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Battle Against Global Inflation Almost Over But Countries Must Prepare For More Economic Shocks — IMF

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the global battle against inflation is nearing its end, with the rate projected to decline to 3.5 percent by the close of 2025.

The IMF noted that this projection is below the average inflation rate of 3.6 percent recorded between 2000 and 2019.

However, despite the “good news” in the fight against global inflation, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s economic counsellor and director of the research department, warned that countries should brace for more global economic shocks due to rising regional conflicts.

Gourinchas made this statement on Tuesday during the launch of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report at the ongoing IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Washington DC.

“The battle against inflation is almost won, after peaking at 9.4 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2022, we now project headline inflation will fall to 3.5 percent by the end of next year. And in most countries, inflation is now hovering close to Central Bank targets,” he said.

Gourinchas said the decline in inflation without a global recession is a major achievement, attributing the progress to the unwinding of supply and demand shocks “that caused the inflation in the first place”.

In addition, the IMF official said improvements in labour supply due to immigration in many advanced countries and monetary policy also played “a decisive” role in keeping inflation expectations anchored.

He said despite the disinflation, risks are now tilted to the downside.

This, according to the IMF economic counsellor, includes rising regional conflicts, especially in the Middle East, which could pose serious risks for commodity markets; shifts toward undesirable trade and industrial policies which could significantly lower output, and a sharp reduction in migration into advanced economies, which can unwind some of the supply gains that helped ease inflation in recent quarters.

“Now to mitigate these downside risks and to strengthen growth, policymakers now need to shift gears and implement a policy triple pivot.

The first pivot on monetary policy is already underway. The decline in inflation paved the way for monetary easing across major central banks.

“This will support activity at a time when labour markets are showing signs of cooling, with rising unemployment rates. However, this rise has been gradual and does not point to an imminent slowdown.”

Gourinchas said lower interest rates in major economies will also ease the pressure on emerging market economies.

Stressing the need to remain vigilant, he said inflation in services remains too elevated, almost double pre-pandemic levels.

The economic counsellor also said a few emerging market economies are seeing rising price pressures, calling for higher policy rates.

“Furthermore, We’ve now entered a world dominated by supply shocks from climate health and geopolitical tensions, and this makes the job central banks harder,” he said.

Given the risks, Gourinchas, therefore, warned that countries need to be prepared and have “some room on the fiscal side” as there will likely be more global economic shocks.

BIG STORY

JUST IN: Jigawa State Governor Loses 24-Yr-Old Son A Day After Mother’s Demise

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Tragically, just one day after the passing of his mother, Governor Namadi of Jigawa has now lost his 24-year-old son.

A statement from the governor’s spokesperson, Hamisu Gumel, confirmed that the governor’s son sadly lost his life in a road accident on Thursday.

“To Allah belongs that which He has taken, and to Him belongs that which He has given, and everything has an appointed time with Him.”

“With a heavy heart and total submission to the will of Almighty Allah, His Excellency Mallam Umar Namadi, Governor of Jigawa State, announces the passing of yet another member of his family; his dear son Abdulwahab Umar Namadi.

“He departed this world this afternoon (Thursday, December 26th, 2024) as a result of a ghastly motor accident along Dutse-Kafin-Hausa Road. “The burial rite is taking place at this moment in Kafin Hausa town, in accordance with Islamic traditions.

“A 24-year-old, late Abdulwahab is survived by his parents and many siblings. “To Allah belongs that which He has taken, and to Him belongs that which He has given, and everything has an appointed time with Him.”

 

More to come…

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BIG STORY

Sokoto Counters Military, Says 10 Civilians Accidentally Killed In Air Strike

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The Sokoto state government says no fewer than 10 civilians were killed when a military air strike targeted suspected terrorists in Gidan Bisa village, Silame LGA of the state.

Abubakar Bawa, press secretary to Ahmed Aliyu, governor of the state, wrote in a statement issued on Wednesday.

Bawa quoted Abubakar Rana, chairman of Silame LGA, as saying that the incident occurred around 6am on Christmas Day, when two military fighter jets “mistakenly” dropped bombs on the village.

Aliyu, who was accompanied by Aliyu Wamakko, leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state, and Muhammadu Maigari Dingyadi, minister of labour and employment, attended the funeral prayers for the victims.

Consoling the villagers, the governor described the incident as “unfortunate.”

“The military jets were on their mission to eliminate criminal armed groups terrorising the state and mistakenly bombed innocent people of this community,” he said.

“We consider this a mistake because the same military had on several occasions successfully raided many criminal hideouts in the state.”

Aliyu prayed for Allah’s forgiveness for the deceased and strength for their families.

Muhammad Sifawa, secretary to the state government, announced a relief package of N20 million and 100 bags of assorted foodstuffs for the families of the deceased.

He also assured that the state government would cover the medical bills of the injured.

The military had denied reports of civilian casualties in the bombing.

Reports said air strikes conducted by the air component of Operation Hadarin Daji, targeting the Lakurawa terrorist group, had inadvertently killed civilians in the Gidan Sama and Rumtuwa communities.

However, Abubakar Abdullahi, joint media coordinator for the operation, said the strikes targeted locations confirmed to be linked to the insurgents.

“All military operations are based on thorough intelligence and reconnaissance missions to ensure precision and protect civilian lives,” Abdullahi said.

“The targets struck in the vicinity of Gidan Sama and Rumtuwa were positively identified as associated with the Lakurawa group, reinforcing the justification for the military action.”

Olusola Akinboyewa, spokesperson for the Nigerian Air Force, told TheCable that the missiles were launched following credible intelligence from multiple sources and confirmatory aerial surveillance.

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Adron Homes Celebrates Christmas With Customers, Reaffirms Commitment To Bridging Nigeria’s Housing Deficit

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As the world embraces the joy and warmth of the Christmas season, Adron Homes and Properties, Nigeria’s foremost real estate company, has extended heartfelt greetings to its esteemed customers while reaffirming its commitment to addressing the nation’s housing challenges.

In a message of gratitude and celebration, Adron Homes expressed deep appreciation to its customers for their trust and loyalty throughout 2024. The company highlighted its unwavering dedication to making incredible housing affordable for all Nigerians, in line with its mission of reducing the country’s housing deficit.

“Christmas is a time to celebrate family, unity, and gratitude,” the statement read. “As we reflect on the year, we are proud to have played a role in making homeownership a reality for thousands of Nigerians. Our vision is clear—to bridge the housing deficit by providing affordable, luxurious, and secure homes for all, regardless of income level.”

Adron Homes has continued to lead the real estate industry by implementing innovative solutions that make homeownership accessible, including flexible payment plans and cost-effective housing models tailored to meet diverse customer needs.

As part of its Christmas and end-of-the-year celebration, the company has launched a special festive promotions ‘Lemon Friday’ aimed at encouraging more Nigerians to join its growing community of homeowners.

“We remain committed to transforming dreams into reality. This is not just about building homes; it’s about building futures and creating opportunities for families to thrive in a space they can call their own,” the statement added.

Adron Homes extended warm wishes to all Nigerians and its global customers, urging them to embrace the season’s spirit of love and hope. “May your homes be filled with peace, joy, and prosperity this Christmas and beyond.”

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