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BUSINESS: Foreign Investors Sell-Off N576bn Nigerian Stocks In Six Months — NGX Report

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Foreign investors offloaded equities valued at N576.09bn on the Nigerian Exchange from January to June 2025, marking an 84.97 per cent rise compared to N311.41bn withdrawn in the same period of 2024.

These outflows surpassed foreign inflows, which were recorded at N559.25bn, resulting in a net negative foreign portfolio balance of N16.84bn over the six-month period. Data from the NGX’s June 2025 Domestic and Foreign Portfolio Investment Report highlights increased foreign trading activity compared to the previous year.

In the first half of the year, total foreign transactions hit N1.14tn, more than twice the N540.48bn recorded during the same period in 2024. Economists attributed the sharp rise in outflows to global market instability caused by US President Donald Trump’s policies and attractive T-bill yields prompting sell-offs.

Domestic investors were responsible for N3.06tn in trades between January and June 2025, accounting for 72.92 per cent of the total market volume. This reflects a 41.5 per cent rise from the N2.17tn reported in H1 2024. Of this figure, institutional investors contributed N1.59tn, while retail investors traded N1.47tn.

The relatively even contribution from both retail and institutional investors suggests a balanced domestic market presence for the period, although recent data shows institutions are starting to dominate. Overall, transactions on the Exchange reached N4.19tn during the six months, representing a 60.98 per cent increase from N2.60tn in H1 2024.

Despite the higher volume of trades, concerns are growing about the quality of capital flows due to rising foreign outflows and declining retail engagement. Monthly data reveals volatile investor activity, with significant fluctuations in both foreign and domestic trades.

In January 2025, total trades were valued at N346.23bn, with N269.39bn from domestic and N76.84bn from foreign investors. Retail and institutional domestic trades were closely matched at N134.17bn and N135.22bn, respectively. Activity rose to N448.52bn in February, with foreign inflows at N43.67bn and outflows at N47.93bn, reflecting slight net negative flows. Retail trades dipped to N123.38bn, while institutional trades increased to N170.54bn, indicating steady institutional growth.

March recorded the highest transaction value of H1 2025, with N1.29tn in total trades. A major jump in foreign inflows to N349.97bn, the highest for any month, drove this surge. Foreign outflows for March stood at N205.54bn, yielding a net inflow of N144.43bn. Institutional domestic trades reached N273.74bn, and retail trades totalled N212.77bn.

In April, overall market activity declined sharply to N487.39bn. Foreign inflows dropped to N26.47bn, while outflows rose to N70.20bn. Retail trades fell to N174.10bn, and institutional trades decreased to N180.62bn. This decline coincided with US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 14 per cent tariff on Nigerian goods.

Foreign outflows in May remained high at N60.94bn, while inflows stayed low at N24.12bn. Institutional domestic trades increased to N244.13bn, and retail trades saw a marginal rise to N337.46bn. Total transactions for May stood at N700.50bn. In June, trading activity remained strong, with total trades amounting to N778.65bn—the second-highest of the period. Foreign inflows rebounded to N72.82bn, while outflows eased slightly to N66.49bn.

June closed with a net foreign inflow of N6.33bn. Institutional investors led domestic trades at N364.71bn, a 49.39 per cent increase from May, while retail trades dropped by 18.62 per cent to N274.63bn. The six-month foreign investment pattern suggests heightened sensitivity to FX liquidity and policy clarity.

The appreciation of the naira at NAFEM to N1,529.71/$1 in June from N1,586.15/$1 in May may have contributed to the modest recovery in inflows. However, persistent outflows underscore continued concerns about FX repatriation and macroeconomic policy uncertainties.

Institutional investors have increasingly outpaced retail participants in recent months. While both groups were nearly equal in January and February, institutional activity began to exceed retail trades from March onward.

