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Inflation Will Push 15 Million Nigerians Into Poverty In Two Years – World Bank

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According to the World Bank, the inflation shock in Nigeria is projected to push about 15 million more Nigerians into poverty between 2020 and 2022.

The Washington-based bank said this in its latest Nigeria Development Update report, titled, ‘The Continuing Urgency of Business Unusual’.

The report read in part, “Overall, the ‘inflation shock’ is estimated to result in about 15 million more Nigerians living in poverty between 2020 and 2022.”

The lending bank stressed the need for reducing the rising rate of inflation, which is pushing millions of Nigerians into poverty.

Although the World Bank says inflation in 2022 is projected to be 15.5 percent, Nigeria’s inflation as of May this year is 17.71 percent, which is higher than the World Bank’s projection.

The lending bank further said that Nigeria has one of the highest inflation rates in the world.

According to the bank, inflationary pressures in the country are driven by certain policy distortions.

The bank said, “Inflationary pressures were compounded by policy distortions, in particular (i) lack flexible foreign exchange management, (ii) trade restrictions, and (iii) conflicting monetary policy goals.” It further disclosed that global supply shocks exacerbated inflationary pressures and increased the urgency.

Aside from the policy distortions, the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have contributed to rising inflation.

It was also stated that the financing of the fiscal deficit and trade restrictions by the Central Bank of Nigeria contributes to fuelling inflationary pressures, and Nigeria will have one of the highest inflation rates in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2022.

The bank also said that poverty might be becoming entrenched in certain Nigerian households, particularly in rural areas in the north.

In combating poverty, certain reforms were recommended, which include fiscal, trade, and exchange-rate policies that could help diversify the economy; invigorating structural transformation; and creating good, productive jobs, especially wage jobs.

World Bank economists, Jonathan Lain and Jakob Engel, have said that rising inflation, persistent population growth, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine are threatening Nigeria’s poverty reduction aspiration.

In June last year, the President, Muhammadu Buhari, inaugurated the National Steering Committee of the National Poverty Reduction with Growth Strategy chaired by Vice President Yemi Osinbajo.

This, he said, re-echoes his commitment to lifting 100 million Nigerians out of poverty in 10 years, with a well-researched framework for implementation and funding.

Despite this, the rate of poverty in the country seems to be on the rise, driven significantly by inflation.

In its ‘A Better Future for All Nigerians: 2022 Nigeria Poverty Assessment’ report, the World Bank said that poverty reduction stagnated since 2015, with more Nigerians falling below the poverty line over the years.

The Washington-based bank added that the number of poor Nigerians is projected to hit 95.1 million in 2022.

The World Bank also warned that many non-poor Nigerians were only one small shock away from falling into poverty.

According to the lender, such a shock can be induced by the issues of climate or conflict which could further threaten Nigeria’s poverty reduction efforts.

Like the World bank, the International Monetary Fund has said that the rate of inflation in Nigeria is expected to remain elevated in 2022.

Speaking on the development, an Associate-Professor of Economics at the Pan-Atlantic University, Olalekan Aworinde, said the events of the last few months were apt indicators that the inflation rate would increase further.

BIG STORY

Four Nigerian Students Jailed In UK For Fighting With Knives, Baseball Bats

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Four Nigerian students have been sentenced in the United Kingdom for their involvement in a violent altercation that involved knives and a baseball bat in Leicester.

The incident, which took place on New Park Street in the early hours of November 4, 2021, left one victim with multiple stab wounds.

Following a thorough investigation by the Leicester City Police, authorities identified the culprits through CCTV footage, phone tracking, and public assistance.

The six-week trial concluded in October, and the sentences were delivered on November 14.

A report published on the police website last Thursday provided details of the outcome.

Destiny Ojo (21), of Plumstead, London, was sentenced to seven years for violent disorder, attempted grievous bodily harm (GBH), and GBH with intent.

Habib Lawal (21), of Bexley, London, was sentenced to five years for violent disorder, attempted GBH, and GBH with intent.

Ridwanulahi Raheem (21), of Lambeth, London, was sentenced to three years for violent disorder and possession of a bladed article.

Joshua Davies-Ero (21), of Bexley, London, was sentenced to two years for violent disorder.

A fifth defendant, Justin Asamoah (22), of Merton, had earlier pleaded guilty to possession of a bladed article and is scheduled to be sentenced on November 22.

A spokesperson for Leicester Police praised the public for their help during the investigation and emphasized the importance of addressing violent behavior to ensure community safety.

Detective Constable Sean Downey, commenting on the case, said, “This incident underscores the grave dangers of violent disorder. It is fortunate that the injuries sustained were not more severe or fatal. This could have been a very different investigation.”

He added, “We thank everyone who supported the investigation. As a force, our priority is public safety. Violent behavior will not be tolerated in our communities, and we will continue to take decisive action against offenders.”

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Enugu LGA Chairman Appoints Aides On Garden Egg, Pepper, Yam

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Eric Odo, chairman of Igbo Etiti LGA in Enugu state, has appointed Ezeugwu Ogbonna as senior special assistant on agriculture (yam and pepper).

The appointment was formalized in a letter dated November 1, addressed to Ogbonna.

“I am pleased to inform you that the executive chairman Igbo Etiti LGA has approved your appointment as senior special assistant to the local government chairman on agriculture (yam and pepper),” the letter states.

“You should report to the executive chairman Igbo Etiti LGA, Ogbede, for briefing and deployment,” it continues.

“It is pertinent to note that this is not a career civil service appointment but a temporary appointment which you hold at the pleasure of the executive chairman of Igbo Etiti LGA,” the letter further clarifies.

Odo also appointed Nwodo Ugonna as special adviser on garden egg and pepper.

