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Nigeria’s External Reserves Hits $34.66 Billion, Highest Record In 13 months

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Nigeria’s external reserves have surged by $1.88 billion, reaching a 13-month high of $34.66 billion as of July 4, 2024.

According to Nairametrics, research shows that this marks the highest level since the introduction of the foreign exchange unification policy in June 2023.

The significant increase in reserves is attributed to a series of financial commitments from Afrexim Bank and the World Bank, including loans, as well as the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) implementation of various foreign exchange reforms.

  • What The Data Reveals

On June 14, 2023, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) unveiled a strategy to streamline the foreign exchange market by merging all segments into a single unified system.

This pivotal shift, aimed at fostering liquidity and stability within the Nigerian FX Market, ironically seems to have precipitated increased market volatility and a precipitous decline in the naira’s value.

When the CBN announced the FX unification policy, Nigeria’s external reserves were at $34.66 billion. However, from July to December 2023, the reserves fluctuated within the $33 billion range.

According to Nairametrics, the external reserve hit $34.66 billion as of July 4th 2024 the highest in over a year.

This is only second to the $34.69 billion achieved on the 13th of June 2023, just before the exchange rate was unified by the government.

Nigeria has been experiencing a surge in exchange rate in the last few weeks ending the month of June above $34 billion for the first time since April. The reserves have continued to swell in July hitting multiple highs that have now culminated in the highest reserve in the last one year.

  • Earlier Challenges

The central bank Governor had to address the issue of the decline at the last IMF Spring meeting, where he said that the decreasing reserves were primarily due to debt repayments and other standard financial obligations, rather than efforts to defend the naira.

However, since then, a gradual and consistent upward trajectory has been observed, coinciding with a period of exchange rate stability with the reserves eventually culminating into the $34.66 billion recorded on July 4, 2024.

In the past one month, the reserves have surged by 6% from $32.78 billion recorded on the same day of the previous month.

  • Policies Driving Reserve Growth

Earlier reports had it that as global forex reserves reached $12.3 trillion at the end of 2023, Nigeria’s forex reserves declined to $32.3 billion, representing just 0.26% of global reserves, down from 0.36% in 2022, mainly due to decreased forex inflows and increased outflows.

The recent rise in FX reserves since May comes after three months of noticeable fluctuations when it plunged to a low of $32.11 billion on April 19, 2024.

This earlier dip may be attributed to increased import demands, payment obligations, or reduced foreign inflows during that period.

The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics also reveal Nigeria received a total capital importation of $3.9 billion in the first quarter of the year.

Most of the inflows were directed towards government debt securities such as treasury bills, OMO bills and bonds.

  • What You Should Know

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) recently urged the CBN to focus on boosting the external reserves.

To ensure a steady flow of foreign exchange into the country, the CBN plans to double the diaspora remittance inflow this year.

Also, Afrexim Bank earlier announced the disbursement of $925 million- another tranche of the $3.3 billion crude oil-backed loan agreement it entered into with the NNPC last year. The bank disclosed this in a statement on its website stating that the current disbursement brings the total payment for the facility to $3.175 billion. This loan is expected to help stabilize the forex market in light of the severe volatility.

The World Bank also recently approved $2.25 billion in loans to Nigeria to boost the country’s economic stability and support its vulnerable populations. This financial infusion is intended to provide immediate financial and technical support for Nigeria’s urgent economic stabilization efforts.

Amid the increase in reserves and financial commitments to Nigeria, Fitch noted that the lack of clarity over the precise size and composition of Nigeria’s FX reserves remains a significant constraint on the nation’s sovereign credit profile.

 

Credit: Nairametrics

BIG STORY

BREAKING: President Tinubu Sacks Women Affairs Minister, 4 Others, Nominates Bianca Ojukwu, 6 Others

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Nigeria’s President, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has removed Barrister Uju-Ken Ohanenye, the Minister of Women Affairs, and Lola Ade-John, the Minister of Tourism, from their positions.