This gap became more evident in June, with institutional trades at N364.71bn and retail trades at N274.63bn. Retail activity peaked in May at N337.46bn before falling the following month, likely due to inflationary pressures reducing disposable income.

With inflation remaining above 22 per cent, households are prioritising essential spending over investment. On the other hand, institutional investors continue to rebalance portfolios, seeking higher returns amid elevated inflation and subdued fixed-income yields.

Despite a 61 per cent increase in market turnover compared to the previous year, the shifting investor mix has raised questions about the durability of market growth. Foreign investors continue to engage with the market but remain cautious, as indicated by sustained outflows.

The growing dominance of institutional investors highlights a concentration of liquidity among a smaller group of market participants. Retail investors, who are vital to market stability and depth, seem to be withdrawing in response to economic challenges.

Financial analyst Johnson Chukwu stated that although inconsistencies in President Trump’s trade policies exist, foreign portfolio investors remain active in Nigeria’s financial markets. He referenced the Q1 2025 capital importation report, which showed that foreign portfolio investment accounted for the largest portion of total capital inflows.

He explained that foreign portfolio investment contributed about $5.20bn of the $5.64bn recorded in the report, with most of the funds going into fixed-income instruments such as treasury bills and OMO. These instruments offered attractive yields—up to 23 or 24 per cent—before the Central Bank reduced treasury bill yields last month.

According to Chukwu, of the $5.2bn in portfolio investments, $4.2bn went into the money market, leaving only $117m in equities. He suggested that foreign investors might view Nigerian equities as overpriced given the over 40 per cent market gain recorded over the past year without significant changes in economic fundamentals.

Olatunde Amolegbe, Managing Director/CEO of Arthur Stevens Asset Management Limited, noted that foreign portfolio investors are typically profit-oriented traders. He said they tend to sell after reaching profit targets but often reinvest. He added that overall inflows indicate many investors are still in the market.

Amolegbe clarified that foreign portfolio investment trends should be assessed on both inflows and outflows. The natural cycle of money coming in, achieving investment goals, and exiting is part of market dynamics.

He highlighted that the equities market is currently outperforming the fixed-income market, with NGX posting nearly 40 per cent returns year-to-date. He said fixed income often serves as the entry point for foreign investors before they transition to equities due to higher returns.

He added that foreign investors initially enter through fixed-income instruments due to safety but eventually move into equities. The fixed-income market also offers more instruments to absorb large capital, given its market size is about three to four times that of equities.

Research analyst Dayo Adenubi explained that foreign portfolio investors typically follow data-driven, short-term strategies. He described their models as complex and quantitative, which contributes to improved liquidity and price discovery.

Adenubi noted that many of these investors operate through actively managed index funds that aim to outperform benchmarks. These funds are under pressure to show strong annual returns, which drives their short-term investment approach.

He added that the focus on achieving “alpha” leads to aggressive asset growth strategies, making foreign portfolio investors highly responsive to market data and quick to adjust positions.

BIG STORY

Reps Release Constitution Amendment Bills, To Vote On State Police Creation Today

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The House of Representatives has released the final print of the Constitution Alteration Bills seeking to provide a constitutional framework for the establishment of state police, among others, scheduled for consideration and voting during Today’s plenary.

The development marks a significant milestone in the ongoing review of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 (as amended).

A statement signed by Spokesman, House of Representatives, Rep. Akintunde Rotimi, noted that the bills represent the culmination of several months of rigorous legislative work undertaken by the House Committee on Constitution Review, following the receipt and consideration of numerous Constitution amendment proposals from lawmakers, government institutions, professional bodies, civil society organisations, traditional institutions, and citizens across the country.

The review process involved extensive stakeholder engagement through zonal and national public hearings, consultative meetings, expert sessions, and town hall engagements held across the six geopolitical zones, ensuring broad-based citizen participation and input.

