fuel and lubricants (N2 billion), financial charges (N1.2 billion), construction and provision of office buildings (N1.1 billion), and maintenance services (N2.1 billion).

The EFCC also plans to allocate N4.9 billion for “local travel and transport,” with “international travel and transport” expected to cost N1.7 billion.

The proposed budget includes N800 million for the purchase of fixed assets.

On Wednesday, President Bola Tinubu unveiled the N49.7 trillion 2025 “Budget of Restoration: Securing Peace and Rebuilding Prosperity.”

In his address to the national assembly, Tinubu stated that it was time “we rewrite Nigeria’s narrative together.”

The primary focus of next year’s budget will be the defence, infrastructure, health, and education sectors.

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BIG STORY

BREAKING: Court Grants Dele Farotimi N30m Bail In Defamation Case

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A magistrate court in Ado-Ekiti has granted N30 million bail to Dele Farotimi, the human rights activist.

Abayomi Adeosun, the magistrate, made the ruling on Farotimi’s bail application on Friday.

The bail conditions include two sureties, who must be responsible citizens in society, with the defendant required to leave his international passport with the court. Farotimi is also prohibited from granting media interviews during the pendency of the case.

The police had accused Farotimi of “criminally defaming” Afe Babalola, a senior advocate of Nigeria (SAN), in a book titled: ‘Nigeria and its Criminal Justice System’.

 

More to come…

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BIG STORY

Oil Marketers Project N950 Per Litre As Dangote Slashes Petrol Price

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Oil marketers operating under the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria have forecast a reduction in the retail price of Premium Motor Spirit, commonly known as “petrol,” to N950 per litre in Lagos State.

It also indicated that customers in the Federal Capital Territory may pay N990 per litre.

The IPMAN National Publicity Officer, Chief Chinedu Ukadike, shared this insight during an interview with our correspondent, emphasizing that the product will now be priced below a thousand naira.

He stated, “Once there is a price reduction, it will trickle down. There will be a change to the pump price. It will be less than N1,000. But the difference will be determined by location. It may be N950 in Lagos and possibly N990 in Abuja. Logistics will play a key role. Remember that the price of “diesel” hasn’t reduced and that is what we put in our tankers.”

This anticipated price decrease follows the decision by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery to lower its ex-depot price to N899.50 per litre.

The new price is the second reduction within a month and a decrease of N71 or seven.per cent from the previously adjusted price of N970 per litre on November 24.

Earlier on Thursday, a statement by the Group Chief Branding and Communications Officer of Dangote Group, Anthony Chiejina, announced the introduction of a special petrol price offer to benefit Nigerians.

In addition to the holiday discount, it said customers are now allowed to purchase an additional litre of fuel on credit for every litre bought on a cash basis.

The refinery offered a price of N899.5 (cash payment) for two million litres and a matching two million litres on a Bank Guarantee valid for 15 days (Access, Zenith & First Bank) from the N970 per litre announced by the company last month.

It also proposed an N895 (cash payment) for 10 million litres and a matching 10 million litres on a BG valid for 15 days (Access, Zenith & First Bank).

It said the reduction is to provide much-needed relief for Nigerians ahead of the holiday season.

Chiejina said, “To alleviate transport costs during this holiday season, Dangote Refinery is offering a holiday discount on PMS. From today, our petrol will be available at N899.50 per litre at our truck loading gantry or SPM. Furthermore, for every litre purchased on a cash basis, consumers will have the opportunity to buy another litre on credit, backed by a bank guarantee from Access Bank, First Bank, or Zenith Bank.”

The refinery also expressed its gratitude to Nigerians for their continued support as the country enters the festive season.

Chiejina further emphasised the refinery’s commitment to ensuring Nigerians have access to premium quality petroleum products that are competitively priced, as well as environmentally and engine friendly.

He highlighted that the refinery’s operations mark the end of Nigeria being a dumping ground for substandard and ‘blended’ imported products, which have posed significant risks to human health, machinery, and the environment.

He noted, “The Dangote Refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, is the largest single-train refinery in the world. It is fully capable of meeting 100 per cent of Nigeria’s refined petroleum product requirements, with a surplus available for export.”

Last week, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria sought a reduction in the price of petrol from the refinery.