The council chairman did not specify the exact duties of the appointees.

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NNPCL Admits Challenges Delaying Port Harcourt Refinery Take-Off

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Barely two months after the September completion deadline flop, the Nigerian National Petroleum Commission (NNPC) has explained why it could not deliver the much-awaited Port Harcourt Refinery Company.

In an interview (with The Punch) on Monday, the NNPC Chief Corporate Communications Officer, Olufemi Soneye, said the company encountered risks and challenges while carrying out the rehabilitation, being a brownfield project.

He noted that the NNPC began the commissioning of critical equipment and processing units after the mechanical completion in Nigeria.

“You may recall that mechanical completion of the PHRC revamp was successfully achieved several months ago, marking a significant milestone in the project. Following this, we began the commissioning of critical equipment and process units.”

“However, as is common with brownfield projects of this scale and complexity, we encountered unforeseen risks and challenges,” he stated.

Nonetheless, he told (The Punch) that the issues were resolved and commissioning activities have resumed.

Soneye stressed that work is being carried out to ensure the project’s completion.

“These issues have since been effectively resolved, and commissioning activities have resumed.”

“Work is being carried out around the clock to ensure the successful completion of this critical project,” he told our correspondent.

Asked if there is any timeline for the completion of the project, he replied, “Shortly.”

It was observed that the NNPC desisted from giving new deadlines for the delivery of the refinery, having failed to meet its deadlines seven times.

The moribund Port Harcourt refinery is one of three owned by the Federal Government and managed by the NNPC.

Nigerians have been hopeful that the cost of fuel could crash if the country refines its crude and ends the import of refined products.

The NNPC said last week that it would continue to import fuel, saying it was not the sole off-taker of petrol at the Dangote refinery.

The refinery, situated in Nigeria’s oil-rich Niger Delta region, has been in operation since 1965, but later became moribund for several years.

In March 2021, the Nigerian government acquired a $1.5bn loan for the renovation and modernisation of the refinery, but the contractor handling the project has yet to announce its completion.

It was gathered that promises made to Nigerians by the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources and the NNPC about the refinery have continued to hit brick walls.

After the failure of the sixth deadline in early August, the then Chief Financial Officer of the NNPC, Umar Ajiya, said the refinery would commence operations in September 2024.

However, September ended without a word from the NNPC about the refinery, and Nigerians have been left in the dark since almost two months ago.

Recall that the contractor overseeing the rehabilitation of the Port Harcourt refinery, Maire Tecnimont SPA, refused to disclose the completion date for the project, despite a formal request from a human rights lawyer, Femi Falana.

Apparently baffled by the delay in the completion of the project, Falana had filed an official request under the Freedom of Information Act, seeking clarity on the date set aside for the project completion.

In response, Maire Tecnimont’s legal representative, Muyiwa Ogungbenro, a partner at Olajide Oyewole LLP, sent a letter to Falana in early October, declining to reveal the information.

Ogungbenro stated that the Managing Director of Maire Tecnimont SPA, as part of an independent private contractor, is not obligated to disclose such information under the FOI Act.

“We are counsel to Maire Tecnimont SpA, and we have our client’s instruction to respond to your letters dated 17 and 24 September 2024 requesting information on the contract between our client and Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd.

“Our client is a private company. Being a private independent contractor, our client is not a company in which any government has a controlling interest, and does not provide public services, functions or utilise public funds for them to be bound by the obligations in the Freedom of Information Act.

“On this ground, our client regrettably cannot provide the information you have requested,” Ogungbenro declared.

Since then, information about the refinery has been kept from the public, whose hope for cheaper petrol lies in the facility.

From December 2023, NNPC had been giving Nigerians different dates, assuring them that the refinery would begin the sale of refined products soon, having attained mechanical completion.

In July, the Group Chief Executive Officer of the NNPC, Mele Kyari, stated categorically that the refinery would come into operation in early August. He had said in 2019 that the NNPC would deliver all the country’s four refineries before the end of former President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration last year.

When he appeared before the Senate in July, Kyari boasted, “I can confirm to you, Mr Chairman, that by the end of the year, this country will be a net exporter of petroleum products.

“Specific to NNPC refineries, we have spoken to a number of your committees, and it is impossible to have the Kaduna refinery come into operation before December, it will get to December, both Warri and Kaduna; but that of Port Harcourt will commence production early August this year.”

However, the promise was not fulfilled in August which was the sixth postponement.

Though the NNPC said it was on course, the refinery has yet to commence operations even as the fourth quarter of the year nears the end.

Recall that the 210,000 barrels per day refinery was said to have reached what the NNPC called mechanical completion of rehabilitation work in December. It stated that the facility would start refining 60,000 barrels of crude oil daily after last year’s Christmas break.

Later in January, Kyari said the refinery was being tested and would be ready by the end of the first month.

During the second month of the year, the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited completed the supply of 475,000 barrels of crude oil to the facility, raising the expectations of marketers that production would soon start.

This came a few weeks after the NNPC said in January that it was seeking to engage reputable and credible operations and maintenance companies to run the refinery.

In mid-March, Kyari said the Port Harcourt refinery would commence operations in two weeks, April.

“We are serving this country with honour and dignity. And we will make sure that the promises we make on the rehabilitation of these refineries will take place,” Kyari stated after he appeared before the Senate Ad-hoc Committee investigating the various turnaround maintenance projects of the country’s refineries.

As the April deadline elapsed, independent petroleum marketers told (The Punch) that the facility would begin production by the end of July.

Commenting on this then, NNPC’s spokesman, Soneye, said that regulatory approvals from international bodies were the only impediment stalling the operational commencement of the refinery.

 

Credit: The Punch

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