The Constitution Alteration Bills span critical thematic areas, including: Electoral Reforms, Judicial Reforms, Security and Policing, Local Government Administration, Inclusive Governance and Citizenship, Legislature, Devolution of Powers, Human Rights, Fiscal Reforms, Strengthening of Institutions, Traditional Institutions, and Creation of States and Local Governments.

Of particular priority is the Constitution Alteration Bill seeking to provide a constitutional framework for the establishment of State Police. The proposal has emerged as one of the most extensively debated reform initiatives in the current review cycle, attracting widespread public interest and stakeholder engagement across the federation.

The bill seeks to strengthen Nigeria’s security architecture by creating an additional layer of policing, while providing constitutional safeguards, clearly defined operational frameworks, oversight mechanisms, and delineation of powers between federal and state policing authorities.

According to the statement, its consideration reflects the growing national consensus on the need for innovative and locally responsive approaches to addressing contemporary security challenges.

Commenting on the development, the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives and Chairman of the House Committee on Constitution Review, Rt. Hon. Benjamin Kalu described the release of the final print as a defining moment in the House’s commitment to delivering a more responsive and effective constitutional framework for Nigeria.

According to him, “The release of the final print of these Constitution Alteration Bills reflects the extensive consultations, scrutiny, and bipartisan collaboration that have characterised this reform process. These proposals embody the aspirations, concerns, and recommendations expressed by Nigerians from all walks of life.

“Of particular significance is the proposal on State Police, which responds to longstanding calls for a more effective and decentralised policing framework capable of addressing emerging security challenges across the federation.

“As the House prepares to vote, we remain guided by our constitutional responsibility to strengthen democratic governance, deepen federalism, promote inclusion, enhance security, and build institutions capable of meeting the demands of a modern and prosperous nation.”

The House is expected to vote on the bills during today’s plenary, provided the constitutionally prescribed quorum is attained.

Should the required quorum not be met, consideration and voting will be deferred to the next legislative day in accordance with the Constitution and the Standing Orders of the House, the statement added.

The House of Representatives said it remains firmly committed to an open, inclusive, and transparent constitution review process and to advancing reforms that strengthen Nigeria’s democratic institutions, promote national unity, improve governance outcomes, deepen citizen participation, and respond to the evolving needs and aspirations of the Nigerian people.

 

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BIG STORY

Governorship Aspirants Spent ₦30bn On Primaries — EFCC

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The Executive Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Ola Olukoyede, has said that some governorship aspirants in Nigeria spent between N20 billion and N30 billion to secure electoral victory during the last primary elections, warning that the trend poses a serious threat to democratic governance and fuels corruption in public office.

While delivering the inaugural High-Level Guest Speakers’ Series organised by the Centre for Peace and Strategic Studies (CPSS), University of Ilorin, on Wednesday, the EFCC boss said that huge financial resources deployed during elections often compel elected officials to divert public funds after assuming office in a bid to recover their investments.

He spoke on the theme, “De-risking and Mobilising Critical Stakeholders for Peaceful and Credible 2027 Elections in Nigeria”.

According to him, the huge financial outlay required to win elections often creates pressure on public office holders to divert public funds after assuming office, citing an example of what it requires to win a governorship election.

Olukoyede noted the EFCC remains committed to tackling vote-buying and other forms of financial inducement capable of undermining the integrity of Nigeria’s electoral process.

“The commercialisation of votes weakens the foundation of good governance because it compromises the political recruitment process. Leaders who buy their way into office are more likely to focus on recovering their investments rather than serving the public interest”, he said.

According to him, the anti-graft agency had made several arrests across the country over vote-buying and related electoral offences, with several convictions already secured.

He noted that those prosecuted include politicians, electoral officials, and ordinary citizens found culpable of electoral misconduct.

The EFCC chairman warned that impunity in the electoral process could undermine democracy and national stability, stressing that there must be no sacred cows in enforcing electoral laws.

He also disclosed that the commission plans to deploy drones and other technological tools to strengthen election monitoring ahead of the 2027 general elections, particularly in tracking vote-buying and financial inducements at polling units.