The group urged the Dangote refinery to consider reducing its ex-depot price from N970 per litre since the estimated cost of landing petrol on Nigeria’s shores has dropped to N900.28 per litre.

Reacting to the new price change, the IPMAN Chairman, Abubakar Maigandi, said the gesture was expected and will reduce the retail price of petrol once offtaking begins.

Abubakar, in an interview with Arise TV, said, “What Dangote has done is what we have been expecting. My marketers are very happy about the reduction, which they have put at the rate of N899.50 per litre for those who are buying two million litres and those buying above 10 million litres will also have their reduction. This is a welcome development. We are happy because we know that the masses will enjoy the benefits.

“We have been telling Nigerians to exercise patience; we knew the price would drop, and we all are seeing it now little by little. The offer to get one million on credit after purchasing two million is also welcome.”

On the reduction of the retail price, he noted, “Once we start picking up products, we are going to change our price so that the consumer will enjoy the benefit.

“Our major challenge was the cost of products from Dangote, so I assure you that with this, all transportation and economic activities will change, especially because transportation is a major driver, and we hope to resolve it with this new change. Now, there is no need to import products from outside the country.”

Also speaking, the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria applauded the management of Dangote refinery for slashing the ex-depot price of PMS to N899.50 per litre.

According to the National President of PETROAN, Dr Billy Gillis-Harry, “The price reduction will alleviate the suffering of Nigerians and reduce the cost of living and transportation during this festive period.”

Harry commended the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited for ensuring sufficient PMS stocks during the yuletide season. However, he urged NNPCL to revisit its PMS selling rate to foster competition in the downstream sector.

“The reduction in petrol prices by Dangote Refinery has shown that competition can benefit consumers,”

Harry emphasised, “We call on NNPCL to facilitate the privatization of the Port Harcourt Refinery, which will introduce innovative consumer incentives, improve product quality, and enhance service delivery.”

Speaking further in an interview with our correspondent, the PETROAN President stated that its members, empathetic to the suffering of Nigerians, have lowered their prices at retail outlets to nearly N900.

Gillis-Harry said the gesture is intended to demonstrate their leadership in the downstream sector and ensure an adequate supply of petroleum products for Nigerians during the Yuletide season.

He said, “PETROAN members and leadership have reduced their price to almost N900 in several stations even before the Dangote reduction. When we made a strategic agreement with Dangote, even when we hadn’t concluded the whole process. We already know that the PMS and other products will be reviewed and reduced. PETROAN is leading the way to ensure fuel sufficiency and availability. We are making the sacrifice to show our leadership and provide relief for Nigerians.”

Meanwhile, the NNPCL has faltered in its mandate to deliver 385,000 barrels of crude to Dangote Refinery in the month of December, a new report by Argus has stated.

It said the national oil firm only supplied around 202,000 barrels per day in December.

The report further noted that the ramp-up of production at the 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery, likely to occur next year, will affect West African crude trade flows in 2025.

“The refinery remains well below full capacity for now, with estimated deliveries averaging just under 260,000 b/d since March, but Nigerian operator Dangote Group is aiming for 350,000 b/d throughout the first phase of operations.

“When this takes place, and Dangote makes full use of its 385,000 b/d monthly allocation deal with state-owned NNPC, it will affect the amount of Nigerian crude left to be exported to the country’s key outlet – the European market,” it stated.

Although NNPC only supplied around 202,000 b/d in December, the total volume under the deal is equivalent to around a quarter of Nigeria’s crude and condensate monthly exports.

“The deal will eventually bring support to Nigerian crude differentials when European demand is stronger or at least cushion the decline when demand is weaker,” it added.

As Dangote ramps up operations, the refiner could widen its crude slate, which could also affect crude trade flows.

The refinery will take receipt of a 2m barrels cargo of US light sweet WTI bought from Chevron via a tender that closed in November, after a three-month hiatus related to credit issues.

The report noted that Dangote has so far run exclusively on Nigerian crude and WTI, but Nigerian banks eased restrictions on the provision of trade finance to the refiner, which could open the door for possible purchases of non-Nigerian West African crude.

Sources close to the refinery point to Angolan heavy and medium sweet grades as likely to become part of the refinery’s basket intake.

Market participants also pointed out that the recent WTI tender might signal Dangote’s attempt to increase run rates.

 

Credit: The Punch

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