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2023 ANAP Foundation Presidential Polls: Tinubu’s Camp Fires Back, Says NOI Polls Is Inconsistent With Reality

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The data from an opinion poll conducted by the foundation suggests that 21 percent of the electorate are proposing to vote for the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi

According to the statement on Thursday, Anap Foundation president and founder, Atedo Peterside, said the nationwide poll was conducted by NOI Polls Limited in early September 2022.

The poll revealed that 32 percent are undecided on their preferred candidate.
It added that 13 percent each are proposing to vote for the presidential candidate of All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and that of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, who are both tied in second place.

In the poll data, Rabiu Kwankwaso was a distant fourth, with 3 percent of voters proposing to vote for him.

“The gender split of undecided voters shows that 39 percent of women are undecided versus 27 percent of male voters,” the statement reads.
The poll also revealed that 15 percent refused to reveal who they would vote for.

Responding to the viral poll in a statement signed by Bayo Onanuga, Tinubu’s camp dismissed equivocally the NOI polls saying it is inconsistent with reality.
It further accused the NOI of using fake, dubious statistics to package its preferred candidate to the Nigerian voters.

“We are unperturbed by these dubious and unreliable statistics because our research shows that NOI Polls have been off the mark at critical election periods in recent times”.

Analyzing why the NOI polls shouldn’t be a yardstick to measure the success of any presidential candidate in the 2023 election, Onanuga said, “The attention of the APC Presidential Campaign Council has been drawn to a poll conducted by the NOI polls which made wild and incredible permutations on the presidential elections”.

“We are unperturbed by these dubious and unreliable statistics because our research shows that NOI Polls have been off the mark at critical election periods in recent times.
For example, preparatory to the March 2015 presidential elections, NOI published in October 2014 the results of a “Viability Poll” which used the concepts of Familiarity and Net Favourability Position to survey”.

“In the results, NOI claimed that President Goodluck Jonathan has the best overall familiarity rating at 99% and a Net Favourability Probability of ±25.
By contrast, NOI dismissed the then All Progressives Congress candidate, Muhammadu Buhari as a “borderline candidate” who needed ” huge public relations” to shore up his performance”.

“But when the Nigerian people went to the polls, who won? The APC candidate and now President, Muhammadu Buhari”.

“This is not the only instance when the NOI has turned its political bias in an election period to fraudulent statistics”.

“Towards the 2019 presidential elections, and knowing fully that President Muhammadu Buhari was going for re-election for a second term in office, the NOI pollsters embarked on another abracadabra. In June 2017, they issued the results of another poll, that Nigerians prefer a middle-aged president claiming that this poll was inspired by the election of Macron as the president of France and the campaign of the Not Too Young To Run”.

“According to the predictable bias, NOI claimed that 64% said they would prefer to vote for a presidential candidate between the ages of 40 and 50 years, and 15% preferred candidates between 51 and 60. In short, for a presidential candidate in his 70s running for re-election, NOI results meant certain defeat. But when the Nigerian people went to the polls on February 23, 2019, the man the NOI polls had tried to bully with statistics out of the race won again”.

“It is significant that at the time NOI was generating unrealistic figures to boost the ego of President Jonathan, a more serious and independent team of pollsters- Neo-Telligence based in the United Kingdom used geo-demographics and public sentiment analysis to forecast the emergence of President Buhari. By contrast, their empirical analysis showed that two years before the 2015 presidential elections, Goodluck Jonathan’s public approval rating on corruption, insecurity, and the economy had nosedived across most of the battleground states”.

“Our objective profiling of NOI Polls as an anti-APC research organization is grounded on the aforesaid facts and that is why we believe this present report is, in the language of Nigerians, “wuruwuru to the answer”.

“The NOI has chosen the preferred candidate and has decided to use fake, dubious statistics to package him to the Nigerian voters”.

“We know, as a matter of fact, the owners of NOI and where their political interest lies and wish to advise NOI to stop polluting the political system with irresponsible, unscientific, and biased polling so that we don’t expose the puppeteers pulling its strings”.