Olukoyede called on political parties and their supporters to embrace issue-based campaigns and reject inflammatory rhetoric that could incite violence.

He urged stakeholders, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), security agencies, civil society organisations, the media, and political actors, to work collaboratively to ensure peaceful, free, and credible elections.

Earlier, the Vice-Chancellor of the University of Ilorin, Professor Wahab Egbewole (SAN), described electoral corruption as a major threat to national security and democratic development.

Egbewole said credible elections are essential for national stability, economic growth, and public confidence in governance, stressing the need for stronger collaboration between academic institutions and agencies responsible for safeguarding electoral integrity.

In his welcome address, the Director of the Centre for Peace and Strategic Studies, Professor G.A. Animasawun, said the lecture series was conceived to provide a platform for proactive engagement on threats to Nigeria’s electoral process ahead of the 2027 polls.

He noted that the initiative would bring together policymakers, security experts, electoral officials, civil society groups, and scholars to develop practical solutions for peaceful and credible elections.

The event attracted representatives of security agencies, electoral bodies, civil society organisations, members of the academic community, and students.

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BIG STORY

US Military Presence in Nigeria Based on Invitation —– AFRICOM

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The United States Africa Command has said its military cooperation with Nigeria is firmly grounded in respect for Nigerian sovereignty and mutual interest, stressing that American forces operate in the country strictly by invitation and within an agreed bilateral framework.

AFRICOM’s Director of Public Affairs, Col Rebecca Heyse, stated this during an X Space discussion on Tuesday, titled “Strengthening Security Through Strategic Information Sharing: United States and Nigerian Military Partnership Against Terrorism.”

Heyse was unequivocal that the partnership was not an imposition.

“Our operations and cooperation with Nigeria are rooted in fundamental respect for Nigerian sovereignty. We operate strictly by invitation and under the US-Nigeria Joint Working Group framework,” she said.

Heyse said the United States remained committed to the partnership for as long as both countries considered it mutually beneficial.

“As long as there are shared security threats and the framework continues to be of value to both countries, the United States remains committed to the partnership,” she said.

The spokesperson for the Defence Headquarters, Maj Gen Samiala Uba, reinforced this position from the Nigerian side, making clear that it was Nigeria, not the United States, that determined the scope and duration of the collaboration.

“The cooperation is at the instance of Nigeria. The competencies, specialised capabilities and expertise the United States brings are things we require, and as long as we require them, we will continue to work together under the Joint Working Group framework,” he said.

Uba disclosed that hundreds of Nigerian military personnel were currently undergoing training in the North-East as part of the partnership, describing the benefits as significant.

“The Armed Forces of Nigeria are benefiting immensely from this collaboration, including skills development and specialised training. There are many operational lessons we continue to learn through our interaction with the United States,” he said.

Presidential spokesman, Sunday Dare, also weighed in, crediting the partnership with improving the pace and consistency of Nigeria’s counter-insurgency operations.

“We want to thank the US government for the active collaboration they have had with our military.

“Nigeria has seen the war against terror increase in tempo and consistency, and we have recorded massive successes in counter-insurgency operations,” he said.

In November 2025, President Donald Trump designated Nigeria a “Country of Particular Concern,” claiming that Christianity faced an existential threat in the country and that thousands of Christians were being killed by radical Islamists.

The Federal Government, however, rejected the allegation of the “mass murder” of Christians and instead sought collaboration with the United States to further prosecute the counter-insurgency war.

On Christmas Day 2025, at Trump’s direction, AFRICOM conducted missile strikes against ISIS militants in Nigeria’s Sokoto State in coordination with Nigerian authorities.

Following the strikes, the United States dispatched around 200 troops to train Nigerian military forces battling Islamist militants.

The partnership has since yielded significant results with the killing of Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, described by some as ISIS’s “second in command” globally.

 

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