Additionally, Prof Tahir Mamman, the Minister of Education, Abdullahi Muhammad Gwarzo, the Minister of State for Housing and Urban Development, and Dr. Jamila Bio Ibrahim, the Minister of Youth Development, have also been dismissed.

In a related development, President Tinubu has nominated seven new ministers, including Bianca Ojukwu, Jumoke Oduwole, and five others.

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BIG STORY

JUST IN: Bobrisky Falls Ill In Police Custody, Rushed To Hospital

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Popular crossdresser Idris Okuneye, also known as Bobrisky, has fallen ill while in police custody and has been rushed to a hospital.

Sources disclosed that Bobrisky showed symptoms requiring medical attention, prompting his transfer to the hospital for treatment.

Kenneth Udo, the spokesperson for the Nigeria Immigration Service (NIS) and Deputy Controller of Immigration, confirmed Bobrisky’s arrest at Seme Border on Monday.

Bobrisky’s arrest followed the submission of a report by a Federal Government panel investigating claims that he had not served his six-month jail term in prison. The panel, led by Dr. Magdalene Ajani, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry, found no evidence to support the allegations that Bobrisky didn’t serve his term in prison. However, it noted that he received some privileges during his time.

Bobrisky was apprehended by NIS officials at Seme Border for attempting to flee the country and has remained in their custody since.

Efforts to obtain an update on Bobrisky’s health from DCI Udo were unsuccessful, as he did not respond to calls or text messages.

 

More to come…

Credit: Vanguard.

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Battle Against Global Inflation Almost Over But Countries Must Prepare For More Economic Shocks — IMF

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the global battle against inflation is nearing its end, with the rate projected to decline to 3.5 percent by the close of 2025.

The IMF noted that this projection is below the average inflation rate of 3.6 percent recorded between 2000 and 2019.

However, despite the “good news” in the fight against global inflation, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s economic counsellor and director of the research department, warned that countries should brace for more global economic shocks due to rising regional conflicts.

Gourinchas made this statement on Tuesday during the launch of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report at the ongoing IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Washington DC.

“The battle against inflation is almost won, after peaking at 9.4 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2022, we now project headline inflation will fall to 3.5 percent by the end of next year. And in most countries, inflation is now hovering close to Central Bank targets,” he said.

Gourinchas said the decline in inflation without a global recession is a major achievement, attributing the progress to the unwinding of supply and demand shocks “that caused the inflation in the first place”.

In addition, the IMF official said improvements in labour supply due to immigration in many advanced countries and monetary policy also played “a decisive” role in keeping inflation expectations anchored.

He said despite the disinflation, risks are now tilted to the downside.

This, according to the IMF economic counsellor, includes rising regional conflicts, especially in the Middle East, which could pose serious risks for commodity markets; shifts toward undesirable trade and industrial policies which could significantly lower output, and a sharp reduction in migration into advanced economies, which can unwind some of the supply gains that helped ease inflation in recent quarters.

“Now to mitigate these downside risks and to strengthen growth, policymakers now need to shift gears and implement a policy triple pivot.

The first pivot on monetary policy is already underway. The decline in inflation paved the way for monetary easing across major central banks.

“This will support activity at a time when labour markets are showing signs of cooling, with rising unemployment rates. However, this rise has been gradual and does not point to an imminent slowdown.”

Gourinchas said lower interest rates in major economies will also ease the pressure on emerging market economies.

Stressing the need to remain vigilant, he said inflation in services remains too elevated, almost double pre-pandemic levels.

The economic counsellor also said a few emerging market economies are seeing rising price pressures, calling for higher policy rates.

“Furthermore, We’ve now entered a world dominated by supply shocks from climate health and geopolitical tensions, and this makes the job central banks harder,” he said.

Given the risks, Gourinchas, therefore, warned that countries need to be prepared and have “some room on the fiscal side” as there will likely be more global economic shocks.

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