“Our party is putting every necessary machinery in motion to win the federal elections with a margin that will be too wide to contest. Our candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu recorded the highest votes of a senator across the country under the Social Democratic Party in July 1992. He will do it on a nationwide scale on February 25.2023”.

Meanwhile, in the analysis provided in ANAP Foundation Presidential Polls, Tinubu came tops on the visibility of candidates, “When asked if respondents were aware of the various candidates vying for the Presidency, data gathered showed that 99 percent of the respondents were aware of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC. 98 per cent were aware of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. 95 percent were aware of Mr. Peter Obi of LP and 74 percent were aware of Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP. All other candidates scored below 55 percent in terms of name recognition,” Peterside stated.

The top five reasons why voters are more inclined to vote in the forthcoming elections, according to the poll, are; “The need to tackle insecurity (45 percent), the Economy (20 percent), Education (9 percent), Unemployment (7 percent) and Poverty alleviation (4 percent).”

Peterside however concluded that the poll is inconclusive because the number of undecided voters is large enough to turn the tables.

BIG STORY

Tinubu’s 50% Transport Reduction Scheme May Begin Tuesday

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The proposed 50 percent interstate transport fare price slash by the Federal Government, initially planned to commence on December 20, 2024, may now begin on December 24.

The slash is aimed at alleviating high transport costs during the Yuletide season.

Recall that the Federal Government, through the Ministry of Transportation, announced last Thursday that it had reached an agreement with stakeholders in the road transport sector to support Nigerians who will be travelling during the holiday season.

The government stated that it would cover 50 percent of the transport fare for travelers, alongside the commencement of free rail transportation for citizens on December 20, 2024.

This initiative, according to the Director of Press and Public Relations, Federal Ministry of Transportation, Olujimi Oyetomi, was part of President Bola Tinubu’s broader effort to provide transportation palliatives for Nigerians celebrating Christmas and New Year.

Oyetomi said that the agreement was signed between the Federal Government and key transport stakeholders, including the National Union of Road Transport Workers, the Road Transport Employers Association of Nigeria, and the Association of Luxurious Bus Owners of Nigeria, among others.

The ministry’s spokesperson explained that under the arrangement, passengers traveling from Abuja and Lagos (Oshodi) to various destinations across the country would pay only half of the usual fare.

A senior official in the transportation ministry, speaking on condition of anonymity, stated that while the rail initiative was set to transport 340,000 Nigerians during and after the Yuletide, details about the road transport component remained unclear.

“The minister will most likely unveil the scheme tomorrow (Monday) at the Eagles Square, and detailed information will be provided accordingly.

“We were supposed to commence on the (December) 20th, but due to some imperfections, it has been delayed. By God’s grace, it should start on Tuesday. However, the MoU and other agreements have been adequately signed.”

When contacted, the Chief Executive Officer of God is Good Motors, Enahoro Ekhae, confirmed signing the MoU but noted that the scheme had not yet started.

“Yes, we indeed signed an MoU, but we are yet to begin the implementation,” he said.

When asked about the delay, he responded, “It is the government that can explain that. We, as GIGM, will begin once we reach an agreement with the government to start.”

Meanwhile, it was learned from the Federal Ministry of Finance on Sunday that the initiative was delayed due to funding challenges.

The programme, which was expected to begin on December 20, has been stalled as transport unions await payments promised under the scheme.

Sources at the finance ministry told one of our correspondents that efforts to secure funding were ongoing, with stakeholders hopeful for a resolution in the coming days.

The initiative, which aims to provide subsidized transportation through partnerships with transport unions, was supposed to start at Eagle Square in Abuja but failed to take off.

“We have signed the MoU, but the minister believes that the transport unions should receive their payments before starting, so that we can maintain accurate records,” a source at the finance ministry explained.

“The transportation minister has been working with the finance ministry to secure the funds, including those for the rail component.”

