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Debt Servicing To Gulp 123% Of 2023 Revenue — World Bank

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The World Bank has projected that debt servicing will gulp 123.4 percent of the Federal Government’s revenue in 2023.

This was according to a presentation made by the new World Bank Lead Economist for Nigeria, Alex Sienaert, in November 2022, which was obtained by our correspondent.

The document was entitled, ‘Nigeria Public Finance Review: Fiscal Adjustment for Better and Sustainable Development Results.’

The document projected that debt servicing would gulp 100.2 percent of Federal Government revenue by the end of 2022.

This was a decline from the earlier projection in its October Africa’s Pulse report, which is a biannual analysis of the near-term macroeconomic outlook for the region, published during the World Bank/IMF Spring and Annual Meetings in April and October.

In Africa’s Pulse report, the Washington-based bank said that Nigeria’s debt service to revenue ratio could stand at 102.3 percent by the end of 2022.

It described the public debt in Nigeria as concerning due to the rising debt service-to-revenue ratio.

However, the situation would be dire in 2023 as debt surviving would exceed 118 percent of revenue reported in the first four months of 2022.

In his presentation document, the World Bank lead economist for Nigeria noted that borrowing more money was not the solution for Nigeria.

The document read, “Borrowing more is not the solution: debt costs are rising rapidly, squeezing non-interest spending.

“Debt servicing has surged over the past decade and is expected to continue increasing over the medium-term, crowding out productive spending.”

The PUNCH recently reported that Nigeria’s public debt rose to N44.06tn in the third quarter of 2022, with the country struggling with a repayment burden.

According to a press statement published on the website of the Debt Management Office, the total public debt stock rose from N42.84tn recorded in the second quarter to N44.06tn in the third quarter of 2022.

This showed that there was a 2.85 percent increase quarter-on-quarter, with Nigeria acquiring N1.22tn debt within three months.

The DMO said that the increase in public debt was due to new borrowings by the Federal Government to part-finance the deficit in the 2022 Appropriation Act, alongside new borrowings by sub-nationals.

It also noted that the total public debt stock consisted of domestic debt of N26.92tn and external debt of N17.15tn.

The World Bank recently said that Nigeria’s debt, which might be considered sustainable for now, was vulnerable and costly.

According to the Washington-based global financial institution, the country’s debt was also at risk of becoming unsustainable in the event of macro-fiscal shocks.

The bank had said, “Nigeria’s debt remains sustainable, albeit vulnerable and costly, especially due to large and growing financing from the Central Bank of Nigeria.

“While currently the debt stock of 27 percent of the Gross Domestic Product is considered sustainable, any macro-fiscal shock can push debt to unsustainable levels.

“However, the debt to the GDP in Nigeria is rising quickly, and the total stock of debt in absolute value has almost doubled between 2016 and 2020, and without a policy change is expected to reach 40 percent of the GDP by 2025.”

The bank further expressed concerns over the nation’s cost of debt servicing, which according to it, disrupted public investments and critical service delivery spending.

Speaking at the launch of the World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update titled, ‘The Urgency for Business Unusual,’ the Minister of Finance, Zainab Ahmed, admitted that Nigeria was struggling to service its debt.

She said, “Already, we are struggling with being able to service debt because even though revenue is increasing, the expenditure has been increasing at a much higher rate, so it is a very difficult situation.”

A Professor of Development Macroeconomics at the University of Lagos, Prof Olufemi Saibu, criticized the government for over-borrowing.

He said, “I think we are over-borrowing. We continue to rely on international benchmarks which make us lazy in terms of revenue generation.”

BIG STORY

EFCC Allegedly Places Former Edo Governor Obaseki On Watch List, Begins Contracts Probe

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Former Governor of Edo State, Godwin Obaseki, is currently on the watch list of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).

This comes as we learned that the anti-graft agency has launched an investigation into various transactions, including contracts awarded during Obaseki’s tenure as governor.

Obaseki, who completed his eight-year term on November 12, had previously stated that the EFCC intended to arrest him soon after he left office.

His successor, Monday Okpebholo, has since established a 14-member State Assets Verification Committee to scrutinize Obaseki’s time in office.

In a related development, the EFCC on November 2 arrested five Edo government officials who served under Obaseki, including the Accountant General, Julius Anelu, over large withdrawals from the state treasury within a short period.

Despite the ongoing investigations, Obaseki, on November 8, expressed that he was not afraid of being probed by the EFCC. He added that he would be willing to cooperate fully with the agency and account for his tenure.

However, top sources within the EFCC, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter, revealed that so far, the majority of the transactions under Obaseki’s administration have not been directly linked to him.

According to one of the sources: “An investigation has commenced on his administration. He can’t just be invited until the work has got to a certain stage. Some team of crack investigators have been assigned to the case and have been trying to unravel some of the transactions, including contracts awarded under his administration.

“The bulk of the transactions, you can’t trace it to him. He made use of others. There have been leads which we have been following and we hope to get something substantial.”

When asked if Obaseki had been placed on the watch list, another source clarified that while Obaseki is part of the ongoing monitoring, all former governors are routinely watch-listed by the commission.

“All former governors are always on the commission’s watch list whether the commission has something with the fellow or not. We are not going to allow them to jet out of the country and then start going after them when we need them. So that is why we always place all of them on our watch list,” the source explained.

Efforts to reach the EFCC’s Head of Media and Publicity, Dele Oyewale, for comment were unsuccessful, as calls to his phone went unanswered. He had also not responded to a text message sent on the matter at the time of filing this report.