While the rail part of the initiative continues because it is managed solely by the Federal Government, road transport remains stalled due to the lack of government-owned buses.

“The route involves transportation unions. The Federal Government does not have buses to operate the system. We want the transport unions to take ownership and run the program. They are expected to account for the money given to them, as we have monitoring mechanisms in place,” the source clarified.

Despite ongoing efforts to secure funds, the process has been slow. “He (the minister) has been going to finance. He couldn’t secure the funds. That’s why we couldn’t start.”

The plan includes a payment of 50 percent of the agreed average fare to transport unions for each route, covering road trips from Abuja to state capitals and from Oshodi in Lagos to other destinations.

“The government is supposed to pay the transport unions 50 percent of the average fare we’ve already agreed upon for each route,” the source added.

However, no funds have been disbursed yet, leaving transport unions unable to mobilize. “All transport unions with whom we signed the MoU will have to bring their vehicles to Eagle Square. But no one has received any money yet. Therefore, everyone has been asked to remain on hold.”

The source expressed hope that the issue would be resolved soon. “I believe that as early as tomorrow (Monday) morning, the minister will press the Minister of Finance. The finance minister will understand the urgency, as it’s a directive from the President, and they will find a way to release the funds. Then, the process will begin.”

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BIG STORY

Inside Ogun: Wife Flees After Setting Cop Husband Ablaze During Dispute In Iperu

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A wife, Sarah Ayinde, is on the run after setting her husband, a special constable with the Ogun State Police Command, Abidemi Ayinde, ablaze in the Iperu area of the state.

A source, speaking anonymously, said that the incident occurred on December 12 after the couple had engaged in a minor dispute.

The source, on Sunday, disclosed that the dispute escalated, and the wife resorted to setting the cop on fire in a retaliatory attempt.

The source said, “There is an incident in Iperu. A police constabulary was set on fire by his wife. They argued, and the wife set him on fire. He is currently hospitalised.”

Confirming the incident in a telephone conversation (with The Punch), the spokesperson for the state Police Command, Omolola Odutola, on Sunday, said that the victim was hospitalised following the incident.

She narrated that efforts were underway to apprehend the wife.

“On December 12, 2024, at approximately 10:00 a.m., an attempted murder incident occurred in Iperu. Reports indicate that at No. 20 Igboore Street, Abidemi Ayinde, a male special constable with the police division, was set on fire by his wife, Sarah Ayinde, following a minor dispute.

“The victim was quickly taken to the Bolawatife Hospital for medical attention and is currently in a stable condition.

“The suspect, Sarah Ayinde, remains at large, and efforts are underway to apprehend her. The division’s crime branch is conducting further investigations into the matter,” Odutola said.

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BIG STORY

Yuletide: Travellers Battle Unending Price Hikes Ahead Of Christmas

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As Christmas approaches, Nigerians are grappling with a record-high transport inflation rate of 30.54 percent in November 2024, according to the Consumer Price Index report by the National Bureau of Statistics.

This figure, the highest recorded this year, highlights the escalating cost of mobility for individuals and businesses alike.

Throughout 2024, transport inflation remained a pressing issue, consistently surpassing levels recorded in 2023.

In January 2024, the transport inflation rate stood at 25.92 percent, a significant rise from 21.02 percent in January 2023.

The rate stabilised somewhat during mid-year, averaging 25.63 percent in May and June, before accelerating to 27.21 percent in September, when there was an increase in fuel prices.

It reached a new peak in November, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.52 percentage points compared to 27.02 percent in November 2023.

The surge in transport costs has been driven by a combination of economic and policy-related factors.

Chief among them is the removal of fuel subsidies, implemented shortly after President Bola Tinubu assumed office in May 2023.

This policy, while aimed at stabilising public finances and spurring economic growth, led to a sharp rise in petrol and diesel prices, which are critical inputs for road and public transport.

However, there have been controversies around the removal of fuel subsidies.

Earlier reports had it that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) requested an additional subsidy refund of N1.19tn for July 2024, citing exchange rate differentials on Premium Motor Spirit importation and joint venture taxes.