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BIG STORY

Sanwo-Olu Suspends Media Aide For Saying #EndSARS Arsonists Were ‘Hunted, Executed’

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Babajide Sanwo-Olu, governor of Lagos, has suspended Wale Ajetunmobi, his senior special assistant on print media, over comments he made on social media.

In a now-deleted post shared on X on November 23, Ajetunmobi claimed that several individuals involved in the burning of Television Continental (TVC) in 2020 were “hunted down and executed.”

“The full story of people who burnt down TVC in 2020 will be told one day, with gory clips and images. One thing to note: majority of them have been hunted down and executed,” he wrote.

“One of them, a young boy trading in cooking gas around Ketu, was found with AK-47 at the site. Even his neighbours were shocked. But the full gist is better saved for later.”

Ajetunmobi made the remarks in response to a post about recent comments by Reuben Abati, a former presidential aide.

X user @hamoye4real asked Ajetunmobi to clarify what he meant by “hunted down and executed.”

“What do you mean by ‘hunted down and executed’? Are you aware of extra-judicial killings?” the X user inquired.

Ajetunmobi responded: “Lol… you want to create a narrative in your head. What is extrajudicial killing here? Some of the people were chased by soldiers and exchange of fire occurred.

“Then arsonists were overpowered and killed in the process. Others ran away. Is that an extra-judicial killing to you?”

LAGOS GOVERNMENT RESPONDS

In a statement on Tuesday, Gboyega Akosile, media aide to Governor Sanwo-Olu, confirmed the suspension and emphasized that the state government does not condone extra-judicial actions.

“Mr. Ajetunmobi’s suspension follows his misrepresentation of facts on his personal ‘X’ account regarding a past incident,” the statement said.

“The Governor wishes to state categorically that his administration opposes any form of extra-judicial punishment and will not support such actions. That is not who we are. That is not our way.”

PROTESTS AGAINST POLICE BRUTALITY

In October 2020, young Nigerians took to the streets to protest against the notorious Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) and police brutality.

On October 20, 2020, security forces opened fire on unarmed protesters at the Lekki tollgate in Lagos, resulting in multiple casualties.

The following day, on October 21, suspected hoodlums attacked the TVC headquarters, setting the building on fire. These attackers also targeted several police stations and other public and private properties as violence escalated in the wake of the Lekki tollgate shootings.

Reports indicate that security forces killed numerous protesters during the #EndSARS protests in Lagos.

In August 2023, a document surfaced on social media revealing that the Lagos state government had approved N61,285,000 for the “mass burial” of 103 people who died during the #EndSARS protests in the state.

The government clarified that the bodies were not from the Lekki tollgate incident.

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BIG STORY

Nigeria’s GDP Rate Grew By 3.46% In Q3 2024 — NBS

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The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that Nigeria’s annual gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.46 percent in the third quarter (Q3) of 2024.

In its GDP report published on Monday, the NBS noted that this growth rate is higher than the 3.19 percent recorded in Q2 2024.

The bureau also highlighted that the growth rate surpassed the 2.54 percent recorded in the third quarter of 2023.

According to the report, the performance of the GDP during the reviewed period was primarily driven by the services sector, which recorded a growth rate of 5.19 percent and contributed 53.58 percent to the total GDP.

“The agriculture sector grew by 1.14%, from the growth of 1.30% recorded in the third quarter of 2023,” the statistics firm said.

“The growth of the industry sector was 2.18%, an improvement from 0.46% recorded in the third quarter of 2023.”

“In terms of share of the GDP, the services sector contributed more to the aggregate GDP in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the corresponding quarter of 2023.”

The NBS also reported that the nominal GDP reached N71.13 trillion in Q3 2024.

Nominal GDP and real GDP both measure the total value of goods produced in a country in a year. However, while real GDP is adjusted for inflation, nominal GDP is not.

“This performance is higher when compared to the third quarter of 2023 which recorded aggregate GDP of N60,658,600.37 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth of 17.26%,” the bureau stated.

‘OIL PRODUCTION ROSE TO 1.47M BARRELS IN Q3 2024’

The report also revealed that the country recorded an average oil production of 1.47 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Q3 2024.

According to the NBS, this is “0.07 million bpd higher” than the production volume of 1.41 mbpd in Q2 2024 and “0.02 mbpd higher than the daily average production of 1.45 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2023.”

“The real growth of the oil sector was 5.17% (year-on-year) in Q3 2024, indicating an increase of 6.02 percentage points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2023 (-0.85%),” the NBS said.

“Growth decreased by 4.98 percentage points when compared to Q2 2024, which was 10.15%. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 7.39% in Q3 2024.”

“The oil sector contributed 5.57% to the total real GDP in Q3 2024, up from the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2023 and down from the preceding quarter, where it contributed 5.48% and 5.70% respectively.”

‘NON-OIL SECTOR CONTRIBUTED 94.4% TO Q3 GDP RATE GROWTH’

The non-oil sector grew by 3.37 percent in real terms in Q3 2024, which is 0.62 percent higher than the rate of 2.75 percent recorded in the same quarter of 2023, according to the NBS.

The bureau also pointed out that this growth was higher than the 2.8 percent recorded in the second quarter of 2024.

“In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 94.43% to the nation’s GDP in the third quarter of 2024, lower than the share recorded in the third quarter of 2023, which was 94.52%, and higher than the second quarter of 2024, which was 94.30%,” the NBS added.

The non-oil sector, which includes information and communication (telecommunication), trade, agriculture (crop production), financial and insurance (financial institutions), manufacturing (food, beverage, and tobacco), real estate and construction, made positive contributions to the country’s GDP growth.

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