The report revealed that exchange rate differentials stood at N4.56tn as of June 2024 (due to under-recovery on petrol imports between August 2023 and June 2024), but this figure increased to N5.31tn by July 2024.

The NNPCL attributed the rise to fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and unresolved subsidy payments from previous months.

The total figure adds to concerns over the fiscal impact of subsidy payments on the Federation Account.

Exchange rate fluctuations and the rising cost of importing PMS have continued to strain government revenues, raising questions about the sustainability of the partial subsidy framework.

The naira’s depreciation has further compounded the situation, as the cost of imported spare parts and vehicles has risen sharply, forcing transport operators to pass on these expenses to consumers.

Seasonal factors have also played a role, with the festive period typically driving increased demand for travel.

Poor road infrastructure and limited alternatives, such as rail transport, continue to add inefficiencies and costs to the transportation sector, further inflating prices.

This year’s inflationary trends reflect broader economic challenges that have intensified since Tinubu’s inauguration.

Amidst the increasing cost burden on the government for petrol under-recovery, and despite promising to bring down the price of petrol during his campaign, President Bola Tinubu increased petrol price by about 505.71 percent, from N175 in May 2023 to N1,060 in October 2024, inflicting more pain on the already impoverished Nigerians.

Observation shows that the price of petrol was increased at least five times under Tinubu, with an increase in May 2023, another in June 2023, a further increase in September 2024, and two more in October 2024.

When Tinubu took office in May 2023, transport inflation stood at 23.87 percent, according to data from the NBS.

By November 2024, it had escalated to 30.54 percent, marking a significant rise of 6.67 percentage points or 27.94 percent in 18 months.

There has also been a persistent increase in the inflation rate almost throughout Tinubu’s presidency.

In May 2023, Nigeria’s headline inflation rate stood at 22.41 percent, according to the NBS.

By November 2024, it had escalated to 34.60 percent, the highest level in nearly three decades, marking an increase of over 12 percentage points in 18 months.

The naira’s devaluation, from N769 per dollar in June 2023 to an average of N1,550 per dollar in December 2024, has significantly raised the cost of imported goods and services.

The Central Bank of Nigeria responded with aggressive monetary tightening, raising interest rates by 875 basis points in 2024.

Despite these efforts, the rising cost of living continues to strain households and businesses across the country.

Commuters face daily expenses that erode their purchasing power, while businesses, particularly small and medium enterprises, are grappling with increased logistics costs that inevitably translate to higher prices for goods and services.

Amid the rising cost of fuel and transportation, the NNPCL reduced its ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit, commonly referred to as petrol, to N899 per litre.

This decision, coming days after the Dangote Refinery reduced its price to N899, was confirmed by the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria.

The new price indicates a reduction of N141, or 13.56 percent, from N1,040 per litre sold to customers living in the Federal Capital Territory.

PETROAN’s National Public Relations Officer, Dr Joseph Obele, noted that the price reduction by the national oil firm was a response to the competitive impact of deregulation, which had led to increased competition in the downstream sector.

He expressed optimism that PMS prices would drop further before the end of January 2025, given the global decline in crude oil prices and the naira’s recent gain against the dollar.

Also, the National President of PETROAN, Billy Harry, said the price reduction would relieve motorists and Nigerians during the holiday season.

To ease transportation costs during the Christmas and New Year celebrations, Tinubu approved free train rides nationwide from December 20, 2024, to January 5, 2025.

The Federal Government also announced a 50 percent slash in interstate transport fares for the Yuletide season to reduce travel expenses for Nigerians travelling to celebrate Christmas and New Year.

An MOU was signed between the Federal Government and key transport stakeholders, including the National Union of Road Transport Workers, the Road Transport Employers Association of Nigeria, the Association of Luxurious Bus Owners of Nigeria and God is Good Motors.

Under the arrangement, passengers departing from Abuja and Lagos (Oshodi) to various destinations across the country will pay only half the usual fare.

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